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Bitcoin ETF in Q1 and Bitcoin Price All-Time High in Q4: VanEck Predictions 2024

Hongji Feng
Last updated: | 2 min read
Bitcoin ETF
Source: DALL·E

VanEck, a prominent investment management firm, has released a set of 15 cryptocurrency predictions for the year 2024, casting a spotlight on potential significant developments in the digital asset space.

The firm’s report offers a detailed outlook, highlighting key predictions such as the anticipated launch of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the first quarter and a projected record high for Bitcoin prices in the fourth quarter. The report also projects an upsurge in NFT activities and a possible shift in Binance‘s dominance in spot trading.

Bitcoin ETFs and Historical High Price

VanEck predicts the eventual launch of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, coinciding with an expected U.S. recession. They project substantial inflows into these ETFs, exceeding $2.4 billion in the first quarter, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin prices above $30,000.

Drawing on historical analogies with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF, VanEck estimates initial inflows of around $1 billion shortly after the ETFs’ launch, increasing to $2.4 billion within a quarter. Over the first two years, they anticipate a surge in inflows up to $40.4 billion, driven by Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative to traditional hard money assets and a reduction in transaction costs compared to current retail trading fees, such as Coinbase’s transaction fee of roughly 2.5%.

Bitcoin 2024
Source: VanEck

VanEck also anticipates a significant surge in Bitcoin’s value in late 2024. They predict Bitcoin will reach an all-time high on Nov. 9, fueled by political changes, specifically citing the potential election of Donald Trump as a catalyst for a more favorable regulatory environment in the U.S. This forecast aligns with historical patterns of Bitcoin’s price peaking exactly three years apart, as observed in 2017 and 2020.

NFT Market Regains Volume

The NFT market is poised for a significant rebound, with monthly sales volumes expected to reach new record highs. This resurgence is attributed to a renewed interest in crypto, focusing on prominent NFT collections on Ethereum, enhanced crypto games, and innovative Bitcoin-based NFTs.

The introduction of Bitcoin’s Ordinals protocol and the development of Bitcoin’s layer 2 chains are projected to revitalize Bitcoin network fees and shift the NFT market dynamics. As a result, the dominance of Ethereum in primary NFT sales, which has been at a nearly 50-1 ratio compared to Bitcoin, is forecasted to narrow considerably, ending 2024 with a ratio closer to 3-1.

Binance to Descend, More to Rise

A major shift in the ranking of centralized crypto exchanges may also come in 2024, with Binance expected to lose its top spot due to its $4 billion settlement with U.S. regulators. Emerging competitors like OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget are likely to run for the lead. Specifically, Coinbase’s international futures market is projected to experience a significant surge in daily trading volumes.