Is Bitcoin Entering a Bearish Phase? Key Price Metric Flashes a Major Warning

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Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

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Arslan Butt is an experienced webinar speaker, market analyst, and content writer specializing in crypto, forex, and commodities. He provides expert insights, trading strategies, and in-depth analysis...

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February 17, 2025 21:24 EST

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Bitcoin is currently trading at $96,300, slipping 0.29% in the past 24 hours as traders remain cautious. A new warning signal has emerged, with CryptoQuant’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric flashing red—a pattern often preceding bearish shifts.

This metric tracks Bitcoin movements between derivatives and spot exchanges, and recent data suggests that large investors (whales) may be unwinding their leveraged positions.

Historically, when Bitcoin flows into derivatives exchanges, it signals increased risk appetite, leading to bullish trends. Conversely, when BTC migrates from derivatives to spot exchanges, it suggests that major players are securing profits or reducing exposure.

With Bitcoin struggling below $96,500, the market could be bracing for further downside, unless fresh bullish catalysts emerge.

Bitcoin’s IFP Trend Mirrors Previous Market Cycles

Past trends indicate that shifts in the IFP metric often coincide with major turning points in Bitcoin’s price. For instance, a similar movement occurred in March 2021, just before Bitcoin hit $58,000, leading to a consolidation phase.

More recently, when BTC peaked at $109,000, the IFP metric didn’t spike as it had in previous cycles, hinting that this rally lacked the same level of institutional confidence.

Despite these signals, the market’s long-term bullish narrative remains intact. Institutional interest, such as the National Bank of Canada’s $2 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs, continues to support the crypto sector.

Additionally, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields holding below 4.5% provide a stable macroeconomic backdrop, reducing fears of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart, indicating indecision among traders. These patterns typically precede a breakout, but the direction remains uncertain.

• Immediate resistance: $97,000, followed by $98,000 and $99,000. A move above these levels could push BTC toward the critical $100,000 psychological barrier.
• Support levels: $95,300, with deeper targets at $94,100 and $92,700. A breakdown below these zones may intensify selling pressure.
• 50-day EMA: $96,700, currently acting as dynamic resistance, capping upside momentum.

With Bitcoin consolidating within a tight range, volatility is expected. If bulls reclaim $97,000, a breakout rally could materialize. However, failure to hold above $95,300 may lead to a deeper retracement.

Key Insights:

• Whale activity signals potential downside risk, with BTC struggling below $96,500.
• Symmetrical triangle pattern suggests an imminent breakout—direction remains uncertain.
• A break above $97,000 could spark a rally, while failure may push BTC to $94,100.

The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin’s latest consolidation phase leads to a renewed uptrend or a bearish correction.

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