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Is Bitcoin (BTC) Set to Surge Above $40,000? This Indicator Suggests Whales Are Waking Up

Joel Frank
Last updated: | 2 min read
Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin Logo / Source: Adobe

The Bitcoin (BTC) bulls remain in control on Monday as the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization consolidates to the north of the $34,500 level in wake of last week’s more than 15% surge.

BTC/USD Chart / Source: TradingView
BTC/USD Chart / Source: TradingView

Optimism about expected upcoming spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals in the US, as well as a growing safe haven narrative as Bitcoin outperforms the falling stock and bond market are keeping the BTC price supported heading into a week jam-packed with a number of crucial US economic events.

The Fed will be announcing its latest decision on monetary policy on Wednesday, while the key monthly US jobs report and ISM PMI survey data are also slated for release.

Strong US economic data as of late as well as hawkish communications from the US Federal Reserve, who seemingly plan to keep interest rates high for a long time, have kept stocks on the defensive in October, making Bitcoin’s recent outperformance striking given its strong correlation to stocks as recently as 2022.

Bulls continue to forecast a near-term move above $40,000 for BTC, with Matrixport recently calling for a move to at least as high as $42,000 on the official news that spot Bitcoin ETFs have secured approval in the US.

This Indicator Suggests Whales Are Waking Up


On-chain data supports the notion that excitement is building up in the Bitcoin market.

The number of large transactions of over $100,000 in value on the Bitcoin blockchain surged to its highest level of 2023 last week, according to data presented by crypto analytics firm IntoTheBlock.

“The Bitcoin spot ETF applications appear to have increased whales’ and institutions appetite for Bitcoin,” IntoTheBlock noted in a blog post to Medium, adding that “the recent rise in institutional activity might be a harbinger for what comes in 2024”.

Bitcoin Large Transactions
Bitcoin Large Transactions

The surge in large transactions unsurprisingly comes at a time when the dollar value of total transfer volumes on the Bitcoin blockchain has also been rising.

A seven-day exponential moving average of this metric recently hit a near-one-year high above $32.5 billion last week, as per data presented by Glassnode.

Bitcoin Total Transfer Volumes
Bitcoin Total Transfer Volumes

The number of Bitcoin transactions has seen wild swing in recent months, with the seven-day exponential moving average hitting a new all-time high near 600,000 per day last month before pulling back aggressively and then rebounding in recent weeks.

Big swings in this on-chain metric like we have been seeing recently are typical during Bitcoin bull markets, which many analysts now agree we are in.

Spot Bitcoin ETF application approvals aren’t the only bullish narrative being touted as likely to boost the BTC price in 2024.

Analysts are also pointing to the halving of the Bitcoin issuance rate (a historically bullish event), the start of a new Fed interest rate cutting cycle (meaning potential macro headwinds) and the possibility of greater clarity from regulators and Congress in the US as having the potential to boost the BTC price.