5 Historic Post-Halving Bitcoin Price Predictions
Let’s remember five high-profile post-halving bitcoin price predictions that may make you want to stack more sats and hope that they are right.
Tim Draper and USD 250,0000
In 2018, renowned venture capitalist Tim Draper predicted that the price of bitcoin would hit USD 250,000 on or before 2022. Draper made the comments in April, 2018, when bitcoin was trading around the USD 8,000 mark, dropping below USD 4,000 in November that year. Considered by many somewhat ludicrous at the time, Draper has since doubled down on his earlier prediction.
Speaking at the recently held Virtual Blockchain Week, Draper reiterated his USD 250,000 bitcoin price stating:
“That's my prediction. Sticking with it. I'm very confident that that is going to happen. I'm very confident that that is going to happen. That’s happening. It's kind of funny.”
Draper believes stimulus packages that should debase the value of fiat currency and worldwide bitcoin adoption will play major roles in the price movements.
Dan Morehead and USD 115,000
In a more data-focused prediction, Pantera Capital lead, Dan Morehead, believes the price of bitcoin will hit the USD 100,000 mark after the halving. In a letter to Pantera Capital investors, Morehead wrote: “Extrapolating this relationship to 2020: The reduction in supply is only 40% as great as in 2016. If this relationship holds, that would imply about 40% as much price impulse — bitcoin would peak at USD 115,212 /BTC.”
Morehead is referencing historical data relating to the activity witnessed on the bitcoin price after past halving events. He further explained: “When the number of bitcoins they receive and thus sell is cut in half, it’s got to have an impact. That is what has happened in both past cycles. The magnitude of the impact is proportional to the scale of the decrease in supply.”
Pantera Capital research shows that the price of typically bottomed around 450 days before the halving, and then grew slowly after the event. Additionally, post-having rallies typically last 446 days, which is counted from the event to the peak of the price pump. Morehead concluded:
“It seems reasonable to say that if the new supply of bitcoin is cut in half, all else being equal, the price should rise(…). In this cycle, the market did in fact trough 514 days before the halving. IF history were to repeat itself, bitcoin would peak in August 2021.”
Charlie Shrem and gradual rally
Well-known crypto personality, a founding member of the Bitcoin Foundation, Charlie Shrem, seems to agree with Morehead. Speaking at the Virtual Blockchain Week 2020, Shrem began his statement on the possible effects of the bitcoin halving event by referencing the global pandemic. He stated, “It's kind of crazy that we have a halving during coronavirus because it was such a black swan event.”
Shrem believes the combination of governmental measures to ease financial pressures on the public during the COVID 19 pandemic and the halving will have a positive effect on the price of bitcoin. However, he believes it won’t be immediate and will likely peak at some point in 2021. Shrem added:
“I was looking at data, and it looks like around last halving it wasn't that the price doubled instantly, but the last halving was actually the start of the epic bull run in 2017 — which was a year and a half later.”
Preston Pysh and USD 300,000
While the predictions above have considered historical price activity, some players contend that bitcoin’s price activity post the halving event will surpass the more conservative forecasts.
One of these is the investment advisor Preston Pysh. Pysh, the founder of Buffett’s Books, predicts the price of bitcoin to go up to USD 300,000 after “the Halvening.”
Speaking during an interview with Nathan Latka, Pysh stated:
"I would tell you that I think the next orbit level is USD 80,000 to USD 100,000. [...] It's gonna go straight through that number, and it's probably gonna go to USD 200,000 or USD 300,000."
Additionally, Pysh believes electrical expenses play a role in the price activity of bitcoin post a halving event and this time will be no different.
Raoul Paul and USD 1 million
The prediction with the highest price tag attached to it comes from former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal who is credited with correctly predicting the 2007/8 Financial Crisis. Pal does not rule out that the price of bitcoin may reach USD 1 million before the next halving event in 2024.
Pal drew parallels between gold and bitcoin finalizing:
“Gold is the protection of our assets. Bitcoin is the call option on the future system. Both are going to save us and probably make us rich. Gold can go up 3-times or 5-times in the next three to five years. Bitcoin, well, that’s a different story. I think [bitcoin] can get to USD 1 million in the same time period.”
At pixel time (15:32 UTC), BTC trades at USD 9,506 and is down by 1.4% in a day and 5% in a week. The price is up by 41% in a month and 19% in a year.