{"id":5902,"date":"2025-12-19T07:44:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T07:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/?p=5902"},"modified":"2025-12-17T11:36:59","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T11:36:59","slug":"bitcoin-v-roce-2025-oslabil-oproti-zlatu-o-50-muze-se-trend-v-roce-2026-otocit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/bitcoin-v-roce-2025-oslabil-oproti-zlatu-o-50-muze-se-trend-v-roce-2026-otocit\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin v roce 2025 oslabil oproti zlatu o 50 %! M\u016f\u017ee se trend v roce 2026 oto\u010dit?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rok 2025 p\u0159epsal dynamiku mezi bitcoinem a zlatem.<\/strong> Zat\u00edmco tradi\u010dn\u00ed drah\u00fd kov t\u011b\u017eil z nejistoty na glob\u00e1ln\u00edch trz\u00edch, bitcoin v relativn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed zaostal<\/strong>. Ne\u0161lo v\u0161ak o sign\u00e1l zpochyb\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd narativ nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed kryptom\u011bny<\/a>, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e o d\u016fsledek extr\u00e9mn\u00edch makroekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 hr\u00e1ly ve prosp\u011bch konzervativn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch aktiv<\/strong>.<\/p>

Tento posun je patrn\u00fd na pom\u011brov\u00e9m ukazateli BTC\/XAU<\/strong>, tedy pom\u011bru vyjad\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edm, kolik unc\u00ed zlata odpov\u00edd\u00e1 hodnot\u011b jednoho bitcoinu<\/strong>. Zat\u00edmco na konci roku 2024<\/strong> se tento pom\u011br pohyboval kolem 40 unc\u00ed<\/strong>, v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku 2025 klesl zhruba na polovinu<\/strong> \u2013 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b k hranici 20 unc\u00ed<\/strong>. Relativn\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost bitcoinu v\u016f\u010di zlatu se tak v\u00fdrazn\u011b zhor\u0161ila.<\/p>

Pro\u010d v roce 2025 dominovalo zlato jako uchovatel hodnoty<\/h2><\/span>

Zlato se v roce 2025 stalo hlavn\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm bezpe\u010dn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstavem<\/strong>. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku zaznamenalo r\u016fst o 63 %<\/strong> a ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed p\u0159ekonalo hranici 4 000 dolar\u016f za unci<\/strong>. <\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

Rok 2025 p\u0159inesl siln\u00fd r\u016fst ceny zlata a\u017e k \u00farovni 4 400 USD za unci. zdroj: TradingView<\/p>

Tento r\u016fst byl mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fd zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee prob\u00edhal navzdory p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdm m\u011bnov\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m<\/strong>. Americk\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby z\u016fst\u00e1valy po v\u011bt\u0161inu roku na restriktivn\u00edch \u00farovn\u00edch a Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m p\u0159istoupil k prvn\u00edmu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb a\u017e v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed<\/strong>. <\/p>

Za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed by takov\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed p\u0159edstavovalo siln\u00fd tlak na bezv\u00fdnosov\u00e1 aktiva<\/strong>, mezi n\u011b\u017e zlato tradi\u010dn\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed. P\u0159esto jeho cena prudce rostla, co\u017e nazna\u010duje struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bnu v chov\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f<\/strong>.<\/p>

Kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli sehr\u00e1ly centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 v roce 2025 masivn\u011b navy\u0161ovaly sv\u00e9 zlat\u00e9 rezervy. Do \u0159\u00edjna dos\u00e1hly ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1kupy 254 tun zlata<\/strong>, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nejaktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed byla Polsk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 sama p\u0159idala 83 tun<\/strong>.<\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

Akumulace zlata centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami v roce 2025. Zdroj: World Gold Council<\/p>

Sou\u010dasn\u011b do\u0161lo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu obratu na trhu zlat\u00fdch ETF. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zlat\u00e9 ETF fondy nav\u00fd\u0161ily sv\u00e9 dr\u017eby o 397 tun u\u017e v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku<\/strong>, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v listopadu dos\u00e1hly <\/a>rekordn\u00edch 3 932 tun<\/strong>. \u0160lo o jasn\u00fd kontrast oproti roku 2023, kdy investo\u0159i z t\u011bchto fond\u016f kapit\u00e1l sp\u00ed\u0161e stahovali.<\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

Toky kapit\u00e1lu do zlat\u00fdch ETF a v\u00fdvoj ceny zlata. Zdroj: World Gold Council<\/p>

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee tyto n\u00e1kupy prob\u00edhaly i v dob\u011b, kdy re\u00e1ln\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f v rozvinut\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch dosahovaly v druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru 1,8 %<\/strong>. P\u0159esto zlato ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed vzrostlo o 23 %<\/strong>, co\u017e potvrzuje signalizuje struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed decoupling od historick\u00e9 inverzn\u00ed korelace s v\u00fdnosy.<\/strong><\/p>

Dal\u0161\u00edm faktorem byla rostouc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nejistota. Index volatility VIX se v roce 2025 pohyboval v pr\u016fm\u011bru na hodnot\u011b 18,2, zat\u00edmco v roce 2024 \u010dinil pouze 14,3<\/strong>. Sou\u010dasn\u011b geopolitick\u00e9 rizikov\u00e9 indexy vzrostly meziro\u010dn\u011b o 34 %<\/strong>.<\/p>

Zlato v tomto prost\u0159ed\u00ed fungovalo nejen jako ochrana proti riziku, ale tak\u00e9 jako strategick\u00e1 pojistka portfoli\u00ed<\/strong>. Jeho korelace s akciemi se sn\u00ed\u017eila na \u22120,12<\/strong>, co\u017e je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed hodnota od roku 2008<\/strong>. To potvrzuje, \u017ee popt\u00e1vka po zlat\u011b byla ta\u017eena jak kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm, tak struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed alokac\u00ed kapit\u00e1lu.<\/p>

Bitcoin p\u0159edvedl v roce 2025 solidn\u00ed v\u00fdkon, ale zaostal za zlatem<\/h2><\/span>

Z pohledu absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edsel si bitcoin<\/strong> v roce 2025 nevedl \u0161patn\u011b. Cena se dostala do \u0161esticifern\u00fdch hodnot<\/strong>, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm zdrojem popt\u00e1vky byly spotov\u00e9 bitcoinov\u00e9 ETF<\/strong>. P\u0159esto v\u0161ak bitcoin zaostal za zlatem v relativn\u00edm srovn\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong>, zejm\u00e9na ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku.<\/p>

Spotov\u00e9 bitcoinov\u00e9 ETF zaznamenaly siln\u00fd start \u2013 spravovan\u00e1 aktiva (AUM) vzrostla z<\/strong> 120 miliard dolar\u016f v lednu<\/strong> na 152 miliard dolar\u016f v \u010dervenci 2025<\/strong>. Od t\u00e9 doby v\u0161ak n\u00e1sledoval pozvoln\u00fd pokles na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 112 miliard dolar\u016f<\/strong>, zp\u016fsoben\u00fd \u010dist\u00fdmi odlivy b\u011bhem cenov\u00fdch korekc\u00ed.<\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

Objem spravovan\u00fdch aktiv ve spotov\u00fdch bitcoinov\u00fdch ETF v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku 2025. Zdroj: SoSoValue<\/p>

Tento v\u00fdvoj ost\u0159e kontrastoval s trvale pozitivn\u00edmi toky do zlat\u00fdch ETF<\/strong>, co\u017e d\u00e1le pos\u00edlilo rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdkonnosti obou aktiv.<\/p>

On-chain data potvrzuj\u00ed f\u00e1zi distribuce<\/h2><\/span>

Tak\u00e9 on-chain data<\/strong> nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee bitcoin v roce 2025 \u010delil zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9mu prodejn\u00edmu tlaku. Podle dat analytick\u00e9 platformy Glassnode realizovali dlouhodob\u00ed dr\u017eitel\u00e9 (LTH) b\u011bhem velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti \u010dervence zisky p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed jednu miliardu dolar\u016f denn\u011b<\/strong>. Jde o jedno z nejmasivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch obdob\u00ed v\u00fdb\u011bru zisk\u016f<\/strong> v historii trhu.<\/p>

A\u010dkoli se tlak v srpnu do\u010dasn\u011b zm\u00edrnil, ke konci roku se prodeje znovu rozb\u011bhly<\/strong>. V \u0159\u00edjnu prodali dlouhodob\u00ed dr\u017eitel\u00e9 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 300 000 BTC<\/strong>, v hodnot\u011b zhruba 33 miliard dolar\u016f<\/strong>, co\u017e p\u0159edstavovalo nejagresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed distribuci od prosince 2024<\/strong>.<\/p>

Celkov\u00e1 nab\u00eddka dr\u017een\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00fdmi investory se tak sn\u00ed\u017eila z 14,8 milionu BTC v polovin\u011b \u010dervence<\/strong> na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 14,3 milionu BTC<\/strong> v dob\u011b psan\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

Distribuce star\u0161\u00edch BTC se ke konci roku znovu zrychluje. Zdroj: Glassnode<\/p>

V\u011bt\u0161inu roku 2025 se lidem v\u00edc vyplatilo m\u00edt pen\u00edze na spo\u0159ic\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech nebo v dluhopisech<\/strong>, proto\u017ee nesly slu\u0161n\u00fd \u00farok bez rizika<\/strong>. Bitcoin se nav\u00edc choval jako akcie \u2013 kdy\u017e padaly trhy, padal i on<\/strong>. Naopak zlato vyst\u0159elilo nahoru, proto\u017ee ho v\u0161ichni kupovali jako jistotu v nejist\u00e9 dob\u011b.<\/strong> <\/p>

Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto te\u010f bitcoin ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zlatem vypad\u00e1 slab\u0161\u00ed. <\/strong>Sou\u010dasn\u00fd pokles v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1 selh\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edch princip\u016f kryptom\u011bny<\/strong>. Jde o b\u011b\u017enou tr\u017en\u00ed rotaci kapit\u00e1lu, kdy investo\u0159i do\u010dasn\u011b up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed tradi\u010dn\u00ed pojistky<\/strong>. Fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edla a budouc\u00ed potenci\u00e1l BTC z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nedot\u010deny.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rok 2025 p\u0159epsal dynamiku mezi bitcoinem a zlatem. Zat\u00edmco tradi\u010dn\u00ed drah\u00fd kov t\u011b\u017eil z nejistoty na glob\u00e1ln\u00edch trz\u00edch, bitcoin v relativn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed zaostal. Ne\u0161lo v\u0161ak o sign\u00e1l zpochyb\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd narativ nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed kryptom\u011bny, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e o d\u016fsledek extr\u00e9mn\u00edch makroekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 hr\u00e1ly ve prosp\u011bch konzervativn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch aktiv.Tento posun je patrn\u00fd na pom\u011brov\u00e9m ukazateli BTC\/XAU, tedy pom\u011bru vyjad\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edm, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":638,"featured_media":3973,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,28],"tags":[16,17,34,18,21],"editors":[51],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-5902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-krypto","tag-kryptomeny","tag-zlato","editors-roman-blecha"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin v roce 2025 oslabil oproti zlatu o 50 %! M\u016f\u017ee se trend v roce 2026 oto\u010dit?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rok 2025 v\u00fdrazn\u011b prom\u00edchal karty na trz\u00edch. Jak si v nov\u00e9 realit\u011b vedl bitcoin a pro\u010d se investo\u0159i p\u0159iklonili k tradi\u010dn\u00edm jistot\u00e1m?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/bitcoin-v-roce-2025-oslabil-oproti-zlatu-o-50-muze-se-trend-v-roce-2026-otocit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin v roce 2025 oslabil oproti zlatu o 50 %! M\u016f\u017ee se trend v roce 2026 oto\u010dit?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Rok 2025 v\u00fdrazn\u011b prom\u00edchal karty na trz\u00edch. 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M\u016f\u017ee se trend v roce 2026 oto\u010dit?","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/bitcoin-v-roce-2025-oslabil-oproti-zlatu-o-50-muze-se-trend-v-roce-2026-otocit\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/bitcoin-v-roce-2025-oslabil-oproti-zlatu-o-50-muze-se-trend-v-roce-2026-otocit\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/cimg.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/10\/22075155\/1761119515-bitcoin-3327922_1280.jpg","datePublished":"2025-12-19T07:44:00+00:00","description":"Rok 2025 v\u00fdrazn\u011b prom\u00edchal karty na trz\u00edch. 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