Kamala Harris Surpasses Donald Trump in Presidential Election Odds on Polymarket
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U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has surpassed former President Donald Trump in the odds for the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket, a popular prediction platform.
Over the weekend, Harris’ chances surged to 52%, reversing Trump’s previous strong lead.
This marks a significant shift in the election landscape, where Trump’s odds have plummeted from 70% in mid-July to just 45% today.
Democrats Launch ‘Crypto for Harris’ Campaign
The Democratic wing of the crypto industry is mobilizing to counter former President Trump’s influence by launching a pro-Kamala Harris advocacy group, “Crypto for Harris.”
The group is organizing a virtual town hall meeting this week, featuring billionaire entrepreneur and crypto advocate Mark Cuban.
The event will also include notable speakers such as SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and several Democratic members of the House of Representatives.
High-ranking Democratic Senate leaders have also been invited to participate in the public event.
The town hall aims to strengthen support for the Harris campaign and boost fundraising efforts.
It is worth noting that Despite Trump’s vocal support for Bitcoin and his generally pro-crypto stance, Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, have largely refrained from addressing cryptocurrency directly.
Walz’s history as Governor of Minnesota includes the regulation of cryptocurrency kiosks, indicating some familiarity with crypto policy.
Meanwhile, Harris’ team has reportedly been engaging in discussions about crypto policy with industry executives.
Furthermore, several White House staff members with crypto experience are said to be shifting to her campaign or related political action committees.
Polymarket Under Scrutiny as Trading Volume Surges
Last week, five United States Senators and three House representatives have called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
The bipartisan group consists of prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.
In a letter addressed to Rostin Behnam, Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the lawmakers highlighted the perilous influence these betting markets could exert on the electoral landscape.
The group expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires leveraging large wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public trust in the democratic process.
The legislators underscored that elections should not be reduced to mere profit-making ventures, as this would fundamentally compromise the integrity of the electoral system.
“Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”
Launched in 2020, Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market platform where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrencies.
The platform uses the USDC stablecoin, allowing participants to buy and sell shares in forecasts related to the likelihood of future events.
Polymarket has recently achieved record-breaking trading volumes.
As interest in the US election grows, the platform reached $1 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time, with $343 million recorded in July alone.
This marks a significant increase of over 200% from the $111 million in June and more than 440% compared to $63 million in May 2024.
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