Lyn Alden Says Bitcoin Would Be Higher if Not for Trump’s Tariff Shock

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Ruholamin Haqshanas

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Ruholamin Haqshanas

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Ruholamin Haqshanas is a contributing crypto writer for CryptoNews. He is a crypto and finance journalist with over four years of experience. Ruholamin has been featured in several high-profile crypto...

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April 18, 2025

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Prominent macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin is on track to finish 2025 above its current price of around $85,000.

“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said during an April 17 interview with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories.

While she still expects Bitcoin to post gains by year-end, Alden noted that the tariffs introduced in February have tempered her earlier bullish outlook.

Lyn Alden Says Liquidity Surge Could Propel Bitcoin to Higher Targets

Alden explained that a major liquidity boost could push Bitcoin toward more ambitious targets.

Such a scenario might occur if the U.S. bond market faces a crisis, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond with quantitative easing or yield curve control.

Despite current macro headwinds, Alden believes there is still a “good chance” Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 mark in 2025.

However, she warned that global market volatility remains a key obstacle, especially because Bitcoin trades continuously — unlike traditional equity markets with limited trading hours.

“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she said, pointing out that Bitcoin often reacts first to market jitters due to its round-the-clock nature.

While its correlation to tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100 has been noted, Alden believes Bitcoin can sometimes diverge, particularly when broader market conditions weigh on U.S. equities without directly impacting global liquidity.

She drew comparisons to the period between 2003 and 2007, when a weak U.S. dollar cycle fueled capital flows into commodities, emerging markets, and gold — bypassing U.S. stocks.

A similar environment could prove favorable for Bitcoin, Alden suggested.

“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” she added.

In a previous research report published in September, Alden described Bitcoin as a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” noting it moves in sync with global M2 money supply 83% of the time over any given 12-month stretch.

Bitcoin Could Face Extended Consolidation Despite Bullish Hype: 10x Research

As reported, 10x Research’s head of research Markus Thielen has argued that Bitcoin may be entering a period of extended consolidation.

In a recent market note, Thielen warned that short-term technical signals are painting a more cautious picture, even as many analysts forecast new all-time highs by mid-year.

Thielen pointed to the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator, a technical indicator that measures momentum, suggesting the market is displaying traits more consistent with a late-cycle top than the beginning of a new bull run.

While Thielen urges caution, other analysts maintain a more bullish stance.

Economists Timothy Peterson and Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, expect Bitcoin to hit new highs in Q2.

Last week, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reiterated his December prediction that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 before the close of 2025.

Hougan argued that recent developments in U.S. trade policy, particularly under former President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff push, could act as tailwinds for Bitcoin.