Polymarket Surpasses $100M Monthly Trading Volume as Predictions Heat Up for US Election
Decentralized predictions platform Polymarket surpassed $100 million in monthly trading volume in June as anticipation builds around the outcome of the United States presidential election.
The “Presidential Election Winner 2024“ market alone currently holds a staggering $203.3 million worth of bets across 17 individual prediction markets.
At present, the favorite to win the election is former President Donald Trump, with a 62% chance, and a total of $24.7 million in bets for and against his victory.
Following closely behind is the current President, Joe Biden, with $23.9 million in bets on his potential second term.
However, Biden’s odds have dropped from 34% to 21% following his lackluster performance in the recent Presidential Debate on June 28.
New Election-Related Bets Emerge
Interestingly, the debate performance led to a surge in bets on markets such as “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4,” which currently stand at 43% and 9% respectively, with over $10 million in bets placed on these markets.
Additionally, there are also millions of dollars in bets related to whether figures like American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren could win the presidency, although these markets currently show less than a 1% chance of success.
Polymarket, which operates on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, achieved a remarkable trading volume of $109.9 million in June, its first time crossing the $100 million mark, according to data from a Dune Analytics dashboard.
This marks a significant increase from the trading volumes observed between January and May, which ranged from $38.9 million to $63 million, representing a staggering 620% growth compared to the preceding five months (August-December 2023).
Furthermore, the number of monthly active traders skyrocketed by 115% to reach 29,266 in June.
Polymarket has also experienced a surge in total value locked, reaching $40.2 million, a nearly 69% increase over the past 30 days, as reported by Token Terminal data.
Polymarket Sees Increased Trading Volumes in UEFA Bets
The platform has witnessed substantial trading volumes not only in cryptocurrency prices but also in markets related to the UEFA European Football Championship 2024.
Launched in June 2020, Polymarket recently secured $70 million in funding and boasts the support of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund.
“Prediction markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy,” Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, wrote in a recent post on X.
“They take free markets and free speech as inputs and output truth. In an age when centralized control of information is a systemic risk, prediction markets offer a way of cutting through misleading narratives and viewing the unvarnished truth.”
.@Polymarket's astronomical success is the most important story in crypto right now, but it's so obvious that we are ignoring it, when we should be screaming it from the rooftops.
Prediction markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy. They take free… pic.twitter.com/XlubHYDicq
— yuga.eth 🛡 (@yugacohler) June 30, 2024
As reported, a survey conducted by the Harris Poll has revealed that one in three voters in the US consider a candidate’s position on cryptocurrencies before making their voting decision.
Another survey conducted by leading crypto venture capital firm Paradigm reveals that Trump’s poll numbers for the 2024 US Presidential Election enjoy significant support from the crypto community.
The survey, which included 1,000 registered voters, found that 48% of crypto owners plan to vote for the former president, while 39% intend to vote for current U.S. President Joe Biden.
