{"id":165719,"date":"2025-09-01T15:35:37","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T15:35:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/?p=165719"},"modified":"2025-09-01T15:35:37","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T15:35:37","slug":"bitcoin-septembre-rouge-2025-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-septembre-rouge-2025-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Septembre Rouge : voici les sc\u00e9narios BTC explosifs de la saison 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin attaque septembre avec un vent de face notable. Apr\u00e8s une chute de 6,49 % en ao\u00fbt, le BTC est de nouveau sur le chemin des 110 000 $. Ce seuil marque l\u2019entr\u00e9e dans un mois historiquement redout\u00e9 : le fameux \u201cRed September\u201d. Depuis 2013, <strong>BTC perd en moyenne 3,77 %<\/strong> durant cette p\u00e9riode, avec huit baisses sur les onze derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Mais 2025 ne ressemble pas aux ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le pattern du \u201cRed September\u201d<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p><strong>Chaque ann\u00e9e, le sc\u00e9nario se r\u00e9p\u00e8te<\/strong> sur l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019\u00e9conomie en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral. Le march\u00e9 se tend fin ao\u00fbt, la liquidit\u00e9 se resserre, et les d\u00e9p\u00f4ts de capitaux sur les exchanges augmentent. Les fonds traditionnels verrouillent leurs pertes fiscales, les capitaux se d\u00e9placent vers les obligations, et les traders reprennent du service apr\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/p><p>En crypto, <strong>ce cycle est amplifi\u00e9<\/strong>. Le trading 24h\/7j et l\u2019effet de levier accentuent la nervosit\u00e9. Comme le note Yuri Berg de FinchTrade, \u201cle march\u00e9 se convainc lui-m\u00eame de vendre, plus par habitude que par fondamentaux\u201d.<\/p><p>Autrement dit, la proph\u00e9tie de septembre devient auto-r\u00e9alisatrice. Or cette ann\u00e9e en particulier, les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques, l\u2019inflation persistante et le poids des flux institutionnels transforment ce mois en <strong>sc\u00e9nario explosif pour les traders<\/strong>.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Here\u2019s what I\u2019m thinking:<br><br>Bitcoin will hit $90-95k in next 50 days.<br><br>Reversal after September 17 will kick off last leg of the bull but the month will close red.<br><br>October &amp; November bull peak ~$200k+.<br><br>December short altseason (bags go 5-10X)<br><br>2026 is for bears.<br><br>Who\u2019s with me? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KcmKGrxoUp\">pic.twitter.com\/KcmKGrxoUp<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CRYPTO\u20bfIRB (@crypto_birb) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/crypto_birb\/status\/1952738700799959382?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 5, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un contexte macro mitig\u00e9<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>En ce mois de septembre 2025, <strong>les vents contraires sont plus puissants<\/strong>. L\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine reste coinc\u00e9e \u00e0 3,1 %. Le niveau de sa dette publique s\u2019envole, <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/news\/usa-37-000-milliards-de-dettes-et-si-le-salut-venait-des-cryptomonnaies\/\">d\u00e9passant les 37 000 milliards $<\/a>, avec des paiements d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats journaliers colossaux.<\/p><p>Ajoutez \u00e0 cela deux conflits majeurs qui perturbent les cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement et des tensions commerciales croissantes. Bref, <strong>le terrain est min\u00e9<\/strong>.<\/p><p>Le contexte g\u00e9opolitique actuel pr\u00e9pare le terrain pour une <strong>forte correction en septembre 2025<\/strong>, estime Daniel Keller d\u2019InFlux Technologies. Bitcoin se comporte aujourd\u2019hui comme un actif \u00e0 risque, donc chaque choc macro peut amplifier la baisse.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les graphiques virent au rouge<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>Techniquement, <strong>la situation s\u2019est d\u00e9grad\u00e9e<\/strong>. BTC est pass\u00e9 sous les 110 000 $, un support cl\u00e9 depuis mai. Les analystes observent d\u00e9sormais la zone des 103 000 $, avec un risque de test des 100 000 $ si la pression s\u2019intensifie.<\/p><p>Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des flux, les donn\u00e9es ETF montrent des sorties de 751 millions $, signe de prudence institutionnelle. Pourtant, un autre signal vient brouiller le tableau. Le nombre de portefeuilles de baleines a atteint un <strong>record de 19 130 adresses<\/strong>, ce qui laisse penser que certains gros acteurs profitent de la baisse pour <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/news\/buy-the-dip-correction-crypto\/\">acheter le dip<\/a>.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La Fed, arbitre du mois de septembre<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>Les prochains jours s\u2019annoncent d\u00e9cisifs. Les march\u00e9s attendent une s\u00e9rie de <strong>publications macro<\/strong> : emploi, commerce, production manufacturi\u00e8re. Tout cela m\u00e8nera au <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomccalendars.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rendez-vous cl\u00e9 du 16-17 septembre<\/a>, date de la r\u00e9union de la Fed.<\/p><p>Le gouverneur Christopher Waller plaide d\u00e9j\u00e0 pour une <strong>baisse<\/strong> de taux de <strong>25 points de base<\/strong>. Selon lui, la banque centrale doit agir vite, sans attendre une aggravation. Le march\u00e9 y croit et le CME FedWatch Tool affiche 90 % de probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une baisse.<\/p><div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/01152637\/image-1-1024x563.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-165734\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/01152637\/image-1-1024x563.png 1024w, https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/01152637\/image-1-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/01152637\/image-1-768x422.png 768w, https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/01152637\/image-1-450x247.png 450w, https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/01152637\/image-1.png 1424w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"><\/figure><\/div><p>Si la Fed assouplit, <strong>Bitcoin pourrait respirer et repartir<\/strong>. Dans le cas contraire, la spirale baissi\u00e8re historique de septembre risque de se prolonger.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios possibles pour BTC en septembre 2025<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p><strong>Sc\u00e9nario baissier<\/strong> : poursuite du sch\u00e9ma historique, cassure des 103 000 $ et test des 100 000 $, aliment\u00e9 par la macro et les sorties institutionnelles.<\/p><p><strong>\u00c9volution neutre<\/strong> : consolidation entre 103 000 et 114 000 $, avec un march\u00e9 qui attend la Fed et dig\u00e8re la volatilit\u00e9.<\/p><p><strong>Sc\u00e9nario haussier<\/strong> : annonce d\u2019une baisse de taux, reprise des flux institutionnels et rebond au-dessus des 114 000 $, avec un potentiel retour vers 120 000 $.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">En fin de compte, un mois sous haute tension<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>Septembre reste le <strong>mois le plus redout\u00e9<\/strong> par les investisseurs crypto. L\u2019histoire joue contre les bulls, la macro nourrit l\u2019incertitude, et les graphiques envoient des signaux d\u2019alerte. Pourtant, l\u2019ombre d\u2019un revirement haussier plane toujours si la Fed choisit de desserrer les conditions mon\u00e9taires.<\/p><p>Une chose est certaine : <strong>la volatilit\u00e9 sera au rendez-vous<\/strong>. Pour les traders, ce \u201cSeptembre Rouge\u201d pourrait bien \u00eatre la meilleure opportunit\u00e9 ou le pi\u00e8ge le plus cruel de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p><hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"><p>Pour aller plus loin sur le sujet : <\/p><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/cryptomonnaie\/predictions-prix-wall-street-pepe\/\">Pr\u00e9dictions du prix Wall Street Pepe (WEPE) 2025<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/news\/lubin-prevision-ether-x100-flip-bitcoin\/\">Ethereum : Joe Lubin pr\u00e9dit un prix x100 et le &#8220;flip&#8221; du Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/fr\/news\/vente-mineurs-prix-bitcoin-danger\/\">Vente massive de mineurs : 485 M$ en BTC \u00e9coul\u00e9s, le prix en danger ?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin attaque septembre avec un vent de face notable. Apr\u00e8s une chute de 6,49 % en ao\u00fbt, le BTC est de nouveau sur le chemin des 110 000 $. Ce seuil marque l\u2019entr\u00e9e dans un mois historiquement redout\u00e9 : le fameux \u201cRed September\u201d. Depuis 2013, BTC perd en moyenne 3,77 % durant cette p\u00e9riode, avec [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":663,"featured_media":165744,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,1,2106],"tags":[],"editors":[2554],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-165719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","category-news","category-price-predictions","editors-ronan-gaillard"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Septembre Rouge : Bitcoin face \u00e0 des sc\u00e9narios explosifs en 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Historique baissier, contexte macro et r\u00e9union cl\u00e9 de la Fed : d\u00e9couvrez les sc\u00e9narios explosifs qui pourraient secouer le BTC ce 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