Polymarket Sees Record $116M in Trade Volume Fueled by US Presidential Election Bets

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Ruholamin Haqshanas

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Ruholamin Haqshanas

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Ruholamin Haqshanas is a contributing crypto writer for CryptoNews. He is a crypto and finance journalist with over four years of experience. Ruholamin has been featured in several high-profile crypto...

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July 16, 2024

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Decentralized predictions platform Polymarket has registered record trade volumes fueled by the anticipation surrounding the United States presidential election.

In the first half of July alone, the platform recorded a staggering $116.4 million in volume, surpassing its previous highest month of $111.5 million in June.

The surge in trading activity can be directly attributed to speculators engaging in bets on the outcome of the upcoming election.

Political Traders Wager $263M

Political traders have collectively wagered an astounding $263.5 million on predicting the winning candidate for the US election scheduled for November 4.

As of the latest data, prediction traders are favoring former President Donald Trump with a 69% chance of victory, followed by current President Joe Biden at 19%.

Vice President Kamala Harris stands at 6%, while former First Lady Michelle Obama trails with just 2% of the bets.

Since the beginning of this year, Polymarket has witnessed a total of $471.9 million in wagers across various events, encompassing politics, finance, sports, and cryptocurrencies.

The platform has emerged as a go-to destination for traders seeking to speculate on American political events, although it is currently unavailable to traders residing in the United States.

It is worth noting that Polymarket recently concluded a successful $70 million Series B funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founder Fund, with participation from notable figures including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

“Prediction markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy,” Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, wrote in a recent post on X.

“They take free markets and free speech as inputs and output truth. In an age when centralized control of information is a systemic risk, prediction markets offer a way of cutting through misleading narratives and viewing the unvarnished truth.”

.@Polymarket's astronomical success is the most important story in crypto right now, but it's so obvious that we are ignoring it, when we should be screaming it from the rooftops.

Prediction markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy. They take free… pic.twitter.com/XlubHYDicq

— yuga.eth 🛡 (@yugacohler) June 30, 2024

Trump to Attend Bitcoin Conference in Nashville

Trump remains committed to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, after surviving an assassination attempt on July 13 during a rally in Pennsylvania.

David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine and one of the event’s organizers, confirmed Trump’s participation, assuring attendees that the former president is in good spirits.

It is worth noting that Trump’s growing popularity among the crypto community comes as his stance on cryptocurrencies has changed radically as of late.

Despite previously criticizing Bitcoin as a “scam,” he has recently changed his tune.

On June 14, he declared that he would end the Biden administration’s “war on crypto” if elected president.

Trump had also previously criticized Biden for his harsh stance on cryptocurrencies, emphasizing that the United States should strive to be a leader in the crypto industry.

As reported, a survey conducted by the Harris Poll has revealed that one in three voters in the US consider a candidate’s position on cryptocurrencies before making their voting decision.

Another survey conducted by leading crypto venture capital firm Paradigm reveals that Trump’s poll numbers for the 2024 US Presidential Election enjoy significant support from the crypto community.