{"id":180574,"date":"2026-05-21T09:04:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T09:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/news\/clarity-act-crypto-passage-probability-galaxy-digital-alex-thorn\/"},"modified":"2026-05-20T11:13:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T11:13:15","slug":"crypto-75-de-chances-pour-la-loi-clarity-en-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/news\/crypto-75-de-chances-pour-la-loi-clarity-en-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Crypto : 75 % de chances pour la loi CLARITY en 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Alex Thorn, responsable de la recherche chez Galaxy Digital, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankless.com\/podcast\/clarity-act-alex-thorn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">revu \u00e0 la hausse son estimation<\/a> concernant la probabilit\u00e9 que le CLARITY Act devienne une loi en 2026.<\/p><p>Cette pr\u00e9vision atteint d\u00e9sormais 75 %, une augmentation spectaculaire par rapport aux 50 % qu&rsquo;il pr\u00e9disait encore en avril dernier.<\/p><p>Le facteur d\u00e9clenchant a \u00e9t\u00e9 un vote de 15 contre 9 au sein de la commission bancaire du S\u00e9nat le 14 mai, marquant le premier signal bipartisan significatif pour ce projet de loi.<\/p><p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"tr\" dir=\"ltr\">Clarity Act y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girecek mi?<br><br>Galaxy Digital Y\u00f6neticisi Alex Thorn: &quot;Bu ihtimalin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebilirim.<br><br>A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 %75&#39;lik bir ihtimalden s\u00f6z edebiliriz!&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XBxNehVXOa\">pic.twitter.com\/XBxNehVXOa<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Kripto Market (@ikriptomarket) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ikriptomarket\/status\/2056839470637367381?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><p>Bien que le ralliement de deux d\u00e9mocrates ne garantisse pas encore l&rsquo;adoption finale, ce changement a fait bondir le mod\u00e8le de pr\u00e9vision de Thorn de 25 points de pourcentage, un \u00e9cart qui constitue l&rsquo;\u00e9v\u00e9nement majeur de cette semaine.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le chemin vers une signature pr\u00e9sidentielle : pourquoi 75 % n&rsquo;est pas 100 %<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>Le m\u00e9canisme l\u00e9gislatif m\u00e9rite une attention particuli\u00e8re. Le CLARITY Act doit encore obtenir 60 voix au S\u00e9nat pour contrer toute tentative d&rsquo;obstruction (filibuster), avant de passer par une conciliation avec la Chambre des repr\u00e9sentants et d&rsquo;obtenir la signature pr\u00e9sidentielle.<\/p><p>Le calendrier mis \u00e0 jour par Thorn, publi\u00e9 dans le bulletin hebdomadaire de Galaxy Research le 16 mai, se d\u00e9cline comme suit : conciliation entre les commissions des banques et de l&rsquo;agriculture du S\u00e9nat d\u00e9but juin, examen en s\u00e9ance pl\u00e9ni\u00e8re au S\u00e9nat mi-juin, adoption finale par le S\u00e9nat avant fin juin, conciliation avec la Chambre en juillet, et une signature potentielle par Donald Trump la semaine du 3 ao\u00fbt.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/20110405\/content-inline-1-18.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/figure><p>De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, la Maison Blanche pousse pour un objectif plus agressif fix\u00e9 au 4 juillet. Le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Congr\u00e8s<\/a> dispose d&rsquo;environ neuf semaines de session au S\u00e9nat avant les vacances du 10 ao\u00fbt, date apr\u00e8s laquelle les l\u00e9gislations de fond progressent rarement lors d&rsquo;un cycle \u00e9lectoral de mi-mandat. Cette fen\u00eatre de neuf semaines repr\u00e9sente toute la marge de man\u0153uvre disponible.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un changement de nature dans le soutien politique<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>Ce qui a modifi\u00e9 le mod\u00e8le de Thorn n&rsquo;est pas seulement le nombre de voix, mais la nature m\u00eame de ces votes. Ruben Gallego (Arizona) et Angela Alsobrooks (Maryland) ont rejoint les 13 r\u00e9publicains de la commission pour faire avancer le texte.<\/p><p>Le compromis Tillis-Alsobrooks sur le rendement des stablecoins, qui a r\u00e9solu un diff\u00e9rend structurel sur la possibilit\u00e9 pour les d\u00e9tenteurs de percevoir des int\u00e9r\u00eats, a lev\u00e9 le risque sp\u00e9cifique que Thorn consid\u00e9rait comme le plus susceptible de freiner l&rsquo;\u00e9lan bipartisan. <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/news\/sec-tokenized-equity-pilot-clarity-act-senate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">L&rsquo;arriv\u00e9e du projet de loi devant le S\u00e9nat<\/a> n&rsquo;est plus une hypoth\u00e8se, c&rsquo;est d\u00e9sormais le sc\u00e9nario de base.<\/p><p>Cependant, tout le monde ne partage pas cet optimisme de 75 %. Kristin Smith, pr\u00e9sidente du Solana Policy Institute, \u00e9value la probabilit\u00e9 de passage \u00e0 60 %. \u00ab En th\u00e9orie, nous avons tout ce qu&rsquo;il faut \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Smith. \u00ab Mais beaucoup de choses peuvent encore mal tourner. \u00bb Les parieurs sur Polymarket \u00e9valuaient le passage en 2026 \u00e0 68 % au 18 mai, en hausse par rapport aux 46 % du d\u00e9but du mois, mais toujours en dessous de l&rsquo;estimation de Thorn.<\/p><p>L&rsquo;opposition persistante de la s\u00e9natrice Elizabeth Warren, invoquant des motifs d&rsquo;\u00e9thique et de lutte contre le blanchiment d&rsquo;argent, n&rsquo;est toujours pas r\u00e9solue. De plus, les clauses d&rsquo;\u00e9thique restreignant la d\u00e9tention d&rsquo;actifs num\u00e9riques par les hauts fonctionnaires cr\u00e9ent des frictions avec certains bureaux parlementaires qui r\u00e9clament des exemptions, ce qui pourrait compliquer le d\u00e9compte final des voix.<\/p><p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">JUST IN: \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 Senator Elizabeth Warren says the crypto Clarity Act will &quot;blow up the economy.&quot;<br><br>&quot;It pushes more of the economy into crypto!&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4LbDiU2hUV\">pic.twitter.com\/4LbDiU2hUV<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WatcherGuru\/status\/2055022920074743916?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 14, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><p>L&rsquo;analyse de Thorn place les enjeux bien au-del\u00e0 du court terme. Il d\u00e9crit le CLARITY Act et son compagnon, le GENIUS Act, comme le type de l\u00e9gislation crypto fondamentale qui a \u00ab pos\u00e9 les bases de 100 ans de domination des march\u00e9s de capitaux am\u00e9ricains \u00bb.<\/p><p>Andreessen Horowitz a dress\u00e9 la m\u00eame comparaison avec le Securities Act de 1933.<\/p><p>Que cette vision se concr\u00e9tise ou non, elle refl\u00e8te l&rsquo;ambition l\u00e9gislative derri\u00e8re ce projet et explique pourquoi un simple vote en commission s\u00e9natoriale provoque de tels mouvements sur les probabilit\u00e9s de march\u00e9.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alex Thorn de Galaxy Digital estime \u00e0 75 % les chances de voir le CLARITY Act adopt\u00e9 en 2026 apr\u00e8s un vote bipartisan d\u00e9cisif au S\u00e9nat am\u00e9ricain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":759,"featured_media":180566,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"editors":[2551],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-180574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","editors-julien-leroy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crypto : 75 % de chances pour la loi CLARITY en 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le responsable de la recherche Galaxy Digital a revu \u00e0 la hausse son estimation la probabilit\u00e9 que le CLARITY Act devienne une loi en 2026\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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