Bitcoin Could Rebound 21% This Week as October Trends Favor Recovery, Economist Says

Bitcoin may be primed for a sharp rebound after last week’s steep sell-off, according to economist Timothy Peterson, who believes the world’s largest cryptocurrency could climb as much as 21% in the next seven days if October’s historical patterns hold.

“Drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare,” Peterson wrote on X Friday, noting it has only happened four times in the past decade, in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021.

In three of those years, Bitcoin rallied immediately afterward, gaining 16%, 4%, and 21%, respectively, while only 2021 saw a minor decline of 3%.

October Lives Up to ‘Uptober’ Hype as Bitcoin’s Second-Best Month on Record

October’s reputation as “Uptober” continues to strengthen. Since 2013, it has been Bitcoin’s second-best performing month, delivering an average return of 20.1%, behind only November’s 46% average.

Peterson’s comments followed a dramatic market correction on Friday when Bitcoin briefly dipped below $102,000 after US President Donald Trump confirmed plans for a 100% tariff on Chinese imports.

The market has since stabilized, with Bitcoin trading near $111,700, recovering from an earlier high of $125,100 set on Monday, according to CoinMarketCap.

Drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare. This has happened only 4 times in the past 10 years.

Oct 24 2017
Oct 11 2018
Oct 23 2019
Oct 21 2021

What happened next? 7 days later bitcoin was
2017: up 16%
2018: up 4%
2019: up 21%
2021: down -3% pic.twitter.com/mbFs19RbwL

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 10, 2025

If Bitcoin mirrors its strongest October rebound, the 21% surge seen in 2019, a similar move from Friday’s low would push the price back to around $124,000, just shy of its recent record.

Despite last week’s turbulence, many Bitcoin advocates remain bullish. Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, reminded traders that “there are still 21 days left in Uptober.”

Meanwhile, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, called the latest dip “the bottom of the current cycle.”

Others have taken a broader view. The Bitcoin Libertarian argued that massive liquidation events are part of the asset’s natural evolution, predicting that even when Bitcoin trades near $1 million, similar volatility will persist.

In a few years #Bitcoin will crash from $1M to $0.8M in a few hours and we’ll all be talking about a new record high amount of liquidations

Let history repeat 🤗

— The ₿itcoin⚡️Libertarian (@TheBitcoin__) October 11, 2025

Analyst Warns Bitcoin Faces Decisive 100-Day Window

Bitcoin may be nearing a critical turning point, according to trader Tony “The Bull” Severino, who believes the next 100 days could determine whether the cryptocurrency enters a parabolic rally or ends its current bull cycle.

Severino pointed to the Bollinger Bands indicator on Bitcoin’s weekly chart, which has tightened to levels unseen before, often a precursor to sharp price moves in either direction.

Severino cautioned that “head fakes,” or false breakouts, are common during such setups. He noted Bitcoin recently failed to break above the upper band with strength after briefly touching $126,000, suggesting a potential dip before any sustained rally.

Currently, BTC trades around $122,700, hovering below its record highs as volatility compresses further.

While some analysts fear a looming breakdown, others argue that Bitcoin’s cycles are getting longer, hinting at more room for growth.