{"id":1601,"date":"2026-04-06T13:14:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T13:14:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/sl\/novice\/odstevanje-do-podatkov-cpi-zakaj-bo-10-april-odlocilen-za-bitcoinov-preboj-proti-75-000-usd\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T13:13:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T13:13:52","slug":"bitcoin-cpi-kljucni-signal-za-trg-in-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/sl\/novice\/bitcoin-cpi-kljucni-signal-za-trg-in-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Od\u0161tevanje do podatkov CPI: Zakaj bo 10. april odlo\u010dilen za Bitcoinov preboj proti 75.000 USD"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin se konsolidira tik pod 70.000 USD, pri \u010demer lahko en na\u010drtovan dogodek ta teden preoblikuje vzorec v katero koli smer: objava mar\u010devskega indeksa cen \u017eivljenjskih potreb\u0161\u010din (CPI), ki bo objavljen 10. aprila ob 14.30 po srednjeevropskem \u010dasu. Scenarij je jasen: \u010de bodo podatki o inflaciji v ZDA dovolj ugodni, da bi se retorika Federal Reserve premaknila proti zni\u017eanju obrestnih mer, bo 75.000 USD za BTC postal takoj\u0161nja tehni\u010dna tar\u010da; \u010de jedrni CPI ostane nad 0,3 % na mese\u010dni ravni, se bo scenarij \u00bbvi\u0161je obrestne mere dlje \u010dasa\u00ab znova uveljavil, pot najmanj\u0161ega odpora pa bo vodila nazaj proti 60.000\u201362.000 USD.<\/p>

Napoved Cleveland Fed-a (nowcast), ki temelji na podatkih s konca marca, napoveduje 0,84-odstotni mese\u010dni skok skupne inflacije, ki ga poganjajo cene bencina (rast za 26,2 % medletno) in dizla (rast za 50,4 %). Ta podatek bi, \u010de bo potrjen, pomenil mo\u010dan pospe\u0161ek glede na februarskih 0,27 % in bi u\u010dinkovito zamrznil vse pogovore o obratu politike Federal Reserve vsaj do sredine poletja. Makro trgovalne mize za kriptovalute prek opcijskih tokov \u017ee vra\u010dunavajo dva radikalno razli\u010dna svetova. \u010cetrtkova objava bo odlo\u010dila, v katerem se nahajamo.<\/p>

Nivo 75.000 USD za Bitcoin: Popolna tehni\u010dna raz\u010dlenitev in cenovni scenariji<\/strong><\/a><\/p>

Napoved cene Bitcoina: Vrnitev na 75.000 USD ali umik na 60.000 USD<\/h2>

<\/span>
\n\"\"<\/p>

(Vir \u2013 BTC USD, TradingView<\/a>)<\/p>

Bitcoin se trenutno giblje v obmo\u010dju med 65.000 USD in 71.000 USD. To je obmo\u010dje kompresije, ki vztraja \u017ee ve\u010d tednov in se po strukturi grafikona bli\u017ea to\u010dki odlo\u010ditve. Nivo 73.700 USD predstavlja neposreden odpor; nad njim pa je psiholo\u0161ka meja 75.000 USD, ki deluje kot klju\u010dni nivo vse od zadnjega neuspe\u0161nega poskusa preboja.<\/p>

Tedensko zaprtje nad 75.000 USD ob pove\u010danem obsegu trgovanja zaradi podatkov CPI bi bila prva strukturna potrditev, da je bikovski scenarij \u0161e vedno v veljavi.<\/p>

Indeks RSI na dnevni ravni je pri 53 \u2013 nevtralno, kar pomeni, da se tehni\u010dno dno ne gradi le na podlagi iz\u010drpanosti zagona. 200-dnevni EMA konvergira z obmo\u010djem podpore pri 67.500 USD, zaradi \u010desar je ta nivo v kratkem \u010dasu klju\u010dnega pomena. Dnevno zaprtje pod 67.500 USD odpira vrata do 62.000 USD, kjer se nahajata znatna globina knjige naro\u010dil in prej\u0161nja struktura akumulacije. Razmerje MVRV ostaja pod 1,5, kar nakazuje, da trg \u0161e ni dosegel obmo\u010dja evforije \u2013 vendar to tudi pomeni, da nakupni pritisk na verigi \u0161e ni dovolj dominanten, da bi ustvaril samovzdr\u017een zagon.<\/p>

Bikovski scenarij zahteva premik po objavi CPI nad 71.000 USD, nato pa ponovno osvojitev 73.700 USD ob vzdr\u017enem obsegu, s potrditvenim zaprtjem pri 75.000 USD. Medvedji scenarij se aktivira ob previsoki inflaciji: zavrnitev pri 71.000 USD, ki bi povzro\u010dila padec nazaj skozi 200-dnevni EMA in ciljala na obmo\u010dje akumulacije kitov med 60.000 USD in 62.000 USD. Za imetnike, ki \u017ee zasedajo pozicije, scenarij padca pod 66.000 USD zahteva resno modeliranje tveganja pred \u010detrtkom. Najpomembnej\u0161i nivo: 71.000 USD. \u010ce se po objavi obdr\u017ei nad njo, bikovski scenarij pre\u017eivi. \u010ce jo izgubi, postane 62.000 USD naslednje sidro.<\/p>

Zakaj bo objava CPI 10. aprila ponastavila \u010dasovnico Fed-a \u2013 in vrh Bitcoina<\/h2>

<\/span>
\nRazmerje med Bitcoina in CPI ni naklju\u010dno \u2013 je mehani\u010dno. CPI narekuje pri\u010dakovanja glede obrestnih mer Fed-a, ta vplivajo na dolar in donose dr\u017eavnih obveznic, mo\u010d dolarja pa neposredno omejuje apetit institucij po tveganih nalo\u017ebah, vklju\u010dno z BTC. Februarski CPI je zna\u0161al 2,4 % medletno, pri \u010demer se je jedrna inflacija \u017ee drugi zaporedni mesec obdr\u017eala pri 2,5 % letno, kar so spodbudili stro\u0161ki stanovanj z 0,2-odstotno rastjo. Ta vztrajnost je ohranila dr\u017eo \u00bbvi\u0161je za dlje \u010dasa\u00ab kot prevladujo\u010d odnos Fed-a pred aprilskim podatkovnim ciklom.<\/p>

Prag, ki je pomemben za signal o obratu Federal Reserve, je mese\u010dna jedrna inflacija na ravni 0,2 % ali manj \u2013 vse nad 0,3 % utrjuje trenutno politiko in odmika prvo zni\u017eanje. CME FedWatch<\/a> trenutno vra\u010dunava manj kot dve zni\u017eanji za leto 2025, kar je dramati\u010dna sprememba glede na konsenz o \u0161tirih zni\u017eanjih ob za\u010detku leta. Energija je neznanka: napoved Cleveland Fed-a skoraj v celoti poganjajo skoki cen bencina in dizla, Fed pa je zgodovinsko gledal skozi volatilne energetske komponente pri ocenjevanju osnovnih inflacijskih trendov. \u010ce bo skupna inflacija visoka, jedrna pa pod nadzorom, bi trgovci to lahko interpretirali kot pogojno zeleno lu\u010d.<\/p>

Mar\u010devska poro\u010dila o zaposlovanju so pokazala 178.000 novih delovnih mest, brezposelnost pa ostaja pri 4,3 % \u2013 trg dela, ki ne nakazuje neposredne recesije in Fed-u daje prostor za ohranjanje obrestnih mer. Objava podatkov o inflaciji v ZDA 10. aprila ne bo premaknila Bitcoina le na tisti dan; ponovno bo umerila celotno \u010dasovnico zni\u017eevanja obrestnih mer, na kateri temeljijo institucionalne pozicije v kriptovalutah.<\/p>

\"\"<\/p>

(Vir \u2013 CoinGlass<\/a>)<\/p>

Prilivi v promptne Bitcoin ETF-e skladov IBIT (BlackRock) in FBTC (Fidelity) ka\u017eejo neposredno ob\u010dutljivost na odstopanja CPI \u2013 previsoki podatki takoj pritegnejo pipo teh prilivov.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CPI 10. aprila: Odlo\u010dilni trenutek za Bitcoinov poskus preboja na 75.000 USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":759,"featured_media":1600,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,12],"tags":[20,42,24,22],"editors":[16],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-1601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoin","category-novice","tag-bitcoin","tag-cpi","tag-crypto","tag-krypto","editors-klavdija-pogorelc"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin CPI: klju\u010dni signal za trg in Fed<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin se giblje tik pod 70.000 USD, CPI objava 10. aprila pa lahko odlo\u010di smer trga in vpliva na Fed ter obrestne mere.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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