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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC’s Struggle to Break Through $25,600 and Key Factors Affecting its Future

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 6 min read

Bitcoin is finally showing signs of recovery, but it continues to face challenges in breaking through the $25,600 level.  

In the midst of this struggle, several noteworthy factors have emerged that have impacted Bitcoin’s journey. 

MicroStrategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, envisions a future where Bitcoin reigns supreme, despite increased regulatory scrutiny in the United States. 

Additionally, Celsius, a prominent cryptocurrency platform, has announced plans to convert 15 different tokens to Bitcoin and Ethereum, adding to the market’s dynamics. 

Moreover, Hong Kong has embraced crypto exchanges at a time when the SEC has been cracking down on the industry, signaling a shift in regulatory approaches.

These developments, among others, have played a significant role in influencing Bitcoin’s ongoing battle to break through the $25,600 level. 

By understanding the implications of these factors, we can gain insights into the current market dynamics.

MicroStrategy’s Saylor Foresees Bitcoin-Only Future Amidst Regulatory Scrutiny in the US

Saylor emphasized that MicroStrategy has held the opinion since 2020 that bitcoin (BTC) is the “only institutional-grade investable asset in the crypto space.” 

He highlighted the widespread acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital asset on a global scale and assumed that authorities do not foresee a promising future for other cryptocurrencies.

According to Saylor, there is a lack of enthusiasm for cryptocurrency tokens among regulators and a limited perspective on cryptocurrency exchanges. 

In their opinion, cryptocurrency exchanges should focus primarily on trading, storing, and exchanging pure digital commodities like bitcoin. 

They believe that the entire cryptocurrency sector will eventually narrow down to a niche centered around Bitcoin, along with a few other proof-of-work tokens.

During a Bloomberg interview, Saylor expressed his belief that the general public gradually recognizes that “Bitcoin is the next Bitcoin.” 

He also speculated that Bitcoin’s value could potentially increase by a factor of 10 and then repeat the process.

Saylor emphasized the importance of regulatory clarity in driving Bitcoin adoption.

Not surprisingly, there were dissenting opinions regarding Saylor’s viewpoint, as not everyone shared the same perspective. 

Critics argued that relying on the state’s monopoly of force to protect Bitcoin from market competition might not be the optimal approach.

To sum it up, MicroStrategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, emphasizes that Bitcoin is the only institutional-grade investable asset and believes in its global acceptance. This viewpoint can impact BTC price by instilling confidence among institutional investors and generating increased interest in Bitcoin as a reliable digital asset.

Celsius to Convert 15 Different Tokens to Bitcoin and Ethereum

Moving on to another development in the crypto space, a Celsius address, created on June 21, 2010, has made a significant move. 

Despite the recent 7.5% decrease in the price of Bitcoin this month, the address decided to transfer its entire balance of 50 BTC, equivalent to $1.25 million. 

This transaction marks the first activity from the address in over 12 years. 

Transfers of block rewards from 2010 had become less frequent, especially compared to when the coin’s value was twice as high. 

Btcparser.com, a blockchain parser, detected the complete amount transfer from the “13CFn” address.

According to the official Twitter account, Celsius has announced that starting from July 1st, they will sell all altcoins held by their customers (excluding custody and withhold accounts) and convert them into Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The sale of these tokens is expected to generate more than $215 million, contributing to the existing selling pressure in the market. 

The impact of these sales will be somewhat mitigated by diversifying the proceeds among 15 different crypto assets.

However, it’s important to note that the plan to exchange the cryptocurrencies for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) needs approval from the bankruptcy court. 

This recent move by the Celsius address to transfer its entire balance of 50 BTC has implications for the Bitcoin price. 

Despite the price decrease, this transaction indicates confidence in Bitcoin as a digital asset, as the address chose to convert its holdings into Bitcoin. 

Additionally, Celsius’s announcement to sell altcoins and convert them into Bitcoin and Ethereum will contribute to selling pressure in the market. 

Hong Kong Embraces Crypto Exchanges Amid SEC Crackdown, Says Lawmaker

Shifting our focus to another significant development, amidst the recent crackdown on unregistered cryptocurrency exchanges by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Hong Kong lawmaker Johnny Ng is urging international exchanges to seek licensing opportunities in Hong Kong.

Following the recent crackdown by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on unregistered cryptocurrency exchanges and securities tokens, Hong Kong lawmaker Johnny Ng urges international cryptocurrency exchanges to apply for a license to operate in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong has updated its regulatory framework to foster innovation and cryptocurrency development. 

The new regulation, effective since June 1, aims to encompass all aspects of the public’s engagement with virtual assets. 

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) stated that the new framework focuses on investor protection, market integrity, and managing risks to financial institutions.

Many prominent cryptocurrency exchanges, including Binance and Coinbase, have been scrutinized by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In addition, the regulator has taken steps to freeze assets owned by Binance US.

Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, has reaffirmed that his exchange does not list securities. 

He has expressed Coinbase’s determination to challenge the SEC in court and establish clear regulatory standards for the Bitcoin industry.

Amidst these developments, Gary Gensler, the SEC chair, maintains that there are existing regulations governing cryptocurrency exchanges and considers the majority of crypto tokens, excluding Bitcoin, as securities. 

However, Gensler and the SEC have faced criticism from industry players and lawmakers for their enforcement-focused approach to regulating the Bitcoin market.

The move showcases the growing recognition of cryptocurrencies as legitimate assets, further solidifying Bitcoin’s position as the leading digital currency.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 

On the technical front, Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently experiencing a period of consolidation as it struggles to surpass the resistance level of $25,600. 

During the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin tested the support level at $24,750 and formed a bullish hammer candlestick, indicating a potential reversal in the market. 

The subsequent candlestick closed above the support level, suggesting the presence of bullish momentum.

It is important to note that Bitcoin has already completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around the $25,600 level. 

Failure to break above this level may hinder further upward movement. 

Bitcoin Price chart:: Source: Tradingview

Monitoring the key level of $25,600 is critical to determine the continuation of bullish sentiment. 

However, the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators provide mixed signals. 

The RSI remains below 50, indicating a bearish bias, but it has recently bounced above the zero line, entering the buying zone. 

The MACD also crosses above its signal line, supporting the possibility of a bullish continuation.

If Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $25,600 level, it could potentially target resistance levels at $26,000 and $26,250. 

On the downside, immediate support can be found around $25,150 and $24,750.

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