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Expert Trader Peter Brandt Says 50% Chance Bitcoin Can Go to Zero

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Sead Fadilpašić

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Sead Fadilpašić

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Sead specializes in writing factual and informative articles to help the public navigate the ever-changing world of crypto. He has extensive experience in the blockchain industry, where he has served...

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Last updated:

October 23, 2023

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Veteran trader and technical analyst Peter Brandt reiterated that the price of bitcoin (BTC) has a 50% chance to drop to $0 – also noting that the world’s number one crypto has an “asymmetrical reward-to-risk trade.”

Brandt stated that, for more than four years now, he has been saying that BTC can indeed climb to hundreds of thousands of dollars per coin – and that it has a 50% chance to accomplish this.

At the same time, the remaining 50% could lead BTC in the very opposite direction as a complete failure.

“This I still believe,” wrote the trader, “but it means that BTC represents a highly asymmetrical reward-to-risk trade.”

Dating back to 2018 I have without apology stated that Bitcoin $BTC has a 50% chance to go to $100,000/$250,000/whatever and 50% chance to go to $Zero. This I still believe, but it means that #BTC represents a highly asymmetrical reward-to-risk trade pic.twitter.com/Iop7HIMkE3
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 2, 2022

How low could BTC drop before the bull returns?

Just yesterday, Brandt asked his 676,427 followers on Twitter how low they think BTC can fall before the next bull market begins. A majority of 24,223 voters, or 41.5%, said $12,000, while 30% argued that a low has already been established.

Poll on Bitcoin
How low will $BTC decline before the next bull market?
Chose the one closest to your belief
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 1, 2022

Back in February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, BTC showed resilience despite widespread sell offs in the global markets.

“I think we need a [washout] on big volume in BTC to purge the last of the laser eyes. I am thinking sub $27,000 then I will take a look. We could bounce from $30,000 first, we will see,” Brandt told Cryptonews.com at the time. He added that the longest-term narrative for BTC was still valid.

In June, Brandt wrote that the $20,000 level, which marked the high of the 2017 bull market, “could provide [a] relief rally” for bitcoin, although he appeared less optimistic about the longer-term outlook, stressing:

“But remember — relief rally only.”

On Monday morning (8:25 UTC), BTC was trading unchanged over the past day, sitting at $19,198. Over the past week, it went up 2.1%. It dropped nearly 4% in a month and 60% in a year. It’s also down 72% from its all-time high of $69,044 recorded in November last year.