Joe Burnett, Director of Market Research at Unchained, on Bitcoin Treasury Companies, Storing Bitcoin, and Financial Services for Bitcoin Holders | Ep. 437

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May 8, 2025

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Joe Burnett, Director of Market Research at Unchained, joined the Cryptonews Spotlight Podcast for a comprehensive look at Bitcoin’s role in treasury strategy, secure custody, and long-term valuation.

Burnett, a respected voice in Bitcoin research, explained why Michael Saylor’s billion-dollar buys aren’t moving markets, how mNAV can signal bull market peaks, and why $10M BTC is possible, given enough time.

Why Saylor’s Buys Don’t Move the Market

“You’re creating a Bitcoin IOU via new shares of MicroStrategy and then buying Bitcoin… It’s kind of a net-neutral trade.”

Burnett explained that when MicroStrategy issues equity to buy BTC, it’s functionally similar to selling synthetic Bitcoin, muting the price impact.

Bitcoin’s Bull Market Started at $16K

“Three years ago, Bitcoin was $16,000 per coin. Today, it’s $96,000. That’s a material movement.”

For investors wondering why BTC isn’t “mooning”, Burnett reminded listeners that Bitcoin has already 6X’d since its 2022 lows.

Understanding mNAV for Bitcoin Stocks

“When the mNAV hits one or lower, that’s usually the top.”

Burnett uses market Net Asset Value (mNAV) – a premium/discount indicator for Bitcoin treasury companies – to signal market tops and bottoms.

The Incentive for Saylor to Keep Buying

“When mNAV is positive, Saylor has the incentive to issue new shares of MicroStrategy and buy Bitcoin.”

As long as MicroStrategy trades at a premium to its BTC holdings, it can effectively mint BTC-per-share value for its shareholders.

Why More Companies Aren’t Buying Bitcoin

“If you’re a zombie company… Bitcoin makes perfect sense. But the MAG7 doesn’t need it yet.”

Smaller firms can benefit from attention and treasury upside. But big tech, already profitable, doesn’t yet feel the urgency.

Bitcoin’s Marketing Value

“You spend a couple of million on Bitcoin, and get way more than that in free press.”

Burnett called out the branding arbitrage for public companies like KULR that recently bought 668 BTC and hit headlines overnight.

Why $10M Bitcoin Isn’t So Far-Fetched

“Bitcoin is more scarce and portable than gold… If it’s 10X better, it could reach $10 million per coin.”

Burnett compared BTC to other tech leaps – Tesla vs. horse-drawn carriages, or Apple vs. landlines – to justify a 10X over gold parity.

Bitcoin vs Unit Bias

“People look at a coin that’s less than a penny and think it can easily 10X… but Bitcoin is divisible into 100 million sats.”

He urged normie investors to ignore unit bias: Bitcoin can be bought fractionally, and market cap, not price per coin, matters.

The Role of ETFs in Normie Adoption

“They don’t even need to buy Bitcoin. They’ll just buy IBIT or a treasury company like MicroStrategy.”

For many, buying Bitcoin proxies via equities or ETFs will be easier and more familiar than self-custody.

Why Collaborative Custody Matters

“Unchained’s vault uses 2-of-3 multisig… The client holds two keys, and Unchained holds one.”

He explained Unchained’s approach to eliminating single points of failure, giving users control while offering support.

Secure, Direct Onboarding

“You can buy Bitcoin from Unchained and it goes straight to cold storage. Or sell directly from cold storage.”

Burnett highlighted Unchained’s seamless buy/sell tools, avoiding risky exchange transfers entirely.

When Should You Ditch the Exchange?

“Once you hit five figures, maybe even high four figures, it’s time to get your Bitcoin off exchanges.”

He advises new investors to start learning self-custody early, especially as your holdings grow.

How to Understand Bitcoin’s Power

“Once you realize your seed phrase can move millions of dollars from any device… it clicks.”

Burnett called Bitcoin a “bearer instrument for the digital age”, and said the tech only makes sense once you experience it firsthand.

The Next Parabolic Moment

“This could play out over 12 months – or five years. But Bitcoin should reach gold parity. It’s just a matter of time.”

Burnett sees $1M BTC as inevitable, and predicts the next huge run-up may mirror 2021’s surge from $30K to $69K.

Has Bitcoin Decoupled from TradFi?

“Bitcoin can trade like NASDAQ when it’s ripping – or like gold when it’s rallying. That’s bullish.”

He said Bitcoin is slowly breaking free from risk asset status, acting as both a tech stock and safe haven depending on macro conditions.