Bitcoin Price Choppy as Soft US Jobs Data Feeds Fed Rate Cut Bets – Where Is BTC Headed Next?

The Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced volatility on Friday following soft US jobs data, which reinforced market expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year.

Following the jobs data, Bitcoin reached a high of $71,500 before falling back to $69,000. At the time of writing, BTC hovers around $70,000.

Data on Friday showed the US economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, significantly below the expected 106,000.

August and September job numbers were also revised downward, subtracting 112,000 jobs from previous reports.

BREAKING: The Labor Department has revised the last TWO jobs reports LOWER by a combined 112,000 jobs.

Initially reported numbers showed that the US added 254,000 jobs in September which was just revised down by 31,000, to 223,000.

At the same time, the August jobs report was… pic.twitter.com/t4x6xge44G

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 1, 2024

While the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, the latest figures depict a softening labor market.

The Fed may discount these numbers, as recent hurricane impacts on the data remain unclear, but it is expected to continue with its guidance for two more rate cuts this year.

As expected, the latest US jobs report provides limited clarity on the broader economic outlook and policy implications.
Among the key indicators — listed in the CNBC table, and also including labor force participation — only the unemployment rate offers relatively less ambiguous… pic.twitter.com/Wx5pkQN6IP

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 1, 2024

Where is the Bitcoin Price Headed Next?

The latest US jobs numbers indicate a medium- to long-term supportive backdrop for the Bitcoin price.

While the US labor market shows signs of softening, it may not be as severe as recent figures suggest.

Combined with robust reports this week on GDP and personal spending, these signs point to a resilient US economy even as the Fed lowers short-term interest rates.

This environment is seen as favorable for risk assets like stocks and crypto, which are expected to perform well.

Currently, the US Presidential election draws more attention than economic factors. With the election next week, uncertainty around the outcome has added to market volatility.

Ex-President Trump’s odds have been slipping in the betting markets, potentially as traders hedge their bets, and potentially to reflect recent gaffes (like a comedian insulting Puerto Rico at a recent Trump rally).

Trump's odds are down 5.6% today.

🟥 Trump • 60.9% chance
🟦 Harris • 39.1% chance

4 days to go. pic.twitter.com/FFzTdYgkTq

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 31, 2024

Trump is perceived as more pro-crypto, so decreasing confidence in his chances may be prompting profit-taking, affecting the Bitcoin price on Friday.

Ahead of the election, traders should expect further price swings.

A Trump victory could act as an immediate catalyst for BTC price upside, while a Kamala Harris win may lead those betting on Trump to sell, potentially triggering a short-term price dip.

However, a potential Harris administration is expected to take a more neutral stance on crypto than the Biden administration did.

Any rebound in BTC price may be temporary. As delayed effects from this year’s Bitcoin halving take hold, analysts suggest a strong end to 2024, with the potential for Bitcoin to reach $100,000.

Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.