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Bitcoin Price Prediction as Non Farm Payroll Data is Announced – Bull Market Starting Soon?

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 4 min read

The recent release of the Non-Farm Payroll data has caused a notable impact on the price of Bitcoin. 

With the data revealing positive job growth in the United States, market sentiment has favored a bullish outlook for the US dollar. 

Therefore, Bitcoin experienced a downward movement in response to the positive report. 

Traders and investors are closely analyzing this reaction and assessing its implications for the future trajectory of Bitcoin. 

The market’s response to the Non-Farm Payroll data highlights the complexity and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market, reminding us of the need for careful analysis and monitoring of economic indicators when predicting Bitcoin’s price movements.

Strong Nonfarm Payroll Data Boosts US Dollar and Treasury Yields

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Nonfarm Payroll data for May, reporting a significant increase of 339,000 jobs. 

This figure exceeded market expectations, which had anticipated around 190,000 jobs. 

Additionally, April’s reading was revised higher from 253,000 to 294,000.

Simultaneously, the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.7% from the previous 3.4%, while the Labor Force Participation rate remained steady at 62.6%. 

Average Hourly Earnings, a measure of wage inflation, experienced a slight decline from 4.4% to 4.3%.

The BLS highlighted that the number of individuals employed part-time for economic reasons remained relatively unchanged at 3.7 million. 

These individuals, who desired full-time employment but could not secure it, either had their hours reduced or could not find full-time jobs.

Market reaction to the positive data was swift. 

US Dollar Index – Source: Tradingview

The US Dollar Index reversed its earlier losses and turned positive, surpassing the 103.50 level. Furthermore, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield experienced an upward shift, rebounding to 3.65%.

Despite the strong data, market expectations for the US Federal Reserve remain unchanged.

The CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that there is still a nearly 70% probability of the Fed maintaining its policy rate unchanged in June.

Bitcoin Price Impact of Positive Nonfarm Payroll Data Release

The positive Nonfarm Payroll data release can have an impact on the price of Bitcoin. 

As strong job growth is typically seen as a positive economic indicator, it can contribute to increased investor confidence and potentially lead to a stronger US dollar. 

However, the exact impact on Bitcoin’s price can vary and is influenced by a range of factors, including market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and investor preferences. 

It is important to closely monitor market reactions and trends to assess the potential impact on Bitcoin’s price after the Nonfarm Payrolls data release.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $26,954, showing a less than 0.50% increase in the past 24 hours. 

The trading volume during this period reached $15.4 billion. Bitcoin holds the top spot on CoinMarketCap, with a market capitalization of $522 billion. 

The circulating supply consists of 19,390,950 BTC coins, while the maximum supply is set at 21,000,000 BTC coins.

Bitcoin exhibited bullish momentum around the $27,200 level before the release of the US non-farm payroll figures; however, following the release of the NFP data, which showed strong numbers, a correction in bitcoin prices occurred, causing it to trade below the $27,000 level. 

The 50-day exponential moving average on the hourly timeframe acted as resistance around the $27,200 level, pushing the bitcoin prices lower.

Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Currently, bitcoin is likely to find some support around the $26,600 level, and a break below this level has the potential to trigger further downside momentum.

It is worth noting that bitcoin has formed a descending triangle pattern when observing the larger timeframes, which typically indicates a breakout.

This descending triangle pattern, along with the double bottom support at $26,600, is providing resistance around the $27,000 to $27,500 levels.

In terms of potential price movement, a break below $26,600 could expose bitcoin to the next support level at $26,000. 

On the other hand, if Bitcoin manages to break above the $27,275 level, the next target could be around $27,500 or even higher, around the $27,800 level.

For now, it is important to monitor the $27,250 level and consider taking positions until the $26,600 level. 

It is advisable to stay updated on the market trends and price movements to make informed decisions regarding bitcoin trading.

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