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Richard Levin

Author

Richard Levin

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Last updated:

November 10, 2024

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Friday, November 8, 2024, Bitcoin price: $77,000.

This is a follow up to my February 2024 article The Case for Investing in a Bitcoin ETF and Why It’s Time To Get Off Zero.

In February of this year I wrote an opinion on why investing in Bitcoin right after the Exchange Traded Funds were approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission was a good idea. Essentially I made the case that the big boys (Blackrock, Fidelity, BNY Mellon, etc.) were coming, the stage was set for fireworks and you shouldn’t be sitting on the sidelines. The price of Bitcoin when I wrote it, $44,000. Safe to say things are tracking as expected. Much has happened in the nine months since I wrote it. Let’s dig into what’s happened, where we are now, and where I think we’re going.

Lift Off

The SEC approved the Bitcoin ETFs on January 10th of this year. The clear leader of the pack has been Blackrock by far, they bought over $1,000,000,000 worth of Bitcoin yesterday alone, yes that’s billion with a B. Between the 12 approved ETFs they have bought a combined 1,025,420 Bitcoin since approval. Who’s buying all this Bitcoin through these funds? Early on it was retail buyers who now had access to the digital asset class through their brokers, however as we started to get a look at S-13 filings (SEC quarterly reporting for institutional managers who manage at least $100 million in assets) throughout the year, a more clear picture emerged. The institutions have truly arrived, we’ve seen buys from Morgan Stanley, Jersey City, The State of Wisconsin Pension Fund, Emory University, and the list goes on and on. Only 450 new Bitcoin are mined every day, the ETFs are buying an average of 3,700 a day. There are no signs of stopping the ETF machine, they are sucking the exchanges and OTC desks dry of Bitcoin, the real supply squeeze is upon us.

The Election
Both Harris and Trump were a net positive for Bitcoin compared to the Biden administration, however there is no question that Trump embraced the space with much more enthusiasm than Harris. The pro-crypto Fairshake PAC raised over $200M and openly backed 56 candidates across BOTH PARTIES in Tuesday’s election, of the 48 that have called races thus far, 48 have won. A 100% win rate makes them one of the most winning lobby groups in the country and reiterates the fact that 1 in 5 Americans own or have exposure to crypto, and they have a voice. 266 pro-crypto members of Congress just got elected to the House, along with 18 pro-crypto Senators, again both democrats and republicans. Trump has vowed to “make America the crypto capital of the world” and create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with the help of Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming, the goal is for The United States of America to buy 1,000,000 Bitcoin. The bill is already written, read it here. When this happens it will force every other developed nation-state to do the same, some have already started. Gold reserves were fine back in the day, but the most desired new reserve asset is Bitcoin.

What Happens Next?

Here is how I think this all plays out. Trump will fire Gary Gensler, Chairman of the SEC. Gary has been the lieutenant of Elizabeth Warren’s Anti-crypto Army. That Army is dead in the water now. With more favorable regulation new companies in Bitcoin don’t have to flee to other countries like the UAE, Switzerland, Israel and Singapore, all of which have put forth clear and fair regulation for the industry. Now major tech companies can acquire smaller crypto companies and fold them into the fabric of the US tech world. Banks will get approval to custody your Bitcoin, you will see Checking, Savings, Bitcoin on your Bank of America homepage. Bullish.

Wall Street has already been bidding Bitcoin hard the last month, pricing in a Trump win, hence our current $77,000 price. I see no stopping, in fact Blackrock’s buying yesterday was the largest they’ve ever made. Institutions are pouring in and now that there will be clear regulatory guidelines, they’ll go harder than before. More public companies, pension funds, hedge funds, colleges, states, and cities will buy. Bullish.

Supply will absolutely get squeezed like we’ve never seen, demand will go through the roof. Exchanges and OTC brokers will run out of Bitcoin to sell to institutions and perhaps the United States or any of the other sovereign nations that want to hold the new reserve asset of choice. Bullish.

Soon Bitcoin will likely trade between $100,000 – $200,000. It’s hard to know just where the ceiling is on an asset class this large that’s in price discovery with nothing but open air above it in the chart. Timing this will be hard, like always. Don’t day trade it, think like a long term investor. Buy and sit on your hands, the hardest thing to do in Bitcoin is to do nothing. Will there be massive dips? Yep. Will the macro affect it? Yep. Will there be insane upside and the potential to make life-changing money? Yep. Will you miss it or fuck it up? Probably. But I wish you the best of luck.

~ Richard Levin is Vice President of Cryptonews.com

*If you have questions, I’d love to answer them, DM on Instagram @newyorkorparis. None of this is financial advice, if anyone tells you they know anything about Bitcoin price action, they’re scamming you. I am a mere mortal, I win and lose like everyone else. This is just my opinion based on years of working in this field and thousands of hours studying the tech.*