{"id":128278,"date":"2023-12-14T15:24:23","date_gmt":"2023-12-14T15:24:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kr.cryptonews.com\/?p=128278"},"modified":"2023-12-14T15:46:44","modified_gmt":"2023-12-14T15:46:44","slug":"bitcoin-price-pumps-as-dovish-fed-signals-three-rate-cuts-in-2024-where-next-for-btc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/kr\/news\/bitcoin-price-pumps-as-dovish-fed-signals-three-rate-cuts-in-2024-where-next-for-btc\/","title":{"rendered":"\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \ubc18\ub4f1 – \uc5f0\uc900 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801 \uc785\uc7a5 \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub0b4\uba70 2024\ub144 3 \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc2dc\uc0ac"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"비트코인
출처: 어도비<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>
미 연준의 금리 정책 발표에 전통 자산 시장이 비둘기파적으로 반응하면서 비트코인 가격도 반등했다.\n

기사 작성 시점 기준으로 비트코인은 전일 대비 3% 상승해 4만 2,500달러대에 거래되고 있다. 매수 세력은 이제 12월 초에 닿았던 고점 부근인 4만 4,000달러에 재도전할 준비를 하고 있다.<\/p>\n

연준은 모두가 예측한 대로 금리를 동결해 <\/a>몇 십년 동안의 최고 수준인 5.25~5.5%의 기준 금리를 유지하기로 결정했다.<\/p>\n

연준 – 인플레이션과 성장, 고용 시장 모두 둔화 전망 – 금리 인상 여지 생길까?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/span>
\n연준의 분기별 경제 전망 및 금리 인상 전망을 보면 내년에 인플레이션이 둔화되며 금리 인하를 시작할 가능성이 존재한다.<\/p>\n

연준은 물가상승률이 올해 말에 2.8%, 2024년 말에는 2.4%까지 하락해 목표인 2.0%에 가까워질 것이라고 전망했다.<\/p>\n

또한 경제성장률도 2023년의 2.6%보다 낮은 1.4%를 내년에 기록하고 실업률 역시 현재의 3.7%보다 높은 4.1%를 기록할 것이라고 전망했다.<\/p>\n

연방공개시장위 위원들의 예측을 요약한 닷 플랏(dot plot)을 보면 인플레이션과 경제성장률, 고용시장의 전망에 따라 내년에 금리 인상할 여지가 생길 수 있다. 평균적으로 위원들은 2024년 말까지 세 차례 25bp 금리 인하가 발생할 것이라고 보았으며 금리 인상을 예측한 위원은 없었다.<\/p>\n

연준 발표에 대한 시장의 반응<\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/span>
\n금융 시장 그리고 가상화폐 시장의 관점에서 미 연준의 최신 통화 정책 발표는 미국의 경제적 상황이 느슨해지고 유동성이 증가할 것이라는 기대로 이어져 미국 국채 수익률과 미국 달러의 하락, 증시와 가상자산 시장의 펌핑을 유발했다.<\/p>\n

미국 금리 선물 시장을 분석해 미래 금리 움직임을 예측하는 CME 페드와치 도구<\/a>는 발표 전에 연준이 3월에 금리를 인하하기 시작할 확률을 40%라고 분석했지만, 금리 동결 발표 이후 확률이 75%로 올랐다.<\/p>\n

또한 2024년 말까지 최소한 150bp 이상 금리를 인하할 확률이 20%였으나 금리 동결 발표 이후 그 확률이 60%까지 높아졌다.<\/p>\n

비트코인 가격의 행방은?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/span>
\n현재 4만 2,500달러대에 거래되는 비트코인은 12월 8일에 4만 4,700달러대의 연 고점에서 폭락한 후 가격을 절반 가량 회복했다.<\/p>\n

\"비트코인
출처: 트레이딩뷰<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

12월 11일에 비트코인 가격이 한때 4만 180달러까지 하락했던 조정을 두고 분석가들은 수익 실현 및 선물 시장의 과도한 레버리지 청산을 이유로 꼽았다.<\/p>\n

그러나 이제 선물 시장도 투자 열기가 어느 정도 진정되었다. 코인글래스<\/a>에 따르면 비트코인 선물 계약의 미결제약정 펀딩비가 12월 9일 당시 0.035%에서 0.016%로 하락해 건전하면서도 여전히 강세인 비율로 돌아왔다.<\/p>\n

이에 따라 레버리지 청산으로 인한 단기 급락 가능성이 적어져 앞으로 상승을 지속할 수 있는 기반이 형성되었다.<\/p>\n

비트코인은 당분간 강세 전망을 유지할 것으로 보인다. 임박한 연준의 금리 인하와 현물 비트코인 ETF의 승인 기대감으로 인한 기관 투자자 채택 증가, 비트코인 반감기, 비트코인 친화적 대통령의 2024년 당선 가능성 모두 낙관론을 키우고 있다.<\/p>\n

최근 기술적 지표도 긍정적이어서 매수에 집중하는 트레이더가 더욱 많아질 것으로 보인다.<\/p>\n

비트코인은 저가 매수세에 따라 급격히 하락한 후 반등하며 심리적 저항선이자 21일 이동평균선이 위치한 4만 달러선을 사수했다. 이는 수요가 여전히 강하다는 것을 보여주며 불장에서 기대할 수 있는 종류의 기술적 움직임이었다.<\/p>\n

\"비트코인
출처: 트레이딩뷰<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

다음 주요 목표 가격은 2022년 고점인 4만 8,200달러이다.<\/p>\n

한 달 동안 비트코인 시세가 16% 이상 오른 “산타 랠리”가 연말까지 이어질지, 그리고 더 나아가 BTC가 4만 8,000달러까지 도달한 후 내년을 맞이할 수 있을지는 아직 지켜보아야 할 것이다.<\/p>\n

그러나 상승 쪽으로 확률이 기운 것만은 확실해보인다.<\/p>\n

\"비트코인
출처: 트레이딩뷰<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

함께 읽을 만한 기사<\/strong><\/p>\n

블랙록 ETF 승인되면 비트코인 ETF 토큰이 10배 폭등할 수 있을까?<\/a><\/p>\n

2023년 KYC 인증 없는 거래소 순위 – 본인인증 없는 해외 코인 거래소 순위<\/a><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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