Bitcoin Price Is Heading for Another Red October, but Galaxy Says the Worst Is Over

Bitcoin price is heading toward a second consecutive losing October, but Galaxy Research believes the market may have already turned a corner. BTC is trading just a nod above $80,000, down by more than 4% month-to-date, as investors weigh persistent selling pressure against improving long-term signals.

The bullish case gained fresh support from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26. This return to positive flows ended a two-day outflow streak, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for nearly all the gains.

However, the recovery remains fragile. U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded $88 million to $90 million in outflows over the same session, showing that institutional demand remains far from universally bullish.

Discover: The Crypto Presales This Q4 2026

Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over

Galaxy Research declared the Bitcoin bear market over in an October 26 assessment, arguing that BTC has entered an accumulation phase following a potential bottom near $76,500 on June 30.

The firm points to Bitcoin’s recovery above key long-term moving averages, including the 50-week moving average. BTC has recorded multiple weekly closes above that level, which Galaxy views as evidence that the market’s underlying structure has improved.

Bitcoin was trading around $80,000 when the assessment emerged, leaving it 5% above the 50-week moving average near $76,000.

Galaxy also argues that several sources of selling pressure have eased. Long-term holders have reduced their distribution, while macro traders and basis-focused funds have cut their exposure. Asset managers’ net-long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have also declined substantially from previous highs.

That matters because a market can stabilize when leveraged or speculative sellers exit, even before a powerful new wave of buyers appears.

Galaxy’s bullish thesis is not unconditional. A sustained weekly close below the 50-week moving average, without a quick recovery, would undermine its assessment and raise the risk of another leg lower.

Can Bitcoin Price Escape Another Red October?

Bitcoin’s immediate test is the $75,800–$76,500 region around its 50-week moving average while attracting sustained spot demand.

If the ETF recovery continues and selling pressure remains subdued, BTC could build a stronger base for another advance. Galaxy’s analysis suggests the market may be accumulating rather than entering a fresh bearish phase.

But if ETF inflows fade and Bitcoin loses its long-term moving-average support, the bullish price thesis will face a serious challenge.

For now, Bitcoin presents a market caught between two competing signals: a second consecutive red October and a growing argument that the worst of the bear market may already be behind it.

Discover: The Best Token Presales