Prediction Markets Say Trump Won the Election Debate - but Barely
Even prediction markets seemingly don't know what to make of last night's face-off between US President Donald Trump and his challenger for the upcoming election, Joe Biden, though it appears Trump's chances for a win have increased ever so slightly.
Thursday night saw the second and final election debate, during which the organizers went for a muted microphone approach, so no candidate would talk over the other - particularly following Trump's multiple interruptions during the previous debate nearly a month ago.
As of press time Friday (10:39 UTC), however, the Trump 2020 futures contract that is traded on crypto derivatives exchange FTX went up 1%, now standing at USD 0.376. However, shortly before the debate and moving into it, it dropped more than 7.5%, but was back up to its previous level as the debate ended. In comparison, after the last debate, it stood at USD 0.405.
As a reminder, this contract expires to USD 1 if Donald Trump wins the 2020 US presidential general election, and USD 0 if not.
Furthermore, ‘YES Trump’ and ‘NO Trump’ tokens issued by the decentralized prediction market protocol Augur (REP) show a slightly different story, though with the same result. Currently, the former is down 3.8%, but the latter is also down 3.4%, according to CoinGecko.com - nonetheless predicting Trump's victory, but barely.
Meanwhile, Biden 2020 future contract is almost unchanged, but currently standing at USD 0.632, compared to Trump's USD 0.376.
The Cryptoverse also noted the prediction markets' small movements.
Not sure what to think about the debate. But at least they weren't talking over each other the entire time.— Hans HODL (@hansthered) October 23, 2020
Prediction markets have TRUMP down slightly, no... wait he's up slightly now. Guess we'll see. https://t.co/s3iJCrXMVl pic.twitter.com/akIG8LoZRf
As with any event of such relevance, there is an intense debate online over who came out of it as a victor, with both sides' supporters claiming it is their candidate. Yet many of the debate watchers seem to have left it unsure as to who exactly won, if anybody. One commenter posted that Biden won as he "made it to the end," Trump won as he "behaved and didn't interrupt," the moderator won "cos fair," with others adding more "participation rewards" to the mix.
Another well-known investor, Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki, tweeted that politics is a "nasty game," and that the US dollar is dying, unlike bitcoin (BTC).
LAST DEBATE. CNN poll says Biden won. FOX poll says Trump won. Politics nasty game. America and world in serious trouble regardless who wins. Economy collapsing. Jim Rickards says gold will go to $50,000. If true how high will silver and Bitcoin go? Dollar is dying. Take care.— therealkiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) October 23, 2020
Others have tried finding answers about who won the debate, and who may eventually win the election, via polls. Here too, a small majority seems to think it was the current president. Per one such poll, nearly 50% of 611 voters have "no clue" who won. Nonetheless, of the remaining 51%, 35% selected Trump.
Another poll by FTX and Alamada Research CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, asked who the polled viewers would say had won, with the majority voting 'Trump.'
26) ok mid-debate poll: who do you think polls of viewers will say won? (NOT who do _you_ think won, who will people say won.)— SBF (@SBF_Alameda) October 23, 2020
Per The Washington Post, citing an average of national polls since October 12, Biden leads Trump by nine percentage points nationally, 52% to 43%.
No, I don’t believe anyone’s minds will be changed. But, just bc he has a quicker tongue doesn’t mean he “won” the debate. Words matter.— ₿.R.E.A.M. (@thedjnaj) October 23, 2020
Your 401Ks are going to hell either way. #Bitcoin— Soona (@soonaorlater) October 23, 2020
Missing the debate to lift, I’ve seen enough of biden’s incoherence for a lifetime anyway pic.twitter.com/OXbvz6tWVW— CryptoGainz (@CryptoGainz1) October 23, 2020