Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Nears $38K, Bull Run & ETF Hopes Up

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 3 min read
Bitcoin Recap
In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin once again captures headlines with its price surging to $37,861, marking a robust 1.8% increase on Wednesday. Investors and traders alike are riding a wave of optimism as Bitcoin edges toward the $38,000 mark, fueled by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and a potential bullish market swing.

Meanwhile, the crypto regulatory landscape faces renewed scrutiny in Hong Kong as news surfaces of the Hounax exchange founders’ disappearance, allegedly absconding with $19 million.

Amidst these tumultuous developments, Bloomberg analysts strike a hopeful note, eyeing January for a possible breakthrough in Bitcoin ETF approval, which could herald a new chapter for Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream finance.

Fed Policy Shift Fuels Bitcoin’s Surge Past $38K

Bitcoin’s remarkable resurgence has propelled it past the $38,000 mark, signaling a revitalized interest in the cryptocurrency market. The surge is being driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve policy shift toward lowering interest rates amidst subsiding inflation.

Benefiting from an upbeat market sentiment after a challenging 2022, Bitcoin has seen a value increase of 129% this year. Remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, hinting at potential rate cuts, further bolster the bullish outlook for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Consequently, Bitcoin’s price is currently experiencing an uptick.

Hounax Scandal: Exchange Founders Flee with Millions

In a startling revelation, the founders of Hounax, an unregistered cryptocurrency exchange based in Hong Kong, have reportedly absconded with $19 million, impacting 145 users. This incident marks the second substantial cryptocurrency debacle in the city within a span of two months.

The local regulatory authority, the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), faces criticism over perceived regulatory lapses in the burgeoning crypto sector. Hounax is alleged to have lured investors by falsely claiming ties to Coinbase’s original technical team and brandishing a Canadian Money Services Business license.

Despite SFC’s early warning in November, investors’ funds were purportedly withdrawn post-deposit. This scandal trails the disappearance of $120 million from the unlicensed JPEX exchange in September. Calls for tighter regulations by advocates, including lawmakers, may sway public sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

January Hope: Bloomberg Foresees Potential BTC ETF Approval

Amidst ongoing speculation, Bloomberg analysts project a promising horizon for Bitcoin ETFs, anticipating regulatory green lights as early as January 2024. The SEC’s expedited timeline, advancing decisions by 34 days, hints at a strategic alignment for potential approvals by January 10, 2024.

Bloomberg’s ETF experts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, gauge a 90% likelihood of sanctioning spot Bitcoin ETFs by this date. Seyffart’s analysis underscores the supportive nature of recent SEC delays, while Joe Carlasare, a seasoned commercial litigator, forecasts a more conservative approval window around March 2024.

Despite varying expert opinions, the imminent prospect of January approvals, potentially between January 5 and 8, injects optimism into the Bitcoin market, mirroring the uptrend in its valuation driven by these favorable regulatory prospects.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) technical landscape over a 4-hour chart frame presents critical levels to watch. The pivot point stands at $37,161, with immediate resistance observed at $38,684. Subsequent resistance levels at $39,933 and $41,395 await as potential targets for bullish momentum, while support forms firmly at $35,912, with further cushions at $34,419 and $33,140.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60 suggests a tempered bullish sentiment, avoiding overbought territory yet indicating a market leaning towards buying pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reads at 93.89, under the signal line of 133.10, hinting at a cooling bullish trend but not conclusively signaling a reversal.

Bitcoin Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Notably, Bitcoin’s price floats above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $37,333, bolstering the short-term bullish narrative. Chart patterns disclose an ascending triangle, with Bitcoin challenging the resistance near $38,000. A decisive breach here could reaffirm the bullish bias.

In summary, Bitcoin’s trend remains bullish above the $37,333 level, suggesting that the asset is gearing up to challenge and potentially surpass immediate resistance levels. The short-term forecast anticipates a test of the $38,684 resistance, with market dynamics and sentiment likely to drive the narrative in the coming days.

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