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Bitcoin Rebounds to $105,000 After Truce Claimed in Middle East – What’s Next?

Bitcoin reacts sharply to conflict de-escalation as traders turn to on-chain prediction markets like Polymarket for early geopolitical signals.

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Hongji Feng

Author

Hongji Feng

About Author

Hongji is a crypto and tech reporter. He graduated from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism with a Bachelor's and a Master's. He has previously interned at HTX (Huobi Global),...

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Last updated:

June 24, 2025

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Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin jumped to $105,000 following Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Trump posted the peace claims on Truth Social after Iran launched missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar.
Prediction market Polymarket registered a 99% likelihood of a ceasefire shortly after the announcement.
Polymarket is in talks to raise $200 million at a valuation exceeding $1 billion.

Bitcoin price has recovered to the $105,000 level today, after the truce announcement made by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 23.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin briefly reached $106,000 before the price seemingly stabilized at the current stage. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $105,064.

Bitcoin Hits $105K After Trump Announces Israel-Iran Ceasefire

“Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, ‘PEACE!’ I knew the time was NOW. The World, and the Middle East, are the real WINNERS! Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures,” stated Trump on social media.

“They have so much to gain, and yet, so much to lose if they stray from the road of RIGHTEOUSNESS & TRUTH. The future for Israel & Iran is UNLIMITED, & filled with great PROMISE,” he wrote.

"CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE…" –President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/hLTBT34KnG
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 23, 2025

The ceasefire came after Iran launched missiles at a U.S. military base in Qatar. The retaliation has not caused substantial damage or casualties.

Since Trump announced the ceasefire, Israel has accused Iran of initiating another round of attacks. Iran denied the claimed attack.

“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!” wrote Trump.

On the cryptocurrency-based prediction site Polymarket, the possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has jumped to 99% from the previous 8% on June 23. The chance of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal remains fluctuating with a current Polymarket possibility of 44%.

“IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES!” said Trump.

Polymarket Users Bet on Peace as Platform Eyes $200M Raise

According to The Information, Polymarket is in talks to raise $200 million in the latest round of funding with a valuation of over $1 billion.

The decentralized platform raised $70 million from two recent rounds in May, including a Series A of $20 million led by General Catalyst and a $45 million Series B funding round led by Founders Fund.

Bitcoin’s sharp reaction has revived discussion about its use as a geopolitical risk asset. Traders moved quickly following the ceasefire news, reinforcing the view that crypto can respond faster than traditional markets during global uncertainty.

Polymarket’s activity represents growing interest in decentralized tools for gauging political outcomes. The platform’s rising volume suggests users are turning to crypto-based prediction markets for faster insights on diplomacy, conflict, and major international decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What makes Polymarket different from traditional prediction tools?

Polymarket uses blockchain infrastructure to settle predictions on-chain, providing transparent odds and rapid resolution of outcomes.

How does Polymarket maintain credibility and accuracy?

Outcomes on Polymarket are resolved using third-party oracles and predefined criteria, reducing subjective intervention. Disputes are resolved via decentralized governance, which supports integrity and transparency.

Could Polymarket’s growth lead to regulatory scrutiny?

As the platform gains traction and funding, it may attract attention from U.S. regulators, especially given the uncertain legal classification of prediction markets in jurisdictions like the United States.