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Bitcoin Price Prediction as Crypto Billionaire Arthur Hayes Says BTC Will Drop Around Halving Time – Is the Bull Market Over?

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 2 min read
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin Price Prediction

Arthur Hayes predicts a potential downturn in the Bitcoin market around the April 20 halving event, challenging the usual bullish sentiment.

This Bitcoin price prediction reflects his analysis of market consensus, economic factors, and the impact of U.S. dollar liquidity on crypto assets.

Crypto Billionaire Arthur Hayes Says BTC Will Drop Around Halving Time


Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, foresees a challenging market for cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, until May, predicting a downturn around the BTC halving due on April 20.

Despite the common belief in the halving’s bullish impact—historically associated with significant price rallies—Hayes anticipates a market dip, given the consensus around the event’s positive effect.

  • Halving Dynamics: The upcoming Bitcoin halving, reducing miner rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, is eyed skeptically by Hayes. He argues that the widespread positive sentiment might lead to a contrary market reaction, potentially causing a slump in Bitcoin prices.
  • Economic Factors: The U.S. dollar’s liquidity is expected to tighten due to the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the culmination of U.S. tax payments on April 15, which could extract substantial liquidity from the market. This tightening, combined with a projected TGA balance increase, might precipitate a fire sale of crypto assets.
  • Strategic Moves: Hayes has adjusted his portfolio in response to these predictions, selling off assets like Solana (SOL) and converting them into Ethena’s USDe to earn yields. He suggests that post-May, after the QT pace decreases and potential fiscal stimuli, might be a more favorable trading environment.

Bitcoin Price Prediction


As of today, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price has declined to $69,115, marking a significant drop of around 4%. The asset has breached the support of the upward channel around the $69,875 level, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

Technical analysis reveals immediate resistance levels at $71,425, $72,740, and $73,775, with the pivot point at $69,875 acting as a crucial juncture. On the downside, Bitcoin faces immediate support at $67,525, with further cushions at $66,034 and $64,641.

Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33 suggests a bearish momentum, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $69,725 aligns closely with the pivot, underscoring the market’s current uncertainty.

In conclusion, Bitcoin exhibits a bearish trend below $69,875, with potential for recovery if it surpasses this critical resistance level.

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