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Bitcoin Price Prediction: German BTC Transfer and ETF Outflows; Will BTC Recover Above $61,000?

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 3 min read
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s oldest and most valuable cryptocurrency, has struggled to halt its downward trend, falling below the $61,000 level and hitting an intraday low of $58,890. BTC has since recovered and is now trading above the $61,000 mark.

Contributing factors to this decline include the German government’s transfer of nearly 6,500 BTC, Mt. Gox announcing the return of $8.5 billion worth of BTC to clients, and significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Additionally, stronger US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance are key factors weighing on BTC prices. Investors are also closely watching the upcoming CB Consumer Confidence data from the US, expected at 100.0, down from the previous 102.0, which could further influence market sentiment.

German Government’s Bitcoin Transfer Sparks Selling Pressure Speculation

A recent transfer by a wallet labeled “German Government (BKA)” by Arkham has raised eyebrows in the cryptocurrency community. This wallet moved 6,500 BTC, valued at over $425 million, including 1,000 BTC to Kraken and Bitstamp. The transactions have led to speculation about a potential liquidation of seized assets. Despite these large movements, the wallet still holds 43,359 BTC, worth approximately $2.83 billion.

This significant activity suggests an increase in selling pressure, especially from long-term Bitcoin holders. If these assets are moved to exchanges, it could lead to a further decline in Bitcoin prices.

Key Points:

  • 6,500 BTC, valued at $425 million, transferred by the German Government.
  • Wallet still holds 43,359 BTC, worth $2.83 billion.
  • Potential increase in selling pressure from long-term holders.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows and Institutional Sell-Offs Weigh Down BTC Price

Significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, surpassing $1 billion in the last ten days, are putting downward pressure on BTC price. Grayscale’s GBTC has seen total outflows of $18.4 billion since inception. On June 24, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $170 million in outflows, with BlackRock’s BIT seeing no inflows.

Despite a strong start to 2024 with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin has struggled in Q2. The cryptocurrency is facing consolidation as institutional interest wanes amid global market uncertainties and consistent sell-offs in Bitcoin investment products.

Key Points:

  • Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1 billion in outflows recently.
  • Grayscale’s GBTC has experienced $18.4 billion in total outflows.
  • Market uncertainty and institutional sell-offs continue to pressure Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading at $61,340, reflecting an increase of 1.76%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $62,140, suggesting a bearish Bitcoin price prediction.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $63,435, $64,510, and $65,710.

These levels indicate potential upward targets if the price breaks through the pivot point.

Bitcoin Price Prediction - Source: Tradingview

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Source: Tradingview

On the downside, immediate support is found at $60,620, with further support at $59,670 and $58,630. These levels are critical as they suggest where the price might stabilize if it starts to decline.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 37, indicating that Bitcoin is approaching oversold territory, which could potentially lead to a rebound.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $64,010, providing a significant resistance level.

Overall, Bitcoin remains bearish below the pivot point of $62,140. A break above this level could shift the bias towards a bullish trend, while a break below immediate support at $60,620 could drive further selling pressure.

Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.