{"id":131818,"date":"2024-10-24T22:43:39","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T13:43:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/jp\/?p=131818"},"modified":"2024-10-24T22:43:39","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T22:43:39","slug":"bitcoin-trump-election-price-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/jp\/news\/bitcoin-trump-election-price-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u6c0f\u52dd\u5229\u3067\u30d3\u30c3\u30c8\u30b3\u30a4\u30f31400\u4e07\u5186\u304b\uff5cBitwise\u304c\u5927\u80c6\u4e88\u6e2c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#36039;&#29987;&#36939;&#29992;&#20250;&#31038;Bitwise&#12398;&#12472;&#12455;&#12501;&#12539;&#12497;&#12540;&#12463;&#25126;&#30053;&#36012;&#20219;&#32773;&#12399;22&#26085;&#12289;2024&#24180;&#31859;&#22823;&#32113;&#38936;&#36984;&#12391;&#12489;&#12490;&#12523;&#12489;&#12539;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12364;&#21213;&#21033;&#12375;&#12383;&#22580;&#21512;&#12289;&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#65288;BTC&#65289;&#20385;&#26684;&#12364;92000&#12489;&#12523;&#65288;&#32004;1400&#19975;&#20870;&#65289;&#12414;&#12391;&#19978;&#26119;&#12377;&#12427;&#21487;&#33021;&#24615;&#12364;&#12354;&#12427;&#12392;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/dgt10011\/status\/1848705737272217968\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#20104;&#28204;&#12375;&#12383;<\/a>&#12290;\n<\/p><h2>&#20998;&#25955;&#22411;&#20104;&#28204;&#24066;&#22580;&#12398;&#21205;&#21521;&#12363;&#12425;&#20385;&#26684;&#20104;&#28204;<\/h2><p><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><\/p><p>\n&#12497;&#12540;&#12463;&#27663;&#12399;&#20998;&#25955;&#22411;&#20104;&#28204;&#24066;&#22580;Polymarket&#65288;&#12509;&#12522;&#12510;&#12540;&#12465;&#12483;&#12488;&#65289;&#12395;&#12362;&#12369;&#12427;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12398;&#21213;&#21033;&#30906;&#29575;&#12392;&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#20385;&#26684;&#12398;&#30456;&#38306;&#38306;&#20418;&#12434;&#20998;&#26512;&#12290;<\/p><p>&#12381;&#12398;&#32080;&#26524;&#12289;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12398;&#24403;&#36984;&#12364;&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#24066;&#22580;&#12395;&#22823;&#12365;&#12394;&#24433;&#38911;&#12434;&#19982;&#12360;&#12427;&#21487;&#33021;&#24615;&#12364;&#12354;&#12427;&#12392;&#25351;&#25688;&#12375;&#12383;&#12290;<\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Charting <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> price against Trump\u2019s odds (via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Polymarket?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Polymarket<\/a>) from 8\/15 to 10\/20 reveals some wild swings\u2014particularly when Harris and Trump took turns leading. By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000<\/p>\n<p>Take that as you will <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OGy8M3Vju1\">pic.twitter.com\/OGy8M3Vju1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Jeff Park (@dgt10011) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/dgt10011\/status\/1848705737272217968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote><p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p><p>&#29694;&#22312;&#12398;&#19990;&#35542;&#35519;&#26619;&#12391;&#12399;&#12459;&#12510;&#12521;&#12539;&#12495;&#12522;&#12473;&#27663;&#12364;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12395;&#23550;&#12375;&#12390;1.8%&#12398;&#12522;&#12540;&#12489;&#12434;&#20445;&#12387;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290;<\/p><p>&#19968;&#26041;&#12391;&#12509;&#12522;&#12510;&#12540;&#12465;&#12483;&#12488;&#12391;&#12399;&#12289;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12364;&#22823;&#12365;&#12394;&#12522;&#12540;&#12489;&#12434;&#35211;&#12379;&#12390;&#12362;&#12426;&#12289;<a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/jp\/cryptocurrency\/\">&#26263;&#21495;&#36890;&#36008;&#65288;&#20206;&#24819;&#36890;&#36008;&#65289;<\/a>&#25237;&#36039;&#23478;&#12398;&#38291;&#12391;&#21213;&#21033;&#12408;&#12398;&#26399;&#24453;&#12364;&#39640;&#12414;&#12387;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290;<\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-131820\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/10\/1729777257-polymarket_oct24.jpg\" alt=\"2024 Election Forecast\" width=\"1200\" height=\"929\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/10\/24224057\/1729777257-polymarket_oct24.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/10\/24224057\/1729777257-polymarket_oct24-300x232.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/10\/24224057\/1729777257-polymarket_oct24-1024x793.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/10\/24224057\/1729777257-polymarket_oct24-768x595.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/10\/24224057\/1729777257-polymarket_oct24-450x348.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\">\n<\/p><h2>&#26989;&#30028;&#12363;&#12425;&#12398;&#26399;&#24453;&#12392;&#25080;&#24565;<\/h2><p><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><\/p><p>\n&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12399;&#31859;&#22269;&#12434;&#12300;&#20206;&#24819;&#36890;&#36008;&#12398;&#39318;&#37117;&#12301;&#12395;&#12377;&#12427;&#12371;&#12392;&#12434;&#20844;&#32004;&#12395;&#25522;&#12370;&#12289;&#23601;&#20219;&#21021;&#26085;&#12395;&#12466;&#12540;&#12522;&#12540;&#12539;&#12466;&#12531;&#12473;&#12521;&#12540;&#35388;&#21048;&#21462;&#24341;&#22996;&#21729;&#20250;&#65288;SEC&#65289;&#22996;&#21729;&#38263;&#12434;&#35299;&#20219;&#12377;&#12427;&#24847;&#21521;&#12434;&#31034;&#12375;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290;<\/p><p>&#38306;&#36899;: <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/jp\/news\/trump-crypto-policy-challenges\/\">&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#31859;&#22823;&#32113;&#38936;&#20505;&#35036;&#12398;&#20206;&#24819;&#36890;&#36008;&#20844;&#32004;&#65372;&#23455;&#29694;&#24615;&#12395;&#23554;&#38272;&#23478;&#12364;&#30097;&#21839;<\/a><\/p><p>&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#20740;&#19975;&#38263;&#32773;&#12398;&#12456;&#12522;&#12483;&#12463;&#12539;&#12501;&#12451;&#12531;&#12510;&#12531;&#27663;&#12418;&#12289;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12398;&#25919;&#31574;&#12364;&#20206;&#24819;&#36890;&#36008;&#24066;&#22580;&#12398;&#25104;&#38263;&#12434;&#24460;&#25276;&#12375;&#12375;&#12289;&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#20385;&#26684;&#12434;10&#19975;&#12489;&#12523;&#65288;&#32004;1522&#19975;&#20870;&#65289;&#12414;&#12391;&#25276;&#12375;&#19978;&#12370;&#12427;&#21487;&#33021;&#24615;&#12364;&#12354;&#12427;&#12392;&#20104;&#28204;&#12375;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290;<\/p><p>&#19968;&#26041;&#12391;&#12289;&#12499;&#12522;&#12458;&#12493;&#12450;&#25237;&#36039;&#23478;&#12398;&#12510;&#12540;&#12463;&#12539;&#12461;&#12517;&#12540;&#12496;&#12531;&#27663;&#12399;&#12289;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12398;&#32076;&#28168;&#25919;&#31574;&#12395;&#12424;&#12427;&#12452;&#12531;&#12501;&#12524;&#22311;&#21147;&#12434;&#25080;&#24565;&#12290;&#20206;&#24819;&#36890;&#36008;&#24066;&#22580;&#12398;&#19978;&#26119;&#12399;&#19968;&#26178;&#30340;&#12394;&#12418;&#12398;&#12395;&#12392;&#12393;&#12414;&#12427;&#21487;&#33021;&#24615;&#12434;&#25351;&#25688;&#12375;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290;\n<\/p><h2>&#20206;&#24819;&#36890;&#36008;&#26989;&#30028;&#12363;&#12425;&#12398;&#36984;&#25369;&#36039;&#37329;<\/h2><p><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><\/p><p>\n&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12434;&#25903;&#25345;&#12377;&#12427;&#25919;&#27835;&#27963;&#21205;&#22996;&#21729;&#20250;&#65288;PAC&#65289;&#12399;&#12289;&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#12289;&#12452;&#12540;&#12469;&#12522;&#12450;&#12512;&#65288;ETH&#65289;&#12289;XRP&#12394;&#12393;&#12391;&#32004;750&#19975;&#12489;&#12523;&#65288;&#32004;11&#20740;4000&#19975;&#20870;&#65289;&#12398;&#23492;&#20184;&#12434;<a href=\"https:\/\/docquery.fec.gov\/cgi-bin\/forms\/C00867937\/1828468\/#SUMMARY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#38598;&#12417;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;<\/a>&#12290;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12399;5&#26376;&#12289;&#20027;&#35201;&#20505;&#35036;&#32773;&#12392;&#12375;&#12390;&#21021;&#12417;&#12390;&#20206;&#24819;&#36890;&#36008;&#12391;&#12398;&#23492;&#20184;&#21463;&#12369;&#20837;&#12428;&#12434;&#34920;&#26126;&#12375;&#12383;&#12290;<\/p><p>&#38750;&#21942;&#21033;&#30435;&#35222;&#22243;&#20307;&#12497;&#12502;&#12522;&#12483;&#12463;&#12539;&#12471;&#12481;&#12474;&#12531;&#12398;&#22577;&#21578;&#12395;&#12424;&#12427;&#12392;&#12289;&#20170;&#22238;&#12398;&#36984;&#25369;&#12469;&#12452;&#12463;&#12523;&#12391;&#12399;&#12289;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#12505;&#12540;&#12473;&#12420;&#12522;&#12483;&#12503;&#12523;&#12289;&#12450;&#12531;&#12489;&#12522;&#12540;&#12475;&#12531;&#12539;&#12507;&#12525;&#12454;&#12451;&#12483;&#12484;&#12394;&#12393;&#20027;&#35201;&#20225;&#26989;&#12363;&#12425;&#21069;&#22238;&#12398;&#32004;13&#20493;&#12398;&#36039;&#37329;&#12364;&#27969;&#20837;&#12375;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#36039;&#29987;&#36939;&#29992;&#20250;&#31038;Bitwise&#12398;&#12472;&#12455;&#12501;&#12539;&#12497;&#12540;&#12463;&#25126;&#30053;&#36012;&#20219;&#32773;&#12399;22&#26085;&#12289;2024&#24180;&#31859;&#22823;&#32113;&#38936;&#36984;&#12391;&#12489;&#12490;&#12523;&#12489;&#12539;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12364;&#21213;&#21033;&#12375;&#12383;&#22580;&#21512;&#12289;&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#65288;BTC&#65289;&#20385;&#26684;&#12364;92000&#12489;&#12523;&#65288;&#32004;1400&#19975;&#20870;&#65289;&#12414;&#12391;&#19978;&#26119;&#12377;&#12427;&#21487;&#33021;&#24615;&#12364;&#12354;&#12427;&#12392;&#20104;&#28204;&#12375;&#12383;&#12290; &#20998;&#25955;&#22411;&#20104;&#28204;&#24066;&#22580;&#12398;&#21205;&#21521;&#12363;&#12425;&#20385;&#26684;&#20104;&#28204; &#12497;&#12540;&#12463;&#27663;&#12399;&#20998;&#25955;&#22411;&#20104;&#28204;&#24066;&#22580;Polymarket&#65288;&#12509;&#12522;&#12510;&#12540;&#12465;&#12483;&#12488;&#65289;&#12395;&#12362;&#12369;&#12427;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12398;&#21213;&#21033;&#30906;&#29575;&#12392;&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#20385;&#26684;&#12398;&#30456;&#38306;&#38306;&#20418;&#12434;&#20998;&#26512;&#12290;&#12381;&#12398;&#32080;&#26524;&#12289;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12398;&#24403;&#36984;&#12364;&#12499;&#12483;&#12488;&#12467;&#12452;&#12531;&#24066;&#22580;&#12395;&#22823;&#12365;&#12394;&#24433;&#38911;&#12434;&#19982;&#12360;&#12427;&#21487;&#33021;&#24615;&#12364;&#12354;&#12427;&#12392;&#25351;&#25688;&#12375;&#12383;&#12290; Charting $BTC price against Trump\u2019s odds (via @Polymarket) from 8\/15 to 10\/20 reveals some wild swings\u2014particularly when Harris and Trump took turns leading. By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000 Take that as you will pic.twitter.com\/OGy8M3Vju1 &mdash; Jeff Park (@dgt10011) October 22, 2024&#29694;&#22312;&#12398;&#19990;&#35542;&#35519;&#26619;&#12391;&#12399;&#12459;&#12510;&#12521;&#12539;&#12495;&#12522;&#12473;&#27663;&#12364;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12395;&#23550;&#12375;&#12390;1.8%&#12398;&#12522;&#12540;&#12489;&#12434;&#20445;&#12387;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290;&#19968;&#26041;&#12391;&#12509;&#12522;&#12510;&#12540;&#12465;&#12483;&#12488;&#12391;&#12399;&#12289;&#12488;&#12521;&#12531;&#12503;&#27663;&#12364;&#22823;&#12365;&#12394;&#12522;&#12540;&#12489;&#12434;&#35211;&#12379;&#12390;&#12362;&#12426;&#12289;&#26263;&#21495;&#36890;&#36008;&#65288;&#20206;&#24819;&#36890;&#36008;&#65289;&#25237;&#36039;&#23478;&#12398;&#38291;&#12391;&#21213;&#21033;&#12408;&#12398;&#26399;&#24453;&#12364;&#39640;&#12414;&#12387;&#12390;&#12356;&#12427;&#12290; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":541,"featured_media":131822,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[45],"editors":[328],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-131818","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-btc","editors-yamada"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u6c0f\u52dd\u5229\u3067\u30d3\u30c3\u30c8\u30b3\u30a4\u30f31400\u4e07\u5186\u304b\uff5cBitwise\u304c\u5927\u80c6\u4e88\u6e2c<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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