{"id":186633,"date":"2024-10-11T14:35:53","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T14:35:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kr.cryptonews.com\/news\/trader-peter-brant-predicts-135k-bitcoin-in-2025-but-short-term-challenges-loom\/"},"modified":"2024-10-11T14:35:53","modified_gmt":"2024-10-11T14:35:53","slug":"trader-peter-brant-predicts-135k-bitcoin-in-2025-but-short-term-challenges-loom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/kr\/news\/trader-peter-brant-predicts-135k-bitcoin-in-2025-but-short-term-challenges-loom\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud53c\ud130 \ube0c\ub780\ud2b8 “2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 13\ub9cc5000\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc8fc\ucda4\ud560 \uac83”"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>

베테랑 트레이더 피터 브란트(Peter Brandt)에 따르면 비트코인이 내년 여섯 자릿수를 유지하려면 48,000달러 아래로 하락하는 것을 피해야 한다고 한다.<\/p>

브란트는 10월 9일 X(구 트위터) 게시물에서 비트코인의 2025년 전망<\/a>을 제시했으며, 이번 3월 이후 시장의 하향조정을 “일시적 하락”으로 묘사하면서 본격적인 강세장이 시작될 것이라고 설명했다.<\/p>

이번 전망은 과거 반감기 사이클을 기반으로 한다. 과거 데이터에 따르면, 비트코인의 4년 주기 반감기 후반부에 항상 가장 가파른 가격 상승이 발생한다. 이러한 거시적 관점에서 브란트는 2025년 8월에서 9월까지 비트코인 목표가를 135,000달러로 설정했다.<\/p>

\"BTC\/USDT<\/figure>

그러나 한 가지 주의 사항이 있다. 만약 하락세가 시장을 장악하고 비트코인이 크게 하락한다면 48,000달러가 이 예측의 갈림길이 될 것이다.<\/p>

브란트는 “48,000달러 이하로 마감하면 내 차트 분석은 무효가 된다”고 말했다.<\/p>

10x 리서치, 비트코인 맥시멀리스트들에게 경고<\/h2><\/span>

거시적 트렌드는 통찰력을 제공할 수 있지만 10x 리서치 CEO 마커스 틸린(Markus Theilin)은 10월 9일 보고서에서 이러한 트렌드가 “지나치게 단순하고 불충분한” 근거가 될 수 있다고 경고했다.<\/p>

그는 비트코인 맥시멀리스트들 사이에서 반감기 이후 비트코인 가격이 “무한대로 상승할 것”이며 “연준의 금리 인하와 통화 공급 증가로 알 수 있는 유동성 사이클의 저점” 이후 비트코인이 기하급수적으로 상승할 것이라는 기대를 언급했다.<\/p>

이러한 요인들이 확실히 상승 동력을 제공하지만 틸린은 이러한 거시적 요인을 뒷받침하는 강력한 펀더멘털이 필요하다고 강조했다.<\/p>

이는 비트코인이 최근 반감기 이후 몇 달 동안 계속해서 하락세를 확인하는 상황에서 분명하게 나타나고 있다. 한편, 9월 연준의 금리 인하 이후 미국 경제가 연착륙할 것이라는 내러티브가 점점 더 그럴듯해 보이다.<\/p>

\"Bitcoin
비트코인 하락세. 출처: 10x 리서치.<\/figcaption><\/figure>

보고서는 현재 시장이 충분한 모멘텀이 부족하다고 주장한다. “거시적 요인이 방향을 설정할 수는 있지만, 충분한 바람이 불지 않으면 배는 항로를 유지할 수 없다”고 덧붙였다.<\/p>

미국 대통령 선거, 결정적 역할할 것<\/h2><\/span>

비트코인이 돌파구를 마련하기 위해 필요한 동력을 제공할 수 있는 잠재적 촉매제 중 하나로 틸린은 오는 11월 5일 미국 대선을 지목했다.<\/p>

트럼프 공화당 대선주자의 승리는 암호화폐 시장에 긍정적으로 작용할 것으로 예상된다. 그는 비트코인 2024에 참여했으며 월드 리버티 파이낸셜(World Liberty Financial)<\/a>이라는 분산형 금융(DeFi) 프로젝트와 관련이 있기 때문이다.<\/p>

분석가들은 트럼프 행정부가 친암호화폐 정책 개발을 가속화할 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 이전 스탠다드 차터드 보고서는 트럼프 당선 시, 비트코인 가격 목표를 220,000달러<\/a>로 설정한 바 있다.<\/p>

동시에 보고서는 해리스 민주당 대선후보가 비트코인을 새로운 고점으로 이끌 가능성도 강조했다. 최근 디지털 자산에 대한 그의 공개적인 지지<\/a> 이후, 75,000달러 목표를 설정했지만 그의 당선이 초기 가격 하락을 초래할 수 있다고 경고했다. 투자자들은 시장에 대한 규제가 강화되면서 저가 매수를 할 것으로 예상된다.<\/p>

틸린은 4분기 랠리에 대한 희망을 포기하기에는 “아직 이르다”고 낙관적인 견해를 밝히면서도 효과적인 리스크 관리가 “중요하다”고 강조했다.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

베테랑 트레이더 피터 브란트(Peter Brandt)에 따르면 비트코인이 내년 여섯 자릿수를 유지하려면 48,000달러 아래로 하락하는 것을 피해야 한다고 한다.브란트는 10월 9일 X(구 트위터) 게시물에서 비트코인의 2025년 전망을 제시했으며, 이번 3월 이후 시장의 하향조정을 “일시적 하락”으로 묘사하면서 본격적인 강세장이 시작될 것이라고 설명했다.이번 전망은 과거 반감기 사이클을 기반으로 한다. 과거 데이터에 따르면, 비트코인의 4년 주기 반감기 후반부에 항상 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":189,"featured_media":186634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"editors":[],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-186633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\ud53c\ud130 \ube0c\ub780\ud2b8 "2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 13\ub9cc5000\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc8fc\ucda4\ud560 \uac83"<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\ubca0\ud14c\ub791 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