Prediction Markets Say Trump Won the Election Debate – but Barely
Even prediction markets seemingly don’t know what to make of last night’s face-off between US President Donald Trump and his challenger for the upcoming election, Joe Biden, though it appears Trump’s chances for a win have increased ever so slightly.
Thursday night saw the second and final election debate, during which the organizers went for a muted microphone approach, so no candidate would talk over the other – particularly following Trump’s multiple interruptions during the previous debate nearly a month ago.
As of press time Friday (10:39 UTC), however, the Trump 2020 futures contract that is traded on crypto derivatives exchange FTX went up 1%, now standing at USD 0.376. However, shortly before the debate and moving into it, it dropped more than 7.5%, but was back up to its previous level as the debate ended. In comparison, after the last debate, it stood at USD 0.405.
As a reminder, this contract expires to USD 1 if Donald Trump wins the 2020 US presidential general election, and USD 0 if not.
Similarly, the prediction tokens show small percentages, but a higher chance for Trump winning the election. TRUMPWIN token went up 1.35%, while TRUMPLOSE token dropped 0.63%.
Furthermore, ‘YES Trump’ and ‘NO Trump’ tokens issued by the decentralized prediction market protocol Augur (REP) show a slightly different story, though with the same result. Currently, the former is down 3.8%, but the latter is also down 3.4%, according to CoinGecko.com – nonetheless predicting Trump’s victory, but barely.
Meanwhile, Biden 2020 future contract is almost unchanged, but currently standing at USD 0.632, compared to Trump’s USD 0.376.
The Cryptoverse also noted the prediction markets’ small movements.
As with any event of such relevance, there is an intense debate online over who came out of it as a victor, with both sides’ supporters claiming it is their candidate. Yet many of the debate watchers seem to have left it unsure as to who exactly won, if anybody. One commenter posted that Biden won as he “made it to the end,” Trump won as he “behaved and didn’t interrupt,” the moderator won “cos fair,” with others adding more “participation rewards” to the mix.
“Biden doing great. Trump doing better than last time. No one changing their mind tonight,” commented founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz.
Another well-known investor, Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki, tweeted that politics is a “nasty game,” and that the US dollar is dying, unlike bitcoin (BTC).
Others have tried finding answers about who won the debate, and who may eventually win the election, via polls. Here too, a small majority seems to think it was the current president. Per one such poll, nearly 50% of 611 voters have “no clue” who won. Nonetheless, of the remaining 51%, 35% selected Trump.
Another poll by FTX and Alamada Research CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, asked who the polled viewers would say had won, with the majority voting ‘Trump.’
Per The Washington Post, citing an average of national polls since October 12, Biden leads Trump by nine percentage points nationally, 52% to 43%.
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