Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model and Its Proponents Under Fire Again as Failure Becomes Obvious
The Bitcoin (BTC) stock-to-flow (S2F) model created by the pseudonymous analyst PlanB is once again facing scrutiny in the crypto community, after failing completely in its price prediction so far this year.
According to the original S2F model and comments from PlanB, who now has 1.8m followers on Twitter, BTC should have reached a price of at least USD 98,000 by November last year. When that didn’t happen, PlanB came out with another prediction, saying instead that BTC will have “an average price over this halving cycle” of at least USD 100,000.
If that doesn’t happen, “S2F fails,” PlanB wrote at the time.
Now, more than six months later, BTC is trading at around USD 20,000 while we are around halfway to the next Bitcoin halving.
The failed predictions since the third Bitcoin halving in May of 2020 have already led PlanB to develop a new S2F model. This new model was shared in a tweet by the analyst on Monday this week, where PlanB also claimed that BTC is now either “extremely undervalued and will bounce back soon,” or that the model “will be less useful in the future.”
On Tuesday, a number of leading voices in the crypto community gave their two sats: for instance, Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that the stock-to-flow model “is really not looking good now.”
“I know it's impolite to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that number-will-go-up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get,” Buterin opined.
It didn’t take long for PlanB to respond to Buterin, saying that some people “are looking for scapegoats for their failed projects or wrong investment decisions,” and that "leaders" within the community can also play victims, not just the newcomers.
Others joined in on the discussion, with the long-time S2F-critic Eric Wall, the chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund Arcane Assets, posting a long Twitter thread where he shared his take on the situation.
Among other things, Wall opined that “charlatans” can easily create several anonymous identities online where each one creates a bitcoin price model, writing:
“Make 5, or why not 10 identities, maybe one will be right. It’s Disneyland for charlatans.”
Wall once again brought up the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, a model he said has “worked exactly as well as S2F even while S2F was working.”
Meanwhile, others on Twitter also offered their two cents on the failing S2F model:
- 'Failing' S2F Model Refuels Debate on Bitcoin Price Model’s Usefulness
- BTC Rainbow Proponent Wants to Bet USD 1m that S2F Advocates Are Wrong
- New ‘Red Dot’ and Criticism Hit Bitcoin S2F Model