Bitcoin Price Prediction as Recession Fears Rise – Can BTC Reach $100,000 After Bear Market?
Over the past few days, the Bitcoin price has hardly budged from the $19,000 level, maintaining a narrow range.
Concerns about a recession are seemingly holding investors back from deploying more capital.
Advisor Authority Poll Signals Recession Fear
According to Nationwide’s annual Advisor Authority poll, released on Monday, investors and advisers are worried by the present macroeconomic situation. As a result, their optimism has plummeted considerably.
Investor confidence in the 12 months has dropped from 49% a year ago to 39%. Equally dismal, financial advisors’ and experts’ optimism is 48%, down 15% from 2021. While 54% of investors anticipate greater volatility in the next 12 months, their fear of a recession is 20% higher.
It’s noteworthy that 75% of investors are worried about a recession, just like they were in 2020 at the height of the epidemic. Advisors and financial experts are even more anxious, with 82% expecting a recession in 2022, up from 77% in 2020.
Hence, investors are shifting away from crypto and stocks and toward safe-haven assets due to the fear of a recession.
IMF Downgrades Economic Projections
On Tuesday, the IMF lowered its projections for global economic growth in 2023, citing Russia’s protracted war with Ukraine, widespread inflationary pressures, and increased interest rates that increase borrowing rates for businesses and consumers as reasons.
The international financing agency for 190 countries has reduced its growth forecast for the world for 2019 to 2.7% from 2.9% in July.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies will decline to 3.7% in 2022 and 2023. The shocks of 2022 are worsening the long-term effects of the pandemic on output and unemployment. Read the #WEO for the latest analysis: https://t.co/VBrRHOfbIE pic.twitter.com/vu6W5nVh93— IMF (@IMFNews) October 11, 2022
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has not revised its growth forecast for 2022, which remains at a modest 3.2% but is still less than half of the 6% growth seen in 2018.
According to IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,
More than a third of the global economy will contract this year or next, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union, and China — will continue to stall,”
According to the IMF’s forecast, more than a third of the world’s economy will experience two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the coming year. The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, are both experiencing sluggish growth, and major European economies are also encountering economic headwinds. The US and its Western allies have slapped crippling sanctions on Russia due to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
The IMF forecasts global growth to slow from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. This is the weakest growth since 2001, except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the pandemic. https://t.co/VBrRHOweKE #WEO pic.twitter.com/PjkCtAJWVD— IMF (@IMFNews) October 11, 2022
The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth forecast for the US economy this year from 2.3% to 1.6% due to economic uncertainties and significant consumer price rises.
The International Monetary Fund projects a global rise in consumer prices of 8.8 percent in 2022, 6.5% in 2023, and 4.1 in 2024.
Is volatility on the way? Inflows into Bitcoin Exchanges Skyrocket
Since “whales” have apparently transferred a large quantity of Bitcoin to spot exchanges, this situation could soon shift. CryptoQuant, a well-known analytics platform for cryptocurrencies, reports a dramatic increase in deposits to spot markets.
The majority of these transactions come from “whale” addresses that own hundreds to thousands of Bitcoin and have been sending them to cryptocurrency exchanges.
A comment from a CryptoQuant analyst reads as follows:
It seems that whales want lower prices for Bitcoin. Transferring from wallets that have from 100 to 1000 Bitcoin in large quantities to the spot exchanges a while ago, the price could press down more and it could be a distribution to different wallets.
But on the downside, I expect the negative scenario and take caution.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Can BTC Reach $100,000 After Bear Market?
According to Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin price is bullish long-term, will reach $100,000 by 2025, and the cryptocurrency market will thrive as a “revived bull market.”
A Matter of Time? $2,000 #Gold, $100,000 #Bitcoin, $50 #CrudeOil –— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) August 8, 2022
The energy spike is proving its own worst enemy, with macroeconomic implications that may buoy gold and help Bitcoin transition toward a high-beta version of the metal and Treasury bonds. pic.twitter.com/4RO3wkMYxf
In his opinion, Bitcoin’s dramatic reversal is just getting started, and this bear market reflects the highest inflation rate in four decades.
From a technical analysis point of view, Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is trading sideways in a range between $25,666 to $18,630. On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the triple bottom support of $18,650 but has yet to break below it. Bitcoin has formed a Doji on the weekly timeframe, and spinning top candles are indicating investor indecision.
Given the stronger-than-expected economic events in the United States, the Fed may raise interest rates in the coming months. With a rate hike, we may see further declines in Bitcoin demand, eventually breaking below the triple-bottom support level of $18,630 and pushing BTC toward $12,835.
Conversely, dovish Fed policy could see BTC pushing up higher.
In this case, increased BTC demand could push the price up to a major resistance level of $25,666. Above this, the previously broken upward trendline may provide additional resistance near $32,330. In the long term, Bitcoin has the potential to reach $100,000, but this is unlikely to happen anytime soon. For traders that can’t wait that long for gains, presales may be worth looking into.
IMPT Presale The Next Big Crypto?
The ongoing Impact Project (IMPT) presale has received a lot of attention in recent days after raising over $3.6 million in just over a week.
IMPT is a decentralized carbon credits marketplace that began its sale just over a week ago.
Based on the Ethereum blockchain, it provides users with the ability to trade NFT-based carbon offsets and get rewarded while shopping at supported retailers. At a time when ESG investing is becoming a big deal, it has the fundamentals to perform well.
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