Has Bitcoin Entered Its Next Bull Market Cycle? This Analyst Thinks It Might Have
Bitcoin may be at the start of a bull market that could last another nearly 1000 days, according to chart analysis from the pseudonymous crypto-focused Twitter account @CryptoHornHairs. According to a chart shared by CryptoHornHairs on the 11th of January, Bitcoin is at the beginning of a near four-year market cycle that it has followed closely since 2015.
$BTC #Bitcoin— HornHairs 🌊 (@CryptoHornHairs) January 12, 2023
2015-2017 bull market: 1064 days
2017-2018 bear market: 364 days
2018-2021 bull market: 1064 days
2021-*current* market low: 364 days
Days left until the top if we just carbon copy the cycle timeframe again: 1001 days pic.twitter.com/KoNZxJRuy5
According to CryptoHornHair’s analysis, the first 1064 days of each cycle involves a massive rally from the previous bear market trough. Once the market has peaked, it then enters a 364-day bear market. This pattern was followed exactly in the last two cycles. That implies that Bitcoin should rally over the coming years and peak in 994 days (1001 days at the time of CryptoHornHair’s post), before entering a 364-day bear market.
Music to Bullish Ears
This is exactly the kind of news the longer-term Bitcoin bulls want to hear, with prices having pushed back above and held to the north of the $20,000 level in recent days as some declare the 2022 bear market over. Some analysts think that with US price pressures (CPI, PPI and wage growth) easing faster than expected and indicators of US growth slowing faster than expected, the Fed (despite its insistence to the contrary) may be forced to cut interest rates before long, a belief that is propping up the market at present.
It is worth noting that, even if Bitcoin does end up following its historic four-year market cycle to the letter once again, the gains enjoyed during the coming bull market phase aren’t likely to match those seen in the past. In the 2015 to late 2017 bull market, Bitcoin posted a near 13,000% rally before the bear market began. Meanwhile, during the late 2018 to late 2021 bull market, Bitcoin gained a still impressive but far more moderate 2,000% rally.
Perhaps this time a prolonged bull market could see Bitcoin peak under 1,000% above its recent trough close to $15,500. Not that anyone would be complaining about a 1,000% rally from recent lows. That implies Bitcoin nearing $175,000 in 2025.
Other Bullish Signs
Other major technical and on-chain indicators will also give hope to the bulls. Firstly, Bitcoin’s rally since the start of 2023 has seen it surge back to the north of its 200-Day Moving Average for the first time since right at the end of 2021. The 200DMA was last just above $19,500. Whilst not always the case, major breaks back above the 200DMA have been a good indicator of sustained upside in the past.
Elsewhere, according to Glassnode data, Bitcoin has also recently pushed back to the north of its Realized Price. The Realized Price is essentially the average price that was “paid” for each Bitcoin at the time when each Bitcoin last moved. Historically, a sustained break back above the Realized Price after a prolonged period below it (which has been the story of the last few months) is a signal that the next bull market has begun.
Another similar indicator called Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), has also recently moved back into positive territory, according to Glassnode data. That suggests the average wallet on the Bitcoin network is back in profit. Typically, a recovery of the NUPL indicator back into positive territory after a prolonged spell in red signifies that a new bull market has begun.
Altcoins to Consider
Cryptocurrency markets have been performing well since the start of 2023, but the longer-term bear market remains very much still in play. Investors might still want to consider diversifying their holdings with the discounted presale tokens of some promising, up-and-coming crypto projects. Here is a list of a few that analysts at InsideBitcoins think have the potential to perform well.
FightOut (FGHT) – Presale on Now
The young move-to-earn crypto niche has shown a lot of promise, but early success stories like STEPN have significant limitations that have, so far, prevented them from conquering the mainstream. FightOut, which touts itself as the future of move-to-earn, wants to change that in 2023. FightOut is a brand new web3 fitness application and gym chain that rewards its users for working out, completing challenges and competing within a first-of-its-kind fitness metaverse.
While existing M2E applications such as STEPN only track steps and require expensive non-fungible token (NFT) buy-ins to take part, FightOut takes a more holistic approach to tracking and rewarding its users for their exercise and activity, and doesn’t require any expensive buy-ins to take part. FightOut seeks to combine the physical and web3 worlds.
The project aims to eventually acquire gyms across all of the world’s major cities, whilst simultaneously promoting an integrated web3 fitness experience. At the center of FightOut’s digital ecosystem will be its smartphone application which, according to FightOut’s whitepaper, is scheduled for launch in Q2 2023.
The FightOut app will harness smartphone and wearable technology to measure and track physical performance. The app will have its own in-house tokenized economy, where users can earn rewards for completing M2E tasks, and can mint their own soul-bound token avatar, through which the user will be able to interact with the FightOut metaverse.
FGHT is the token that powers the FightOut metaverse ecosystem. Users will pay to enter competitions and leagues with FGHT, and winning will be paid out in FGHT.
FGHT can also be used in peer-to-peer fitness wagers. FightOut’s FGHT tokens are currently selling for 60.06 per 1 USDT, and interested investors are encouraged to move fast to secure their tokens, with the pre-sale having already raised close to $3.0 million in just a few weeks. FGHT is the token that will power the FightOut crypto ecosystem.
Calvaria (RIA) – Pre-sale Nearly Over
RIA, the token that will power afterlife fantasy-themed NFT battle card game Calvaria, is also currently in presale. The play-to-earn (P2E) crypto gaming start-up has raised close to $3.0 million in just a few months since the launch of its pre-sale. Only around 12% of its tokens remain up for grabs.
Calvaria seeks to bring crypto gaming into the mainstream by tapping into a huge, existing market – the market for physical battle card games (think viral sensations of the past like Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh). And with the crypto gaming space expected to grow from $4.6 billion in size in 2022 to $65.7 billion in size by 2027, according to an analysis by Markets and Markets, there is plenty of room for massive growth. Calvaria is set to launch its headline fantasy-themed card game “Duels of Eternity” in Q2 2023.
C+Charge (CCHG) – Presale Now On
The carbon credit industry is projected to be worth $2.4 trillion by 2027. Democratizing access to accrue these benefits is going to massive business in the years ahead and this is something crypto start-up C+Charge hopes to achieve. C+Charge is currently building a blockchain-based Peer-to-Peer (P2P) payment system for EV charging stations that will allow the drivers of electric vehicles (EVs) to earn carbon credits.
C+Charge aims to boost the role of carbon credits as a key incentive for the adoption of EVs. At present, large manufacturers of EVs like Tesla earn millions from selling carbon credits to polluters. C+Charge wants to democratize the carbon credit market by allowing more of these rewards to find themselves in the hands of the EV owners, rather than just the big businesses.
C+Charge has just started its pre-sale of the CCHG token that its platform will use to pay at EV charging stations. Tokens are currently selling for $0.013 each, though by the end of the presale, this will have risen by 80%. Investors interested in getting in early on a promising environmentally friendly cryptocurrency project should move fast, with the project having already raised over $300,000 in just a few weeks since the presale launch.
Investors should note that the remaining tokens could be scooped up quickly. A crypto whale recently scooped up over $99 worth of CCHG in one transaction, as can be verified here on BscScan.
Meta Masters Guild (MEMAG)
Meta Masters Guild is an up-and-coming web3 mobile gaming ecosystem that says its wants to create fun and addictive games that utilize non-fungible tokens (NFTs), allowing community members to earn rewards, as well as stake and trade. Game development is already underway, with the team set to launch their first title Meta Karts in the coming months.
The promising crypto gaming start-up is currently conducting a presale of its MEMAG tokens, which are currently being sold for $0.007 each. According to some observers, this is a steal. Moreover, this price will have risen to $0.023 by the seventh stage of the presale, meaning early investors could be sat on paper gains of over 300% by the time the presale ends.