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Three Reasons Why Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be About to Fall Back to $20,000

Joel Frank
Last updated: | 2 min read
Bitcoin Logo / Source: Adobe

Despite sharp downside in the US stock market on Tuesday amid a fresh push higher in long-dated US yields to new multi-decade highs as traders pricing in a policy of higher interest rates for longer from the US Federal Reserve, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold up relatively well.

It was last trading in the $26,200s, more than 17% down from the yearly highs it set in July above $31,800.

However, the BTC price remains more than 5% up from earlier monthly lows, as it clings on to its 21DMA for now.

While enthusiasm has faded, investors continue to seem keen to accumulate Bitcoin ahead of next year’s halving and in anticipation of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.

This has been holding the BTC price in the upper $20,000s in recent months, but the case is building for a drop back towards $20,000.

Here are three reasons why.

Macro Headwinds Are Building

Bitcoin is down around 15% since the start of Q3, thanks to a rise in US bond yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The US 10-year yield was last at 4.54%, its highest since 2007, while the 30-year yield was last at 4.68%, its highest since 2011.

The DXY, meanwhile was last at its highest levels since December 2022 above 106.

This trend is being driven by increasing bets that the US Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at higher levels for longer thanks to inflation which is expected to remain at structurally higher levels over the coming years given the US economy’s continued outperformance.

But the Bitcoin (BTC) price has stabilized in recent weeks, despite continued upside in yields and the US dollar.

Arguably then, the cryptocurrency doesn’t properly reflect recent changes to the macro landscape could well see some “catch-up” via a break back to the low $20,000s.

Macro is likely to remain a headwind for Bitcoin until optimism about a rate-cutting cycle takes the edge off of the recent US yield rally. 

Bitcoin in a Bearish Descending Triangle

Bitcoin has also spent the last few months forming a bearish descending triangle structure.

These are widely regarded as important bearish technical structures.

A break below support in the $25,000s could open the door to a wave of near-term technical selling.

And the next major support zone is just under $20,000.

Double Rejection of the 200DMA Plus “Death Cross”

Another reason to be bearish from a technical standpoint is due to recent developments relating to Bitcoin’s major moving averages.

Since breaking below its 200DMA in August, Bitcoin has twice rejected the important level upon retests.

That sends a song signal that the cryptocurrency’s medium-term outlook has taken a shift for the worse, just as Bitcoin strong rebound from the 200DMA back in March was a strong signal of strong medium-term performance.

Bitcoin also experienced a “death cross” this month, where its 50DMA fell under its 200DMA, another signal of a bearish shift in the market’s medium-term momentum.