Bitcoin Price Prediction: Ancient Wallets Hoard More BTC Than Miners Can Replace – Supply Shock Coming?

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Arslan Butt

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

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Arslan Butt is an experienced webinar speaker, market analyst, and content writer specializing in crypto, forex, and commodities. He provides expert insights, trading strategies, and in-depth analysis...

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Last updated: 

June 19, 2025

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Bitcoin supply dynamics are tightening in a way we’ve never seen before. According to Fidelity Digital Assets, 550 BTC per day are now being classified as “ancient,” meaning coins untouched for over 10 years, surpassing the daily mining rate of 450 BTC.

This marks a historic inversion in Bitcoin’s supply mechanics. Over 17% of the total BTC supply is now illiquid, and that figure could surge to 30% by 2026.

• Ancient BTC holders rarely sell: net outflows occurred less than 3% of the time.
• After the 2024 election, even long-term wallets showed brief activity.
• Illiquid supply growth signals firm conviction despite price volatility.

This imbalance between shrinking liquid supply and ongoing demand is laying the groundwork for what analysts call a structural supply shock.

Institutions Gear Up to Absorb Millions of Bitcoins

The demand side of the equation is equally compelling. Asset manager Bitwise estimates that inflows into Bitcoin will reach $120 billion by 2025, growing to $300 billion in a base case and $426 billion in a bullish scenario. That could absorb over 4 million BTC, nearly 19% of the total capped supply.

What’s fueling this?

• Public companies and pension funds are slowly increasing their BTC exposure
• US states and cities are exploring treasury allocations
• Advisors on major platforms now offer 1–3% BTC model portfolios

Despite $35 billion in sidelined interest due to compliance hesitations at firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the institutional tide is shifting.

With these players collectively managing over $60 trillion, even small allocations have significant implications.

Technical Outlook: Bitcoin Coils Near Critical Trendline

On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin is consolidating at $104,600. Price action is tightening along a rising trendline from the June 5 low.

The 50-period EMA is sloping down at $105,381 and has been rejecting upside moves. The MACD lines are flat below zero, indicating a potential breakout.

Levels to Watch:

• Support: $104,000 and $103,431
• Resistance: $105,600-$105,800; above opens up $106,658 and $107,748

Bitcoin Trade Idea

Longs look to confirm a breakout above $105,600 to $106,658 and $107,748 with a stop under $104,000—shorts below $103,400 to $102,200 and $100,449.

Institutional flows are rising, and old supply is locking up BTC. Now, it’s time to see if price follows fundamentals or if volatility will shake out before the next leg up.

BTC Bull Token Nears $8.2M Cap as 58% APY Staking Attracts Last-Minute Buyers

With BTC trading near $105K, investor focus is shifting toward altcoins, especially BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL). The project has now raised $7,249,360 out of its $8,290,897 cap, leaving less than $1 million before the next token price hike. The current price of $0.00257 is expected to increase once the cap is hit.

BTC Bull Token links its value directly to Bitcoin through two core mechanisms:

• BTC Airdrops reward holders, with presale participants receiving priority.
• Supply Burns occur automatically every time BTC increases by $50,000, reducing $BTCBULL’s circulating supply.

The token also features a 58% APY staking pool holding over 1.81 billion tokens, offering:

• No lockups or fees
• Full liquidity
• Stable passive yields, even in volatile markets

This staking model appeals to both DeFi veterans and newcomers seeking hands-off income.

With just hours left and the hard cap nearly reached, momentum is building fast. BTCBULL’s blend of Bitcoin-linked value, scarcity mechanics, and flexible staking is fueling strong demand. Early buyers have a limited time to enter before the next pricing tier activates.