Ukraine War Reached Prediction Markets Too
The war in Ukraine continues. On one side stands Russia's well-equipped army, and on the other, Ukraine's persistent fighters whose morale has been lifted with recent "strategic" wins. In short, there is a lot of uncertainty.
Using this uncertainty, some speculators are making forecasts on key events using prediction markets, essentially betting on the outcome of the war.
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market that allows speculators to bet on the outcome of real-world events, traders are speculating whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022.
Interestingly, 24 hours earlier, 64% stated Zelenskyy will not be the president on that date. However, that number has now dropped to 53%.
Users can bet on the event by purchasing a contract for "Yes" or "No." The value of the contract depends on the number of traders for and against the resolution.
For instance, when 64% said Zelenskyy would not be the president at the resolution time, the value of that contract was USD 0.64. However, now that 53% says so, the value has also dropped to USD 0.53.
"If the official UA source [...] says Zelenskyy is president at the resolution time, the market will resolve “Yes.” Otherwise, it will resolve “No,”" Polymarket said.
This speculation has garnered a trading volume (the sum of all contracts bought and sold) of USD 117,668 so far.
Futuur, another prediction market, has included a wider range of questions, they said in a press release shared with Cryptonews.com. The platform's most popular forecast is speculations about whether Vladimir Putin would sit his whole term as Russia's president until 2024, which has drawn bets from 938 people. As expected, 72% have voted "Yes."
The platform's second most popular speculation is about the outcome of the war: "Will Russia take Kiev by force by the end of 2022?" Of those who have bet, 54% have said "No."
The market will resolve based on this: "In case Russian armed forces take Kiev through military means by December 31st [...] of 2022, then the outcome of this market will be “Yes”.
Another seemingly controversial speculation is related to Russia and the Global banking payments network SWIFT: "Will Russia leave the SWIFT payment network by March?" In response, 62% have bet "No."
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