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Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Falls Below $36,500 – Where is the Next Support Level?

Arslan Butt
Last updated: | 4 min read

Bitcoin Recap

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a slight retreat, now trading at $36,410, marking a 0.25% decrease on Saturday. This latest fluctuation comes amid significant developments in the crypto space.

The IMF chief’s encouragement for the adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), Coinbase facing penalties for its data localization practices in Russia, Fidelity’s ambitious plans to expand into the Ether ETF market and collaborate with BlackRock, and the surging Bitcoin transaction fees driven by the growing interest in BTC ETFs.

These diverse factors contribute to the dynamic landscape of Bitcoin, raising questions about its next support level and the broader implications for the cryptocurrency market.

IMF Chief Advocates for CBDCs: Embracing the Digital Currency Era

Central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, have been promoted by International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who claims they can effectively replace cash. During her speech at the Singapore Fintech Festival, Georgieva highlighted the need for public sectors to prepare for the implementation of CBDCs, aimed at facilitating cross-border payments.

She emphasized the potential of CBDCs to enhance financial inclusion and their cost-effectiveness, particularly in island economies. The IMF also published a CBDC guidebook to serve as a resource for international policymakers.

Georgieva urged nations to be open to the possible implementation of CBDCs, while recognizing the ongoing regulatory advancements in digital currency.

The impact of Bitcoin on this stance is that digital currencies will be more broadly acknowledged, and discussions about CBDCs and the exploration of digital alternatives may influence the evolution of international finance in the future.

Coinbase’s Data Localization Woes: Facing Penalties in Russia

The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has been fined over $11,000 by a Russian court for violating a regulation that requires foreign businesses to localize user data from Russian citizens.

The court found Coinbase guilty of an administrative violation according to Russian law. Over 600 organizations are reportedly in compliance with the legislation, which has been in effect since the end of May and mandates foreign corporations to localize databases of Russian users.

Prominent organizations including Apple, Spotify, WhatsApp, Match Group, the owner of Tinder, and Airbnb have all been penalized for non-compliance. Some argue that Russia uses the data localization law, enacted in 2014, as a tool against Western organizations.

This scrutiny of how governments are monitoring cryptocurrency exchanges for compliance with local data laws may also be influencing the global regulatory landscape surrounding digital assets and could be a contributing factor to the recent decline in Bitcoin.

Fidelity’s Crypto Leap: Venturing into Ether ETFs and BlackRock Partnership

In a significant move towards mainstream cryptocurrency adoption, financial giants Fidelity and BlackRock are now vying to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Fidelity’s latest endeavor involves filing for an ETF focused on Ethereum’s ether, hot on the heels of BlackRock’s similar initiative.

Pending U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval, Fidelity’s proposed Ethereum Fund aims for listing on a Cboe Global Markets exchange. Both Fidelity and BlackRock are leveraging the ETF format to offer investors a more accessible avenue into Bitcoin, the more prominent of the cryptocurrencies.

These developments mark a crucial juncture in regulatory decisions by the SEC, with potential far-reaching implications for the accessibility and mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies among regular investors.

Bitcoin Fees Surge: The ETF Frenzy Effect

The Bitcoin blockchain witnessed a staggering 746% increase in average transaction fees on November 16, reaching $11.6 million, as expectations for a U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval soared. The average transaction fee now stands at $18.69, marking a 113% jump from the previous day.

This surge is attributed to heightened demand driven by major asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK Invest, and WisdomTree filing for spot BTC ETFs with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

As the SEC collaborates with firms on proposed amendments, extending its final decision timeline to January 2024, analysts anticipate a 90% probability of ETF approval in January. This potential approval is expected to attract institutional investors and propel Bitcoin to record highs in the following months.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin‘s critical pivot point is currently at $35,875, a key determinant of its short-term trajectory. It confronts immediate resistance at $36,656, with subsequent thresholds at $37,190 and $38,025, which could indicate bullish trends if surpassed. Support levels at $35,260, $34,540, and $33,700 are essential for cushioning declines.

With an RSI at 48, Bitcoin shows a neutral stance, suggesting possible movements in either direction. The 50-Day EMA at $36,400 mirrors Bitcoin’s current price, pointing to a balanced market.

The cryptocurrency is now oscillating within a narrow range, between $35,875 and $36,650. This indecision phase in the market may lead to significant price action if a breakout occurs.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Overall, Bitcoin’s outlook appears cautiously optimistic above $35,875. Its next movements hinge on surpassing key resistances, potentially signaling a stronger bullish momentum. However, given the market’s inherent volatility, external influences could swiftly alter its direction, necessitating vigilance among traders.

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