Linea Airdrop: Will the Token Fail or Breathe Life into L2s?
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Key Takeaways:
- Linea is scheduled to launch its token in Q1 2025, with pre-market pricing exceeding $3.
- Linea’s airdrop will play a crucial role in its network activity and reputation.
- While Linea shows stable metrics, the overall Layer 2 market faces challenges, as seen with Scroll and Starknet.
Linea (LINEA) is set to launch its token in Q1, though no exact date has been given. Will it be yet another failed Layer 2 (L2), or is real change finally coming?
Linea is a Layer 2 protocol for Ethereum (ETH). The mainnet was launched on Aug. 16, 2023, and the project published its roadmap in January 2025. The plan outlines the launch of the LINEA token in Q1, which will be a key event for the project.
According to Logx data, LINEA’s price has already risen above $3 in the pre-market. At the end of January, the token was valued at around $2.4. However, this doesn’t guarantee the project’s success or further growth after listing.
The problem is that although L2 is a solid product—technically as well—and plays an important role for Ethereum, its tokens show little price growth. L2 coins significantly lag behind their Layer 1 (L1) competitors.
According to Dune data, L1 coins have fallen by 28% year-to-date (YTD), accounting for the current correction, while L2 coins are near the bottom of the rankings with a 43% drop.
This may be due to Ethereum’s current struggles—its price decline and disagreements between Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation. In theory, the stronger ETH performs, the better it is for L2s, as their success is interconnected.
However, the Linea network has been operating for 1.5 years and has secured its place among other L2s. Let’s take a look at the chain data to see if the project has potential.
Linea and Competitors
Airdrops typically influence network activity and indicate the level of market anticipation.
In its annual report on the crypto industry, Binance noted that Linea has outpaced other zero-knowledge rollups (zk-rollups) in daily active addresses. Peak activity occurred between July and August 2024, surpassing 750,000 daily active addresses.
By the end of the year, Linea’s daily active addresses declined to around 41,000 but remained higher than competitors like Scroll (SCR), Starknet (STRK), and zkSync Era.
Analyzing post-airdrop data will be essential to gauge Linea’s future trajectory. However, it is worth noting the “weakness” of competitors, particularly Scroll.
Scroll was among the most anticipated airdrops of 2024. After the SCR airdrop and its October listing, users expressed disappointment over token allocations, accusing the project of an unfair distribution.
Scroll’s price has dropped approximately 60% from its all-time high (ATH), currently sitting at $0.57. It recently hit a low of $0.48 on Feb. 3.
Starknet’s situation is even more dire. STRK has lost nearly 95% of its value compared to its ATH, falling from $4.41 to around $0.25.
Despite these challenges in the broader L2 landscape, Linea secured a spot in the top 10, ranking 7th with $541 million in total value secured (TVS), also known as total value locked (TVL). However, it trails behind zkSync Era (4th place) and Starknet (5th place).
The L2 leaders are clear: Arbitrum (ARB) holds 1st place, followed by Base and Optimism (OP) in 2nd and 3rd, respectively.
Interestingly, in May 2024, Linea was not far behind Arbitrum in on-chain profit, recording $612,000 compared to Arbitrum’s $802,000. Base, however, led with $6.98 million, partly driven by the growth of the decentralized exchange (DEX) Aerodrom.
By January 2025, Linea entered the top 5 rollups in on-chain profit, ranking 4th with $369,570. While this is about 1.5 times lower than in May 2024, it likely reflects the broader crypto market correction.
Will Linea Succeed or End Up Like Scroll?
Linea may become a breath of fresh air for other L2 projects. Despite the intense competition among Layer 2 protocols, as many such chains exist, one Arbitrum alone cannot handle Ethereum’s load. Moreover, each protocol has its specifics. The project’s prospects depend on several factors
ConsenSys, the company behind Linea’s development, is also responsible for one of the most well-known crypto wallets, MetaMask. This association may add reputational value to Linea.
Linea’s prospects also hinge on the upcoming airdrop. Unfortunately, “unsuccessful” token distributions have become common in the crypto industry. The recent hype around Berachain (BERA), dubbed the “Ethereum killer,” is a prime example.
The community eagerly anticipated BERA’s launch and mainnet completion, but the project faced accusations of insider trading and experienced a price collapse after its exchange listing.
Perhaps Linea’s connection to ConsenSys offers some hope for a well-managed airdrop, as a failure could lead to a loss of trust in the company.
It is also important to consider strong competitors like Arbitrum and Base. Linea will need significant effort to break into the top 5 L2 protocols and maintain its position.
Chain data indicates a solid foundation for Linea’s token launch, which could add value to the project. However, overall, L2 statistics present a grim picture. While these protocols are technically and conceptually crucial for DeFi, the market may need time to recognize their significance.
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