Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Hits $38,000 Amid MicroStrategy Buy & SEC ETF Buzz

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 5 min read

Bitcoin Recap

Bitcoin, the trailblazing cryptocurrency, has recently witnessed a surge in its value, trading over  $38,000 with a over 0.50% increase on Friday. This spike is partially fueled by MicroStrategy’s strategic move to bolster its Bitcoin reserves, involving a substantial $750 million stock offering and a notable $593 million acquisition of Bitcoin.

In parallel, the crypto sphere is buzzing with activity as Majority Whip Tom Emmer champions cryptocurrency, calling for enhanced stablecoin monitoring while criticizing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as potential tools for surveillance. Adding to this momentum, Blackrock has proposed a “Revised In-Kind Model” for the Spot Bitcoin ETF, a move aimed at addressing the SEC’s concerns and potentially paving the way for its approval.

The SEC’s recent actions have injected a renewed sense of optimism in the market, heightening anticipations for the launch of a Spot Bitcoin ETF.

MicroStrategy’s $750 Million Stock Offering and Bitcoin Investment

MicroStrategy, a software analytics firm, has strategically increased its Bitcoin holdings. The company purchased an additional 16,130 bitcoins for $593.3 million, raising its total to 174,530 – a more than 10% increase. Starting in August 2020, under CEO Michael Saylor’s direction, the company began accumulating Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset. As of November 29, their Bitcoin assets were valued at approximately $6.6 billion. This recent acquisition raised their average purchase price to $30,252. Concurrently, MicroStrategy initiated a $750 million Class A common stock offering with Cowen and Company, aiming to further boost their Bitcoin stakes.

Following this announcement, MicroStrategy’s shares (NASDAQ:MSTR) experienced a modest decrease of 0.82%. However, the company has already realized a substantial profit of around $900 million on its Bitcoin investments, particularly when prices exceeded the $35K mark. This development positively impacts Bitcoin’s price today, signaling ongoing institutional interest and investment in cryptocurrencies.

Tom Emmer Advocates for Stablecoin Oversight and Criticizes CBDCs

Tom Emmer, the House Majority Whip, recently spoke at a Blockchain Association policy event, where he voiced his strong opposition to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). As a notable member of the House Financial Services Committee, Emmer has been a vocal advocate for the cryptocurrency industry. He expressed serious concerns about CBDCs being used as a tool for surveillance, deeming such a direction unacceptable.

Emmer has been instrumental in pushing forward legislation that prohibits the government from issuing a CBDC. He has also been active in supporting bills that oversee market structures and stablecoins. These efforts culminated in a bill’s passage by his committee in September. Despite this progress, Emmer’s resistance to stricter Treasury regulations over stablecoins introduces a level of uncertainty. He perceives such regulations as a potential step towards a “surveillance security state,” which might adversely impact the cryptocurrency realm.

The implications of Emmer’s stance are significant for investors and the broader cryptocurrency market. As they closely monitor regulatory developments, his actions could potentially influence Bitcoin’s price positively in the current climate.

Blackrock’s New Strategy for Spot Bitcoin ETF to Address SEC Concerns

The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, recently reconvened with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to discuss their application for a spot Bitcoin ETF. To address the SEC’s concerns, BlackRock proposed a “revised in-kind” model, also known as a “prepay model,” which aims to mitigate risks and manage balance sheet implications during redemption flows.

The SEC reportedly favors the cash model and has advised exchanges to employ cash-creation strategies for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Despite this, BlackRock continues to advocate for the in-kind creation model, citing benefits such as lower transaction costs and increased resistance to market manipulation.

This move adds to the uncertainty in the regulatory landscape, yet it positively influences today’s Bitcoin price as market participants closely monitor the SEC’s stance on various spot Bitcoin ETF applications, anticipating the approval of multiple ETFs in the first half of next year.

Renewed Optimism for Spot Bitcoin ETF Following SEC Action

To streamline the licensing process, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has initiated public comment periods for the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications submitted by Franklin Templeton and Hashdex. Franklin Templeton, boasting assets worth $1.5 trillion, filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF in October and subsequently revised its application on November 29 to address queries from the SEC. Analyst James Seyffart notes that this move by the SEC sets the stage for potential approvals by the deadline of January 10, 2024.

Historically, the SEC’s concerns about market manipulation and investor protection have led to the rejection or postponement of ETF proposals. However, a shift in approach post-litigation has resulted in greater collaboration with applicant firms. This evolving strategy has sparked expectations that several applications might be approved concurrently. This anticipation is currently contributing to an uptick in Bitcoin’s price, as the market looks forward to potential regulatory approvals.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) presents a reserved yet positive picture in today’s market, trading at approximately $38,150. The 4-hour chart demonstrates a stable progression with key resistance and support levels in focus. The pivotal price point for Bitcoin is currently at $37,572, with immediate resistance observed at $38,249. Should the momentum continue, further resistance levels await at $39,070 and $39,801.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at a moderately bullish 59.24, suggesting potential for growth without signaling an overbought scenario. The upward channel pattern visible on the chart supports this bullish sentiment, indicating persistent buying pressure at the lower trend line.

As long as Bitcoin remains above the pivot point, the near-term outlook remains optimistic, with the currency likely to challenge immediate resistance levels. Traders may anticipate a test of the $38,249 resistance, and a consolidation above this could pave the way for an approach towards the $39,070 mark.

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