John Lilic, CEO of Telos, on Quantum Money and Quantum Computing’s Threat (and Opportunity) to Crypto | Ep. 432

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April 22, 2025

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John Lilic, CEO of Telos and a key figure in Ethereum’s early development, joined the Cryptonews Spotlight Podcast to sound the alarm on the fast-approaching quantum computing threat to blockchain security.

In a wide-ranging conversation, he outlined why ECC (elliptic curve cryptography) is doomed, how Q-Day will blindside the industry, and why the real future of digital money may not be on blockchains at all.

Quantum Moved Faster Than Anyone Expected

“Quantum had always been something in the back of my mind as this very far-off technology… but I came to realize it’s actually tremendously advanced.”

Lilic described how years of working in Ethereum lulled him into underestimating quantum’s pace – until he began speaking with physicists and studying projects like PsiQuantum.

Bitcoin Isn’t the Main Target – But It’ll Be the First to Fall

“The incentives to realize a quantum computer that can break elliptic curve cryptography are vastly bigger than Bitcoin… the incentives are working against Bitcoin.”

The arms race to crack cryptography is driven by military, economic, and scientific goals – Bitcoin is just collateral damage, Lilic says.

The Update Problem: Blockchains Can’t Patch Overnight

“With banks or centralized institutions, all they have to do is upgrade their SSL certificates… With decentralized networks, you need 100% of users to coordinate.”

Blockchains face a unique coordination nightmare when trying to implement cryptographic upgrades—especially with legacy wallets and inactive users.

Quantum Attacks Will Look Innocent at First

“When a quantum attack happens, all you’ll see is old Bitcoin moving. It won’t come with sirens or red flashing lights.”

Unlike traditional hacks, quantum attacks won’t leave traces – they’ll resemble long-dormant wallets coming back to life.

Legalized Quantum Theft Could Be a Business Model

“A guy who lost his hard drive with 8,000 BTC could legally approach a quantum startup and say: recover my Bitcoin and I’ll give you 60%.”

Even without malicious actors, “legal gray zone” asset recovery deals could sweep up vulnerable wallets post-Q-Day.

Breaking Bitcoin Could Be a Nation-State Strategy

“If China wanted to damage trust in the U.S. economy, it could target Satoshi’s coins… Breaking Bitcoin would shake the entire blockchain ecosystem.”

Lilic warns that strategic attacks on high-profile wallets could erode confidence in decentralized systems without launching a single missile.

The Timeline Is Tighter Than People Think

“I’ve stopped doing deals where I receive tokens anytime after mid-2027 or 2028.”

Based on his research, Lilic estimates mass-useful quantum computing could arrive by 2028 – potentially earlier.

Q-Day May Arrive in Stages

“Q-Day might be a 32-bit demo. Not a full break – but enough to make the market realize how unprepared we are.”

The first quantum attack may not be devastating – but even a minor proof-of-concept could trigger panic and capital flight.

Stablecoins Will Be First to Flee

“The first exit will happen with stablecoins. Institutional issuers will realize they’re taking an unknown black swan risk for 1–2% yield.”

As soon as quantum risk becomes credible, major stablecoin issuers like Circle and Tether may pull back or move off-chain.

Most Post-Quantum Claims Are Marketing

“There are about 35 quantum crypto projects out there. Most of them are fugazi.”

Lilic says the majority of projects claiming to be “quantum-safe” today are more marketing than math, with no deployed PQC stack.

Even NIST-Approved Solutions Aren’t Enough

“Even with NIST standards approved, implementing across chains could take years.”

Transitioning Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana to post-quantum algorithms is an engineering and governance challenge, not just a cryptographic one.

Forking Won’t Save Us

“Some believe we’ll just bridge assets into post-quantum chains… but even that introduces risk.”

Bridging away from L1s adds complexity and custody tradeoffs, making it a temporary workaround, not a long-term solution.

The Future May Not Be Blockchain at All

“Digital assets secured by quantum physics, not blockchains. Assets that don’t need a ledger and can’t be cloned.”

Lilic sees the possibility of quantum-native money – bearer assets governed by quantum mechanics, not consensus algorithms.

Quantum-Native Tether Could Be the Endgame

“Future Tether could be printing quantum money – USD assets you can trade peer-to-peer, without needing blockchain at all.”

Quantum-secured currencies may offer instant settlement, physical non-clonability, and no blockchain dependence – making them superior in many use cases.

John Lilic is urging the crypto industry to start listening to physicists, not just developers. Whether Q-Day hits in 2027 or 2032, the window for preparation is closing – and the next era of money might be written in qubits, not code.