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Trump Has A 17% Chance Of Being In Prison Before Election Day, Polymarket Betters Predict

Julia Smith
Last updated: | 1 min read
Trump trial, Donald Trump, trump jail

Republican frontrunner and crypto-friendly U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has a 17% chance of being in jail before voters hit the ballot box in November after being found guilty in his high-profile hush money trial Thursday, according to Polymarket data.

Donald Trump Will Be In Jail Before Election, 17% Of Polymarket Voters Say


Originally launched in January, the market will resolve to a yes if Trump spends more than 48 hours in prison before 11:59 p.m. on November 5.

Currently, one “yes” vote on the prediction market is going for 18 cents, while a no vote costs 85 cents.

As of Friday morning, the odds of Trump going to prison before then had risen 57%.

News of the market’s popularity comes just one day after Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to his 2016 hush-money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels.

The highly-covered trial lasted six weeks and saw several notable associates of Trump take the witness stand, including his former attorney, Michael Cohen, former Oval Office Operations Director Madeleine Westerhout, and Daniels herself.

“This was a disgrace,” the former U.S. president said shortly after the verdict. “This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt.”

Meanwhile, current U.S. President Joe Biden seized the moment to play to voters’ concerns about potentially backing a convicted felon for the presidency.

“A second Trump term means chaos, ripping away Americans’ freedoms and fomenting political violence and the American people will reject it in November,” the Biden campaign said on Thursday.

Will Joe Biden See a Second Term In The White House?


Current polls show Biden and Trump are neck-and-neck in the White House race, with a May 30 Marist Poll showing the former narrowly securing a victory over Trump by just 2%.

Trump has largely embraced cryptocurrencies ahead of election day, going so far as to accept campaign donations in digital assets.

Biden, on the other hand, has favored increased regulation in the blockchain sector, though Trump’s crypto-friendly ideology may force him to loosen his stance.

Judge Juan Merchan will sentence Trump on July 11, though it is unclear how severe his punishment will be.

Convicts’ behavior during their trials often affects the clemency of their imposed sentences, and it may not bode well legally for Trump that he violated a gag order prescribed by Merchan multiple times in recent weeks.