Trump’s Lead over Harris on Polymarket Widens, Reaching Early August Levels

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Ruholamin Haqshanas

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Ruholamin Haqshanas

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Ruholamin Haqshanas is a contributing crypto writer for CryptoNews. He is a crypto and finance journalist with over four years of experience. Ruholamin has been featured in several high-profile crypto...

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September 4, 2024

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Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris on Polymarket, a popular betting platform for political events, has widened significantly as the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer.

After a period of near parity in mid-August, Trump’s odds have surged ahead.

As of now, 53% of bettors on Polymarket favor Trump, while 47% are backing Harris, reaching levels seen in early August.

Trump Makes A Comeback

The recent shift marks a notable comeback for Trump, who experienced a dip in support after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election.

Biden’s decision briefly boosted Harris’s chances, but Trump’s current surge has brought him back to early August levels.

However, his current odds still fall short of the 72% peak he reached following the Bitcoin 2024 conference in late July.

Trump’s growing support among crypto investors is considered a key factor in his resurgence.

His pro-crypto stance, including promises to back the Bitcoin sector and blockchain initiatives, has resonated with this demographic.

On August 27, Trump announced his fourth NFT collection, “Series 4: The America First Collection,” offered via Bitcoin Ordinals.

He followed up by stating that he aims to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” if re-elected.

In contrast, Harris has struggled to maintain momentum on Polymarket, particularly after the Democratic National Convention, where cryptocurrency was notably absent from the agenda.

As reported, betting odds on Polymarket started shifting in favor of Trump in the wake of signals from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign that he may be preparing to withdraw and endorse Trump.

Bloomberg to Integrate Polymarket Election Odds into Terminal

Last week, leading financial data and news service provider Bloomberg LP revealed that it aims to incorporate election odds data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket into its widely used Terminal.

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market operating on the Polygon network, has become a prominent platform for tracking real-time election odds.

The platform allows users to bet on a wide range of event outcomes, leveraging transparent on-chain data and smart contracts for trade execution and payouts.

According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket’s trading volume for August approached $450 million, with nearly $760 million bet on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election as of late August.

Last month, five United States Senators and three House representatives called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The bipartisan group consists of prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.

The group expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires leveraging large wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public trust in the democratic process.