Ted Talks Macro Shares Bitcoin Price Prediction for FOMC Day – Buy the Dip?

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October 23, 2023 08:47 EDT

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Crypto analyst Ted Talks Macro (@tedtalksmacro) posted a tweet thread with a FOMC Bitcoin price prediction – that BTC could potentially rally post FOMC.

The results of the next FOMC meeting (Federal Open Market Committee) will be announced Wednesday, September 21.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – @tedtalksmacro 

1/ 75bps or 100bps in September?

The US Federal Reserve will deliver their decision on monetary policy in the US this week and that will impact #Bitcoin + crypto.

Here's what the market is expecting: pic.twitter.com/1DvU4pEifx

— ted (@tedtalksmacro) September 17, 2022

Ted Talks Macro’s thesis is that the stock and crypto markets have mostly priced in a 75bps rate hike, and ‘discounted the likelihood of a 100bps hike’. 

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a 100bps hike has just an 18% probability of occurring. 

Therefore, assets seen as more ‘risk-on’ such as Bitcoin should see a bounce and relief rally if a 75 basis points hike is announced.

Since his Bitcoin price prediction on September 17, the BTC price has dropped as low as $18,230 on Binance – down 7.5% in the past 24 hours as of Monday 19. 

Bitcoin typically acts as a beta asset to the S&P 500, which is 0.7% in the red today. 

The larger Bitcoin dump pre FOMC as sentiment turns risk-off could in turn leave more upside for a bullish rally post FOMC.

Ted Talks Macro expects a short-term uptrend for the Bitcoin price after the FOMC meeting, although followed by a ‘hawkish press-conference at 18:30 UTC that caps the rally.’

Ted Talks Macro has just under 79,000 followers on Twitter, and 10,000 on YouTube. Read his Bitcoin price prediction thread here.

Bitcoin has historically generated bad returns in September, followed by a recovery in the following months.

Elsewhere in the altcoin markets, token presales are still attracting high investor interest and selling out early, despite the caution and bearish price action in the big caps.

Update – TradingTank also posted a FOMC crypto price prediction thread with a similar outlook.

We also reviewed some Bitcoin price predictions post FOMC, after BTC crashed to new September lows.