Is Bitcoin Bottom In? Check These 20 Estimations & a New Bullish Sign
Crypto researcher and analyst Willy Woo asked around in the crypto community what they think about the probability that the bottom is already in for this bear market. Taking all the answers he has into account, it seems that they believe there’s an average chance of 71.2% this is true. Meanwhile, a long-awaited golden cross appeared in Bitcoin charts, indicating the bull market.
A total of 20 people responded to Woo’s survey, out of which two had notable comments picked out by Woo: one is trading veteran Peter Brandt, who said, “50% chance BTC goes to USD 50k. 25% chance we establish a very prolonged broad trading range for several years. 25% chance we go to basically zero,” and the other was Jesse Powell, co-founder and CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, who said everything can go to zero at any time.
The others make up an interesting list that is more or less bullish in nature:
- Willy Woo himself: 95%
- Alistair Milne, co-founder and CIO of Altana Digital Currency Fund: 91%
- Jesse Powell, co-founder and CEO of Kraken: 90%
- Arjun Balaji, cryptocurrency analyst: 90%
- WhalePanda (Twitter handle: WhalePanda), angel investor, crypto influencer: 90%
- Michael Novogratz, CEO of cryptocurrency investment firm Galaxy Digital: 85%
- Erik Voorhees, co-founder and CEO of cryptocurrency exchange ShapeShift: 85%
- Nic Carter, founder of crypto market data provider Coin Metrics: 85%
- Travis Kling, Chief Investment Officer at crypto asset management firm Ikigai Asset Management: 85%
- Tuur Demeester, founding partner at Bitcoin alpha hedge fund Adamant Capital: 80%
- Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors: 80%
- Anthony Pompliano, co-founder and partner at digital asset management firm Morgan Creek Digital: 75%
- Murad Mahmudov, founder of crypto investment firm Adaptive Capital: 75%
- David Puell, head of research at Adaptive Capital: 70%
- Josh HODLonautszewicz (Twitter handle: @CarpeNoctom), trader: 69%
- Peter Brandt, trading veteran, the founder of the blog Factor Research and Trading: 50%
- Tone Vays, trader and YouTuber: 40%
- Venzen (Twitter handle: @venzen), trader: 39%
- Vinny Lingham, general partner at crypto fund Multicoin Capital and co-founder & CEO of Civic: 30%
- Tyler Jenks, president of asset management firm Lucid Investment: 20%
As reported, New York-based research and consulting boutique specializing in the digital asset market Delphi Digital, claims that the Bitcoin bottom occurred in the first quarter this year, as there aren’t additional sellers coming.
Also, Adamant Capital has recently published a report on what could drive Bitcoin’s price going forward, regardless of the direction it might take. "While lower prices are still possible, Bitcoin’s fundamentals are gaining momentum. Embraced by Millennials, its ecosystem is developing at rapid clip, both as a decentralized bottom-up disruptive technology, and as an uncorrelated, highly liquid financial asset for institutional portfolios around the world," the fund said.
Today’s rally also seems to be indicating a possible upwards turn for the cryptocurrency as it has formed its first bullish golden cross since October 2015 - a candlestick pattern that is a bullish signal in which a relatively short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average. It usually indicates a bull market and is reinforced by high trading volumes - which are at USD 16.3 billion as of the time of writing, while the price of BTC has increased around 5% in the past 24 hours and jumped above USD 5,500.
Ladies & Gents... The Golden Cross!— Mati Greenspan (@MatiGreenspan) April 23, 2019
Bitcoin's 50-day moving average (gold) crossing above her 200-day moving average (blue). 📈
This is yet another sign that we're back in a🐂market. 🚀🌛 pic.twitter.com/VK1PSsOYIB
Others have different ideas, and economist and trader Alex Krüger is one of them: although he warns that his “maximum pain” scenario is not the most likely one:
Maximum pain scenario for $BTC:— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) 22 April 2019
- shoot through to $6000
- rest right above $6000, luring longs in
- dump back down to $4000s in 2 days
- have everyone scream "this is The End"
- slowly move back up
"As Bitcoin edges back up, that previous USD 6,000 support level has now turned into resistance and is now firmly in the spotlight. A move back above here will bring the USD 10,000 level back in focus," added George McDonaugh, CEO of London listed digital asset investment company KR1.
However, he thinks that the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin will test USD 6,000, fail and head back down back towards USD 4,000.
"I would expect the price to break through USD 6,000 on any second or third attempt and from there the aim would be to get back to USD 10,000," according to the CEO.