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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Nears $42,500 Amid Bukele Win and Soaring ETF Interest

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 3 min read

During the Asian trading session, Bitcoin’s latest price prediction takes into account a modest retreat to $42,585, marking a slight downturn of over 1%.

This movement coincides with significant developments in the sector: President Nayib Bukele’s electoral success in El Salvador, a nation pioneering Bitcoin as legal tender, and the growing institutional embrace, as evidenced by BlackRock and Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETFs achieving top 10 status in January inflows.

Furthermore, the market is witnessing a substantial shift with the introduction of nine new ETFs, which have effectively sequestered 177,949 Bitcoin, tightening the currency’s availability post-GBTC outflows.

Bukele Secures Presidential Win

Concerns about constitutional changes and the deterioration of democracy are raised by President Nayib Bukele’s apparent grip over the parliamentary assembly and his self-proclaimed landslide victory in El Salvador’s national elections.

Bukele, well-known for his anti-gang policies and support of Bitcoin, has the potential to exercise unheard-of authority and influence El Salvador’s political climate.

Despite opposition from rights groups and economic difficulties, his popularity with voters could strengthen his hold on power.

The announcement may or may not affect Bitcoin prices; Bukele’s advocacy of the cryptocurrency first sparked acceptance but prompted condemnation from the IMF.

The way Bukele’s administration handles foreign policy and economic issues could have an impact on investor confidence and Bitcoin prices in the future.

Bitcoin ETFs Gain Top Flow Ranks

Among all ETFs by greatest flows in January, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF came in eighth and tenth, respectively, with an aggregate of about $4.8 billion.

According to Morningstar, the net flows of BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC were $2.6 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively. Interestingly, with $5.7 billion in withdrawals, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw the second-highest outflows.

The data indicates that the ETFs offered by BlackRock and Fidelity are leading the way in the developing Bitcoin fund market, with roughly $715 million in positive inflows over the course of six days.

Positive effects on BTC prices could result from growing institutional confidence and interest in investment products related to Bitcoin, which could spur more market activity and price growth.

ETFs Lock Away Significant Bitcoin Supply

According to recent reports, after their January 11 launch, a number of recently established spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown their Bitcoin holdings.

As of right present, Fidelity’s FBTC is holding 60,054.87 BTC (estimated at $2.58 billion), while BlackRock’s IBIT is holding 72,466.64 BTC (worth $3.12 billion). The nine ETFs collectively oversee 177,949.11 BTC, or $7.62 billion.

Despite the huge holdings these ETFs have amassed, Grayscale’s GBTC ETF continues to own the most, with 478,337.43 BTC.

The market has seen a withdrawal of 39,206.55 BTC ($1.68 billion) as a result of the introduction of these ETFs.

Because of the increased institutional interest and investment through these recently founded funds, there may be a favorable impact on BTC prices, which might lead to upward price pressure.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) holds just above pivot point of $42,208, suggesting a tenuous hold in bullish territory.

Immediate resistance is at $42,819, with subsequent hurdles at $43,704 and $44,727, potentially capping rallies.

Support is firmer at lower levels, with $41,444 providing the first buffer, followed by $40,532 and $39,541, which could arrest further declines.

Bitcoin Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The RSI is neutral at 46, neither signaling overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD value at -64, below the signal line, hints at potential bearish momentum. Conversely, the 50 EMA at $42,819 aligns with current resistance, emphasizing its significance.

A symmetrical triangle pattern suggests consolidation, but a decisive move above $42,208 could confirm bullish intent.

Overall Trend: Bitcoin shows bullish potential if it sustains above the pivot point of $42,208.

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