{"id":105044,"date":"2023-03-31T12:28:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T12:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/tr\/?p=109201"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:15:00","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:15:00","slug":"secimden-sonra-dolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/tr\/exclusives\/secimden-sonra-dolar\/","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7imden Sonra Dolar"},"content":{"rendered":"
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G\u00f6rsel kayna\u011f\u0131: Pixabay<\/sup><\/figcaption><\/figure>

Dolar\/TL\u2019de Son g\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f\u0131n iki ana nedeni var: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131nda rekorlar k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 171 milyar TL ve Ocak-\u015eubat d\u00f6neminde ise 203 milyar TL oldu<\/a>. Oysa T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fct\u00e7esi 2022\u2019nin tamam\u0131nda 139 milyar TL<\/a> a\u00e7\u0131k vermi\u015fti. Y\u0131l\u0131n sadece ilk iki ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki senenin tamam\u0131na k\u0131yasla %46 daha fazla b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 meydana geldi!<\/p>

Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, yani T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelen ve \u00fclkeden \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00f6viz aras\u0131nda olu\u015fan fark ise Ocak\u2019ta ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine oranla %42 artarak 9,8 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Bu cari a\u00e7\u0131k, ayl\u0131k bazda Cumhuriyet tarihinin en y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak tarihe ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>

Bu a\u00e7\u0131klar dolar\/TL \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015ftururken mevcut y\u00f6netim ve tabi Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) asl\u0131nda \u00e7e\u015fitli y\u00f6ntemlerle kuru yava\u015flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece TL asl\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle ihracat\u0131n artabilmesi i\u00e7in gerekenden daha de\u011ferli bir konumda kald\u0131. AK Parti b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde psikolojik 20 TL s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ilmesini istemiyor.<\/p>

\u00d6te yandan \u2018Bank of America – Merrill Lynch\u2019 son yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye raporunda ekonominin dengelenebilmesi i\u00e7in dolar\u0131n %15-25 aras\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtti. Buna g\u00f6re dolar\u0131n 22-24 TL band\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Banka, se\u00e7imi kim kazan\u0131rsa kazans\u0131n TL’de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bekliyor. Raporda, mevcut iktidar\u0131n galip gelmesi halinde daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve d\u00fczensiz bir dolar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olabilece\u011fi vurgulanm\u0131\u015f. Yani bankaya g\u00f6re AK Parti kazan\u0131rsa dolar 24\u2019\u00fc de a\u015fabilir. Rapor, se\u00e7imi muhalefetin kazanmas\u0131 halinde de, yeni iktidar olu\u015fana kadar Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n TL\u2019yi bask\u0131layan m\u00fcdahalelerinin ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, bu senaryoda kurun s\u0131\u00e7rama yapmas\u0131n\u0131n da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu ifade ediyor. Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle banka, CHP \u00f6nderli\u011finde birle\u015fen muhalefet kazan\u0131rsa, yeni idare tam olarak iktidar haline gelene kadar dolar\u0131n 22-24 TL aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7rama yapabilece\u011fini belirtmi\u015f.<\/p>

\"t\u00fcrkiye<\/figure>

Bloomberg 22 Mart\u2019ta yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir de\u011ferlendirmede muhalefetin kazanmas\u0131 halinde yeni ekonomi bakan\u0131 olarak \u0130Y\u0130 Parti Ekonomi Politikalar\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Prof. Bilge Y\u0131lmaz\u2019\u0131 i\u015faret etti<\/a>. Prof. Y\u0131lmaz ise 29 Mart\u2019ta Twitter\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir payla\u015f\u0131mda iktidara gelmeleri halinde dolar\u0131n durumu ile ilgili olarak \u201cNe zaman patlayacak diye s\u00fcrekli endi\u015fe ile takip edilen dolar kuru sakinle\u015fecek\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131<\/a>. Buradan muhalefetin se\u00e7imi kazan\u0131rsa dolar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi de\u011fil kurda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gidermeyi hedefledi\u011fini anl\u0131yoruz. Bu durumda Bank of America – Merrill Lynch\u2019in %15-25 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 senaryosu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile yeni bir idare bunu ani de\u011fil zamana yayarak yapmak isteyecektir.<\/p>

Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, EYT \u00f6demeleri ve deprem harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131rsak; se\u00e7imi kim kazan\u0131rsa kazans\u0131n dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 do\u011fru olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc iktidar yani Cumhur \u0130ttifak\u0131 se\u00e7imi kazan\u0131rsa \u00f6nce Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n dolar \u00fczerine koydu\u011fu frenleri kald\u0131racakt\u0131r. Fakat Cumhur \u0130ttifak\u2019\u0131 da kur y\u00fckseli\u015finin ani ve h\u0131zl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 istemez. Frenler yava\u015f yava\u015f kald\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Y\u00fckseli\u015f son g\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fanandan biraz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir.<\/p>

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc muhalefetin yani Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 halinde de kurda sert s\u0131\u00e7rama meydana gelmesi ihtimali, Bank of America – Merrill Lynch\u2019in iddias\u0131n\u0131n aksine daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmesi halinde Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu, TCMB y\u00f6neticilerini kurda ani ve h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmelere neden olmamalar\u0131 aksi halde yarg\u0131lanacaklar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda uyaracakt\u0131r.<\/p>

Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoda dolarda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131, durmas\u0131 hatta tersine d\u00f6nmesi ancak yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye<\/a>\u2019ye yo\u011fun yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu ve yeni ekonomi ekibi yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ne kadar \u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7ekebilirse dolar o kadar yava\u015flayacak hatta d\u00fc\u015fecektir. Bu nedenle bir iktidar de\u011fi\u015fimi halinde dolar\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00f6zellikle do\u011frudan fabrika yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olarak ne kadar sermaye girdi\u011fini takip etmek gerekir. ABD<\/a> ve Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fanan bankac\u0131l\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel bir ekonomik krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse olas\u0131 bir yeni idarenin uluslararas\u0131 pazarlardan sermaye \u00e7ekmesi de zorla\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>

Bu arada se\u00e7imleri kim kazan\u0131rsa kazans\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan para getirmek istiyorsa blockchain ve kripto varl\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne de \u00f6nem vermesi gerekir. Ekosistemi destekleyecek ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 koruyacak hukuki bir altyap\u0131 kurulmas\u0131 ve te\u015fvik edici bir vergi politikas\u0131 ile milyarlarca dolar ek sermayenin kripto varl\u0131klar ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye akmas\u0131 ve TL\u2019ye istikrar kazand\u0131rmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>

_____<\/p>

\u0130lginizi \u00e7ekebilecek makaleler:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>