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Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Falls to Lowest Level in a Month – Where is the Next Support?

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 4 min read
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin price prediction is currently in focus as BTC falls to its lowest level in a month, trading at $64,295. Recent net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, amounting to $139.88 million, have pressured BTC prices.

Major outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC and Fidelity’s FBTC contrast with BlackRock’s IBIT, which saw a net inflow. Additionally, economic data and Fed policy expectations suggest potential market shifts that could influence Bitcoin’s next support levels.

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Market Developments Impact BTC Prices

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of $139.88 million for five consecutive days. Major outflows include $53 million from Grayscale’s GBTC and $51 million from Fidelity’s FBTC. Conversely, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net inflow of $1 million. The total trading volume for these ETFs fell to $1.16 billion from $1.7 billion earlier in the week.

In other news:

  • Australia’s ASX listed its first spot Bitcoin ETF.
  • US issuers are preparing to launch spot Ethereum funds, resubmitting forms to the SEC by Friday.

These ETF outflows and reduced trading volumes exert downward pressure on BTC prices. However, institutional confidence and upcoming Ethereum funds might provide some support and mitigate significant losses.

Economic Data and Fed Expectations Influence Bitcoin Prices

Disappointing US economic data released has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin easing its policies, helping to limit Bitcoin’s losses. Markets are now anticipating a possible interest rate cut at December’s policy meeting, despite the Fed’s initially hawkish stance.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested it could take a year or two to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin emphasized the Fed’s readiness to address policy issues with available tools and the importance of staying responsive to economic data.

Key data points include:

  • Unemployment benefits dropped to 238,000 for the week ending June 15, slightly above expectations of 235,000.
  • Housing Starts decreased by 5.2% in May to an annual rate of 982,000 units, and Building Permits fell 2.9% to 949,000 units.
  • The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 1.3 in June from 4.5 in May.
  • On Friday, at 13:45, USD Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7, and Services PMI increased to 55.1.
  • At 14:00, Existing Home Sales reached 4.11M, slightly above the 4.08M forecast.

This stronger economic data supports the USD, which can put downward pressure on Bitcoin as investors may favor traditional assets over cryptocurrencies.

MicroStrategy’s Major Bitcoin Acquisition and Its Impact

MicroStrategy significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings by acquiring 11,931 Bitcoins for $786 million between April 27, 2024, and June 19, 2024. This purchase, funded by a successful private offering of convertible senior notes yielding approximately $800 million, saw the company paying an average of $65,883 per bitcoin.

MicroStrategy holds a total of 226,331 bitcoins valued at $8.33 billion, with an average acquisition cost of about $36,798 per bitcoin, including all expenses. This strategic move underscores MicroStrategy’s ongoing commitment to Bitcoin as a cornerstone of its financial strategy.

This significant acquisition by MicroStrategy, funded through convertible notes, could bolster Bitcoin sentiment. It highlights institutional confidence and may help stabilize BTC amidst market fluctuations.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading at $64,295, showing a slight increase of 0.02%. The key pivot point is set at $64,650, marked by the green line, which will play a crucial role in determining the next directional move. In fact, the closing of candles below this level suggests a bearish Bitcoin price prediction.

Immediate resistance levels are observed at $65,139, $65,568, and $65,581. These resistance points highlight potential selling pressure if Bitcoin attempts to rise.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $64,290, with further support levels at $63,437 and $62,870. These support levels could serve as potential buying opportunities should the price decline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 42.55, indicating a neutral trend.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $65,568, suggesting a bearish outlook as the current price is below this average.

Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Source: Tradingview

The violation of the symmetrical triangle pattern suggests an increased likelihood of a selling trend. Based on the technical indicators and the current price action, a sell position is recommended below $64,650 to capitalize on the anticipated downward movement.

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s technical setup indicates that selling pressure may dominate below the pivot point of $64,651. Traders should watch the resistance and support levels closely to make informed decisions.

The bearish sentiment is reinforced by the price being below the 50-day EMA and the neutral RSI. A sell strategy below $64,650 could be beneficial given the current market conditions.

Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.