{"id":105538,"date":"2023-06-03T12:42:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-03T12:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/tr\/?p=115811"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:14:54","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:14:54","slug":"buyuk-domino-ne-yapiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/tr\/news\/buyuk-domino-ne-yapiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fck Domino Ne Yap\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bir bor\u00e7lanma senedi yani bono ya da tahvilin hem kendi de\u011feri hem de faizi vard\u0131r. Mesela 100 dolarl\u0131k 2 y\u0131l vadeli bir bononun %3 faizi olsun. Bu bononun kendi de\u011feri 100 dolar, \u2018held to maturity\u2019 yani vade sonu de\u011feri ise 103 dolard\u0131r. Ancak siz bu bonoya sahipken yeni \u00e7\u0131kan bonolar\u0131n faizi artarsa, sizin tuttu\u011funuz tahvilin faizi art\u0131k piyasa faizinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bonolar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n kendi de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015fer. \u00d6rne\u011fin %4 faizli yeni bir tahvil \u00e7\u0131karsa sizin ka\u011f\u0131d\u0131n kendi de\u011feri, vadesi gelmeden satmaya kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda mesela 99\u2019a iner. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sert olursa, bono de\u011ferleri de sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fer. Fakat 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k vadeyi beklerseniz, bor\u00e7lanma senedini \u00e7\u0131karan kurum (\u015firket, banka, devlet vs) size vade sonu de\u011feri olan 103 dolar\u0131 \u00f6deyecektir.<\/p>

2022 Y\u0131l\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde faiz artt\u0131r\u0131nca hedge fonlar, emeklilik fonlar\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle bankalar\u0131n, ellerinde tuttu\u011fu bonolar\u0131n piyasa de\u011feri h\u0131zla eridi. Bankalar bu bor\u00e7lanma ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 vade sonu de\u011ferinden kabul ettikleri i\u00e7in bilan\u00e7olarda sorun g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyordu. Ancak bir nedenle m\u00fc\u015fteriler paralar\u0131n\u0131 talep etti\u011finde, bankalar ya da fonlar bonolar\u0131 piyasa de\u011ferinden satmak zorunda kalacak ve gerekli paray\u0131 bulamayacaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in iflas ilan edeceklerdi.<\/p>

Mart ay\u0131nda Amerika ve Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fanan bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizinin temelleri asl\u0131nda 2022 Sonbahar\u0131\u2019nda at\u0131ld\u0131. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sonucu ABD Borsa Endeksi SP500, 16 A\u011fustos-12 Ekim aras\u0131nda 4305,2 puandan %16,9 kay\u0131pla 3577,03 puana d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 23 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvillerinde ya\u015fanan yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015flar \u00fclkenin emeklilik fonlar\u0131n\u0131 batma noktas\u0131na getirdi.<\/p>

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Eyl\u00fcl-Ekim d\u00f6neminde meydana gelen bu t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n aylar sonra k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u00f6nemli bankalar\u0131n iflas etmesine neden olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 o tarihte kimse akl\u0131na getirmedi. Oysa Mart 2023\u2019e ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da bankalar domino ta\u015flar\u0131 gibi bir bir devrildi. Amerika\u2019da Silvergate, Signature, Silicon Valley ve First Republic, Avrupa\u2019da ise Credit Suisse teker teker iflas etti. Dominolar\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7reli Credit Suisse<\/a>, 2022 y\u0131l sonunda 1,4 trilyon $\u2019l\u0131k varl\u0131k y\u00f6netiyordu!<\/p>

Peki Credit Suisse 2022 Sonbahar\u0131\u2019nda piyasalar kar\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ne ile me\u015fguld\u00fc? \u0130svi\u00e7reli d\u00fcnya devi sermaye artt\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. \u0130ngiltere bonolar\u0131 patlamadan hemen bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Credit Suisse\u2019in sermaye artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc haberi medyaya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Banka, para bulmak i\u00e7in ABD piyasas\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015flerini ve varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordu<\/a>. Nitekim Credit Suisse 15 Kas\u0131m\u2019da ABD\u2019de varl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerden olu\u015fan portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 satt\u0131. Bu \u00fcr\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde sonradan bir\u00e7ok bankan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na bela olacak ticari gayrimenkul kredilerine dayal\u0131 ka\u011f\u0131tlar \u00f6nemli yer tutuyordu. Suudi National Bank\u2019a 1,6 milyar $ de\u011ferinde hisse sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da yeni sermaye bulma planlar\u0131 i\u00e7indeydi. Ancak 4 milyar $ sermaye bulmak hedefiyle al\u0131nan t\u00fcm bu tedbirler i\u015fe yaramad\u0131. 167 Y\u0131ll\u0131k bankac\u0131l\u0131k devi Credit Suisse 19 Mart\u2019ta iflas etti ve en b\u00fcy\u00fck rakibi UBS\u2019e sat\u0131ld\u0131<\/a>.<\/p>

T\u00fcm bu olaylar\u0131 neden tekrar an\u0131msatt\u0131m? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce Amerika\u2019da baz\u0131 bankalar yine direkten d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olsa da bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizi hala bitmedi. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi yine \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir domino, t\u0131pk\u0131 Credit Suisse\u2019in batmadan \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fine benzer i\u015fler yap\u0131yor.<\/p>

ABD Westlake, Texas merkezli Charles Schwab tam 7,05 trilyon $ y\u00f6netiyor! 33,8 Milyon aktif yat\u0131r\u0131m hesab\u0131, 2,4 milyon emeklilik hesab\u0131 ve 1,7 milyon bankac\u0131l\u0131k hesab\u0131na sahip olan Charles Schwab \u00fclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck onuncu bankas\u0131 olarak kabul ediliyor. \u0130\u015fte ABD\u2019de faaliyet g\u00f6steren bu dev yap\u0131 da t\u0131pk\u0131 Credit Suisse\u2019in iflas etmeden \u00f6nce yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi para bulma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girdi. Charles Schwab, 19 May\u0131s\u2019ta piyasalardan 2,5 milyar $ bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u00dcstelik bankan\u0131n CEO\u2019su Walt Bettinger daha 15 Mart\u2019ta sermaye aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti<\/a>.<\/p>

Charles Schwab 2022 sonunda ABD<\/a>\u2019de sermayesine oranla en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u2018vade sonu de\u011feri\u2019 ile bono tutan bankayd\u0131. Charles Schwab\u2019\u0131n \u2018held to maturity\u2019 yani vade sonuna kadar tutma s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi\u011fi varl\u0131k miktar\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2022\u2019de 173,1 milyar $\u2019a y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Oysa bu varl\u0131k kalemi 2021 sonunda \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r\u2019d\u0131. Bankan\u0131n hemen sat\u0131\u015fa uygun varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011feri ise ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 390,1 milyar $\u2019dan 147,9 milyar $\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Charles Schwab\u2019\u0131n sermayesi yani varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan m\u00fc\u015fterilerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kalan fark ise 2021 sonunda 56 milyar $\u2019dan, 2022 sonunda 36,6 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015fti. E\u011fer banka bir nedenle vade sonu de\u011feri ile kaydetti\u011fi bonolar\u0131 piyasa de\u011ferinden satmak zorunda kalsa muhtemelen sermaye 20 milyar $\u2019lara kadar d\u00fc\u015fecekti<\/a>. Sermayenin negatife ge\u00e7mesi bankalar\u0131n m\u00fc\u015fteri taleplerini yerine getirememesi ve iflas etmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>

Mart ay\u0131 sonunda Charles Schwab\u2019\u0131n durumu daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcye gitti. Hemen sat\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131r varl\u0131klar\u0131n de\u011feri 147.9 milyar $\u2019dan 141,3 milyar $\u2019a indi. Sermaye ise 36,6 milyar $\u2019dan 36,3 milyar $\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc<\/a>. Bu da bankan\u0131n Mart\u2019ta inkar etti\u011fi halde May\u0131s\u2019ta neden para bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>

Charles Schwab bu durumda olan tek banka de\u011fil. Pacwest, Western Allience, Bank of Hawaii, BPPR, US Bank Corp vb bir \u00e7ok banka hakk\u0131nda s\u00f6ylentiler dola\u015f\u0131yor. Elbette Charles Schwap\u2019\u0131n piyasada para ar\u0131yor olmas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na, bankan\u0131n kesinlikle bataca\u011f\u0131na dair bir delil olu\u015fturmaz. Ancak \u00f6zellikle enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik verileri Fed<\/a>\u2019in istedi\u011fi kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmez ve merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na birka\u00e7 ay daha devam ederse ya da ekonomik durgunluk \u015fiddetlenirse bu bankalar\u0131n durumunun daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fece\u011fini unutmamak gerek. Bir g\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz bunlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde olmal\u0131\u2026<\/p>

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\u0130lginizi \u00e7ekebilir:<\/h4>