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Bitcoin Price Prediction as $20 Billion Sends BTC Toward $40,000 – Has the Bull Market Started?

Joel Frank
Last updated: | 4 min read
Bitcoin (BTC) Chart
Bitcoin (BTC) Chart / Source: TradingView

The Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are taking a breather on Saturday, with the cryptocurrency moving sideways just below the yearly highs it printed earlier this year near $38,000, with BTC last changing hands for around $37,150.

The cryptocurrency remains on course to post a strong weekly gain of around 6% as traders digest various bullish narratives like optimism about upcoming spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the US and a seemingly improving macro backdrop as investors position for the end of the US Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.

That would mark a fourth successive week in the green for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency having pumped up a stunning 40% since its mid-October lows in the $26,000s.

Indeed, the recent rally puts Bitcoin on course to post its strongest four-week run of gains since January, which it pumped up 42% from under $17,000 to nearly $24,000.

Speculation is rife that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to approve a batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs as soon as January, so newsflow on this topic will remain a big market mover for the foreseeable future.

But macro events are also likely to remain in the spotlight.

Next week sees the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for October that, if week like the latest US jobs and manufacturing PMI numbers, could add to bets that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, and that a rate cutting cycle will soon begin.

This would likely weigh on US government bond yields and support US stock prices and, given the historical positive correlation between US stocks and crypto and negative correlation between US yields and crypto, would likely provide fresh tailwinds for crypto.

Of course, strong data could cause an opposite reaction, especially given that recent rhetoric from the Fed has remained hawkish, with the bank seemingly trying to convince the market that the door remains open to further interest rate hikes.

Price Prediction – Where Next for the Price of Bitcoin (BTC)?

Was US inflation data to surprise to the upside and US retail sales numbers to push back against the idea of a US economic slowdown in Q4 after Q3’s surprising surge, Bitcoin could be at risk of a short-term correction of as much as 5%.

The cryptocurrency recently broke to the north of a short-term upwards trend channel, but could easily slip back into it and even back towards the bottom of it to test its 21DMA, which was last around $34,750.

Bitcoin (BTC) Chart
Bitcoin (BTC) Chart / Source: TradingView

But its worth noting that Bitcoin has been remarkably resilient to unfavorable macro developments in recent months, rallying strongly in October despite US yields hitting multi-decade highs and US stocks correcting lower.

Any macro-driven correction could be short-lived, especially with Bitcoin-specific bullish narratives such as upcoming spot ETF approvals and the upcoming 2024 halving generating so much excitement.

Bitcoin price predictions are set to remain bullish.

Chart analysis suggests that with Bitcoin having broken convincingly to the north of the resistance $32,000-$34,000ish resistance zone, a rally towards 2022 highs around $48,000 is likely.

Bitcoin (BTC) Chart
Bitcoin to $48,000?

Has the Bull Market Started?

The definition thrown around by investors when referring to bull markets in the stock market is that when a market moves 20% higher versus a recent low, it has entered a bull market.

By this definition, Bitcoin’s bull market was confirmed as far back as the second week of January.

Of course, crypto prices, including bitcoin, are much more volatile than that of stock market indices like the S&P 500.

But with Bitcoin up more than 140% versus its 2022 lows in the $15,000s, it’s tough to argue against the notion that Bitcoin is not in a new bull market.

Firstly, Bitcoin is following almost perfectly in the footsteps of its traditional market cycle, where it suffers an aggressive one-year pullback (like in 2014, 2018 and 2022), only to then embark on a three-year bull market to hit new all-time highs.

It looks as though Bitcoin is roughly one year into its new three-year bull market cycle.

Adding more color to this analysis on Bitcoin’s typical market cycle, analyst Cory Mitchell wrote in a note shared with members of the crypto press earlier this week that Bitcoin could be set to enter what he calls an “acceleration phase” as soon as mid-2024.

The “really big gains” for Bitcoin historically come a year and a half after the price has bottomed, Mitchell explained, which points to a pump coming sometime around mid-2024, with BTC having last bottomed back in November 2022.

“In 2013, bitcoin rallied 1200% in approximately 100 days… in 2017, it rallied 1900% in just under a year… in late 2020, it rallied 400% in about 140 days”.

“Bitcoin uptrends tend to move quickly once they get going, moving hundreds of percent often in less than a year,” he noted, predicting that Bitcoin could match its record highs around $69,000 as soon as midway through next year.