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Cardano Price Forecast as On-Chain Data Shows Huge Whale Activity – What Do They Know?

ADA Cardano

DeFi

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Joel Frank

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Joel Frank

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Since graduating with a degree in economics from the University of Birmingham in 2018, Joel has worked as a financial market/cryptocurrency analyst. He firmly believes that emerging crypto technology...

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Last updated:

October 22, 2023

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Cardano (ADA), the cryptocurrency that powers the smart-contract-enabled Cardano blockchain, was last changing hands around $0.34 per token, up around 4% on the day amid a broader rally in cryptocurrencies, but lifted somewhat by positive news about the Cardano development team delivering a new network upgrade.

Dynamic #P2P networking is an important evolution for #Cardano and a further boost to the network's performance, resilience and decentralization. And it's rolling out from today…

Read more: https://t.co/Mxz0F9qCqS pic.twitter.com/gQF5LhhTan

— Input Output (@InputOutputHK) March 16, 2023

That means ADA/USD is up around 14% versus its recent sub-$0.30 lows printed at the end of last week amid peak crypto market fears about the impact of a possible US financial crisis. But ADA is still down around 7.5% versus its recent highs near $0.37 after rejecting a test of its 200-Day Moving Average.

While that’s not a good technical sign, on-chain data is more optimistic, particularly as it reveals an uptick in the number of “whales” transacting on the Cardano blockchain. Specifically, according to a chart shared by @ali_charts, the number of ADA transactions that exceed $100,000 on the Cardano network is on the rise.

The volume of large #ADA transactions exceeding $100,000 on the #Cardano network is on the rise!

This trend indicates institutional investors' and $ADA whales' increasing engagement, shedding light on their investment strategies. pic.twitter.com/XiTbfX06Kx

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 16, 2023

According to @ali_charts, “this trend indicates institutional investors’ and ADA whales’ increasing engagement, shedding light on their investment strategies”.

What Do the Whales Know?

Increased whale activity on the Cardano blockchain could be connected to improving trends within Cardano’s Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ecosystem. Widely followed Cardano influencer @cardano_whale recent shared positive statistics relating to growth in Cardano’s TVL.

YTD, Cardano TVL grew 20% per month to 358m ADA. If this trend continues, it hits 1bn ADA in a year, which is $3bn if ADA goes back to all-time high. This doesn’t factor in yet to launch @axotrade, @GeniusyieldO, @TeddySwap, @yamfore, @SpectrumLabs_, new @liqwidfinance assets etc

— ADA whale (@cardano_whale) March 16, 2023

According to “ADA Whale”, Trade Value Locked (TVL) – i.e. the USD-denominated value of crypto locked in smart contracts on the Cardano blockchain – is rising 20% per month. If that rate continues and ADA recovers back to all-time price highs by the end of the year, Cardano could have a TVL of roughly $3 billion.

“This doesn’t factor in yet to launch @axotrade, @GeniusyieldO, @TeddySwap, @yamfore, @SpectrumLabs_, new @liqwidfinance assets,” the pseudonymous Twitter account noted. Cardano “is going to be a top 5 DeFi ecosystem next bull run with a massive community behind it,” they stated.

Price Prediction – Where Next for ADA?

Support-turned-resistance in the $0.35 area, which also coincides roughly with the 200-Day Moving Average may continue to cap ADA upside in the near future, with the cryptocurrency still seemingly in a downtrend from its February highs in the $0.42 area. But as buying pressure builds up in the broader cryptocurrency market and the likes of Bitcoin and Ether hit new multi-month highs, it seems like only a matter of time until ADA starts also pushing substantially higher.

A break above the aforementioned resistance area around $0.35 and the 200DMA would open the door to a retest of a downtrend linking highs going all the way back to last June. A break above here and the annual highs would then open the door to the potential upside towards last summer’s highs in the $0.60 area, more than 70% up from current levels.