Chaos on Polymarket as RFK Jr. Suspends Presidential Campaign

Bitcoin Kennedy Polymarket
Polymarket traders had penciled in a 90% chance that Kennedy would drop out Friday.
Last updated:
Author
Author
Ruholamin Haqshanas
About Author

Ruholamin Haqshanas is a contributing crypto writer for CryptoNews. He is a crypto and finance journalist with over four years of experience. Ruholamin has been featured in several high-profile crypto...

Last updated:
Why Trust Cryptonews
Cryptonews has covered the cryptocurrency industry topics since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights to our readers. Our journalists and analysts have extensive experience in market analysis and blockchain technologies. We strive to maintain high editorial standards, focusing on factual accuracy and balanced reporting across all areas - from cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects to industry events, products, and technological developments. Our ongoing presence in the industry reflects our commitment to delivering relevant information in the evolving world of digital assets. Read more about Cryptonews
Ad DisclosureWe believe in full transparency with our readers. Some of our content includes affiliate links, and we may earn a commission through these partnerships. Read more

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced the suspension of his campaign, sparking a frenzy among Polymarket bettors.

A Polymarket wager on whether Kennedy would cease his presidential campaign by Friday has caused controversy as bettors are not sure whether it is resolved or not.

The specific wager, which has attracted over $300,000, stated that the market would resolve in the affirmative if he “officially announces his withdrawal” from the nail-biter November election.

Kennedy Confuses Polymarket Bettors

Polymarket traders had penciled in a 90% chance that Kennedy would drop out Friday shortly before he spoke in Arizona.

However, as he addressed his supporters, the odds took a nosedive to a mere 6% after his declaration that he would not completely abandon his presidential bid but would withdraw his candidacy from critical battleground states like Arizona.

“I’m not terminating my campaign, I’m simply suspending it,” he said.

“Our polling consistently showed by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats, with whom I disagree on the most existential issues.”

Meanwhile, some traders referred to news articles for insights, which further increased the confusion due to conflicting reports from major news outlets.

For instance, one Fox News article that was shared said that Kennedy “dropped his White House bid,” while an article from Reuters said that Kennedy “abandoned his campaign on Friday.”

Notably, this is not the first time Polymarket bettors face controversial outcomes.

Earlier in the year, the platform faced a disputed $680,000 market related to LayerZero’s airdrop, which was eventually settled by UMA—a DeFi protocol that uses token-based voting to resolve disputes through what it describes as its “decentralized truth machine.”

Following Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement, betting odds on Polymarket shifted in favor of former President Donald Trump.

Polymarket Under Scrutiny as Trading Volume Surges

Earlier this month, five United States Senators and three House representatives called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The bipartisan group consists of prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.

In a letter addressed to Rostin Behnam, Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the lawmakers highlighted the perilous influence these betting markets could exert on the electoral landscape.

The group expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires leveraging large wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public trust in the democratic process.

“Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”

Launched in 2020, Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market platform where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrencies.

The platform uses the USDC stablecoin, allowing participants to buy and sell shares in forecasts related to the likelihood of future events.

Polymarket has recently achieved record-breaking trading volumes.

As interest in the US election grows, the platform reached $1 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time, with $343 million recorded in July alone.

More Articles

Features
Strategic Bitcoin Reserves: Everything You Need to Know
Connor Sephton
Connor Sephton
2025-01-16 11:52:03
Opinions
The Wisdom of Crowds: How Blockchain Could Transform Medical Research
Chris Crecelius
Chris Crecelius
2025-01-16 11:01:42
Crypto News in numbers
editors
Authors List + 66 More
2M+
Active Monthly Users Around the World
250+
Guides and Reviews Articles
8
Years on the Market
70
International Team Authors