{"id":5345,"date":"2025-12-02T05:49:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T05:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/?p=5345"},"modified":"2025-12-01T08:29:26","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T08:29:26","slug":"ocekavani-snizeni-sazeb-fedu-roste-prichazi-chvile-kdy-bitcoin-opet-vystreli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/ocekavani-snizeni-sazeb-fedu-roste-prichazi-chvile-kdy-bitcoin-opet-vystreli\/","title":{"rendered":"O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb Fedu roste: P\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed chv\u00edle, kdy bitcoin op\u011bt vyst\u0159el\u00ed?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin (<\/strong>BTC<\/strong><\/a>) se ani p\u0159es kr\u00e1tk\u00fd r\u016fstov\u00fd impuls nedok\u00e1zal vr\u00e1tit nad \u00farove\u0148 93 000 dolar\u016f<\/strong>. A to p\u0159esto, \u017ee americk\u00e9 akcie i zlato pokra\u010duj\u00ed v pozitivn\u00edm trendu<\/strong>. Index S&P 500 se nyn\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed jen zhruba procento pod sv\u00fdm historick\u00fdm maximem, tak\u017ee obchodn\u00edci op\u011bt \u0159e\u0161\u00ed, co by mohlo bitcoinu dodat trvalej\u0161\u00ed pozitivn\u00ed momentum<\/strong>. <\/p>

<\/p>

\"btc
Bitcoin (BTC)<\/div>
<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>
24h<\/span>7d<\/span>30d<\/span>1y<\/span>All time<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/canvas><\/div>

Podle \u00fadaj\u016f z Fedwatch tool od CME Group<\/strong> trh v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161il pravd\u011bpodobnost prosincov\u00e9ho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb Fedu na 87 %<\/strong>. To je v\u00fdrazn\u00e1 zm\u011bna tr\u017en\u00edho sentimentu, proto\u017ee je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed t\u00fddnem to bylo jen 71 %<\/strong>.<\/p>

\n
\"V\u00fdhled
V\u00fdhled trhu na prosincov\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed Fedu o sazb\u00e1ch. Zdroj: CME Group FedWatch Tool<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb Fedu rostou, ale bitcoinov\u00ed trade\u0159i z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed opatrn\u00ed<\/h2><\/span>

Tento dramatick\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed vyvolala slab\u0161\u00ed data z americk\u00e9ho pracovn\u00edho trhu<\/strong>. Po\u010det pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edch \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed o podporu v nezam\u011bstnanosti vzrostl na 1,96 milionu<\/strong>. Slab\u0161\u00ed trh pr\u00e1ce je obvykle sign\u00e1lem pro uvoln\u011bn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky, d\u00edky \u010demu\u017e investo\u0159i okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159ehodnotili v\u00fdhled.<\/p>

Do toho vstupuje bitcoin, jeho\u017e deriv\u00e1tov\u00e9 trhy vykazuj\u00ed zaj\u00edmavou sm\u011bs opatrnosti a stabiln\u00edho z\u00e1jmu<\/strong>. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenov\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed zat\u00edm nep\u0159im\u011blo tradery zm\u011bnit sv\u00e9 strategie.<\/p>

Futures<\/strong><\/a> na bitcoin<\/strong> se i b\u011bhem v\u00edkendu obchodovaly s p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b \u010dty\u0159procentn\u00ed pr\u00e9mi\u00ed oproti spotov\u00fdm cen\u00e1m<\/strong> \u2014 tedy na stejn\u00e9 \u00farovni jako minul\u00fd t\u00fdden. Za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch podm\u00ednek se p\u0159itom o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 rozp\u011bt\u00ed mezi 5 % a 10 %<\/strong>. Men\u0161\u00ed premium tak znamen\u00e1, \u017ee obchodn\u00edci po ned\u00e1vn\u00edm osmn\u00e1ctiprocentn\u00edm poklesu ceny z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed opatrn\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>

\n
\"Annualizovan\u00e1
Annualizovan\u00e1 futures basis bitcoinu \u2014 tedy rozd\u00edl mezi spotovou cenou a futures kontrakty p\u0159epo\u010dten\u00fd na ro\u010dn\u00ed b\u00e1zi. Zdroj: Laevitas.ch<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

Pod\u00edvejme se tak\u00e9 na op\u010dn\u00ed trh<\/strong>.<\/p>

Put opce (s\u00e1zky na pokles) maj\u00ed v posledn\u00edch dnech v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed objemy ne\u017e call opce<\/strong>. Jako neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed se p\u0159itom bere situace, kdy je pom\u011br put a call pr\u00e9mi\u00ed 1,3kr\u00e1t nebo m\u00e9n\u011b<\/strong>. A\u010dkoliv se trh u\u017e vzd\u00e1lil extr\u00e9mn\u00ed hodnot\u011b 5x z 21. listopadu, aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee trh se \u00fapln\u011b nezbavil obav z dal\u0161\u00edho poklesu<\/strong>.<\/p>

\n
\"Put-to-call
Put-to-call premium volumes pro BTC opce na Deribitu. Zdroj: Laevitas.ch<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

ETF a korpor\u00e1tn\u00ed n\u00e1kupy bitcoinu stagnuj\u00ed<\/h2><\/span>

Dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed skl\u00e1danky jsou spotov\u00e9<\/strong> bitcoinov\u00e9 ETF<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 b\u011bhem t\u00fddne kon\u010d\u00edc\u00edho 28. listopadem zaznamenaly pouze 70 milion\u016f USD nov\u00fdch \u010dist\u00fdch p\u0159iliv\u016f<\/strong>. Na ETF, kter\u00e9 se ve sv\u00fdch za\u010d\u00e1tc\u00edch staly sv\u011btov\u00fdm rekordmanem v rychlosti p\u0159\u00edlivu kapit\u00e1lu, je to velmi slab\u00fd v\u00fdsledek<\/strong>.<\/p>

Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 opatrnost panuje i mezi spole\u010dnostmi, kter\u00e9 dr\u017e\u00ed bitcoin<\/a> jako sou\u010d\u00e1st firemn\u00edch rezerv<\/strong>. Podle dat z CoinGlass \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z t\u011bchto firem za posledn\u00ed dva t\u00fddny sv\u00e9 dr\u017eby nezv\u00fd\u0161ila<\/strong>. <\/p>

\n
\"Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed
Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed korpor\u00e1tn\u00ed dr\u017eitel\u00e9 BTC. Zdroj: CoinGlass<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

Strategy naposledy nakupovala 17. listopadu<\/strong>. Do toho se objevily spekulace kolem SpaceX<\/strong> \u2013 na dv\u011b nov\u00e9 adresy se p\u0159esunulo 1 163 BTC<\/strong>, co\u017e okam\u017eit\u011b vyvolalo ot\u00e1zky, zda nejde o p\u0159\u00edpravu na prodej. <\/p>

\n
\"SpaceX
SpaceX p\u0159esunula 1 163 BTC v hodnot\u011b zhruba 102 milion\u016f dolar\u016f na dv\u011b nov\u00e9 adresy. Zdroj: Nansen \/ X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

Zat\u00edm ale nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda \u0161lo jen o zm\u011bnu custody, nebo zda firma Elona Muska skute\u010dn\u011b redukuje sv\u00e9 rezervy, proto\u017ee zat\u00edm nic ofici\u00e1ln\u011b neozn\u00e1mila<\/strong>.<\/p>

Zlato i st\u0159\u00edbro let\u00ed vzh\u016fru, bitcoin sleduje vlastn\u00ed cestu<\/h2><\/span>

Do hry vstupuj\u00ed i geopolitick\u00e9 faktory. B\u011bhem sv\u00e1tk\u016f v USA Donald Trump znovu potvrdil, \u017ee pl\u00e1nuje v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 \u0161krty v dan\u00edch z p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 chce financovat v\u00fdnosy z dovozn\u00edch cel. Tento krok m\u016f\u017ee d\u00e1le zvy\u0161ovat nap\u011bt\u00ed kolem americk\u00e9ho dluhu, co\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inou podporuje aktiva s omezenou nab\u00eddkou \u2014 typicky zlato nebo bitcoin. <\/p>

A skute\u010dn\u011b: zlato v posledn\u00edm t\u00fddnu pos\u00edlilo o 4 %<\/strong> a st\u0159\u00edbro vysko\u010dilo na historick\u00e9 maximum<\/strong>.<\/p>

\n
\"Zlato
Zlato (modr\u00e1) i st\u0159\u00edbro (fialov\u00e1) za posledn\u00ed t\u00fdden solidn\u011b pos\u00edlily. Zdroj: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

Do toho p\u0159i\u0161la pozitivn\u00ed zpr\u00e1va z technologick\u00e9ho sektoru<\/strong>. Google p\u0159edstavil vlastn\u00ed TPU \u010dip<\/strong>, d\u00edky kter\u00e9mu jeho model Gemini p\u0159ekonal benchmarky v matematice, k\u00f3dov\u00e1n\u00ed i multimod\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00faloh\u00e1ch<\/strong>. Tento \u010dip m\u00e1 z\u00e1rove\u0148 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu energie ne\u017e klasick\u00e9 GPU, co\u017e uklidnilo obavy z r\u016fstov\u00e9ho v\u00fdhledu Nvidie.<\/p>

Akcie Alphabetu b\u011bhem t\u00fddne vzrostly o<\/strong> 6,8 %<\/strong>, co\u017e v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011blo ke stabilizaci sentimentu v cel\u00e9m technologick\u00e9m sektoru.<\/p>

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee bitcoin<\/a> se st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b pohybuje v tandemu s technologick\u00fdmi akciemi<\/strong>. Korelace mezi BTC a indexy jako S&P 500 \u010di Nasdaq kles\u00e1, co\u017e ukazuje, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed kryptom\u011bna za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 sledovat vlastn\u00ed trajektorii<\/strong>.<\/p>

\n
\"Index
Index S&P 500 (vlevo) vs. bitcoin (vpravo). Zdroj: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

\u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le se bitcoin dr\u017e\u00ed v bl\u00edzkosti hranice 90 000 dolar\u016f, t\u00edm v\u00edce posiluje sebev\u011bdom\u00ed b\u00fdk\u016f. Pomoci mohou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edlivy do ETF, m\u00e9n\u011b defenzivn\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed na trhu deriv\u00e1t\u016f i celkov\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed likvidita<\/strong>, pokud skute\u010dn\u011b dojde ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb Fedu<\/strong>.<\/p>

V takov\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee bitcoin op\u011bt z\u00edskat dostatek s\u00edly, aby se znovu za\u010dal p\u0159ibli\u017eovat \u00farovni 100 000 dolar\u016f<\/strong>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin (BTC) se ani p\u0159es kr\u00e1tk\u00fd r\u016fstov\u00fd impuls nedok\u00e1zal vr\u00e1tit nad \u00farove\u0148 93 000 dolar\u016f. A to p\u0159esto, \u017ee americk\u00e9 akcie i zlato pokra\u010duj\u00ed v pozitivn\u00edm trendu. Index S&P 500 se nyn\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed jen zhruba procento pod sv\u00fdm historick\u00fdm maximem, tak\u017ee obchodn\u00edci op\u011bt \u0159e\u0161\u00ed, co by mohlo bitcoinu dodat trvalej\u0161\u00ed pozitivn\u00ed momentum. Podle \u00fadaj\u016f z […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":638,"featured_media":5354,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,28],"tags":[88,16,17,36,24,59,73,18,326,38,330,20],"editors":[51],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-5345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","tag-akcie","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-etf","tag-fed","tag-futures","tag-instituce","tag-kryptomeny","tag-opce","tag-strategy","tag-urokove-sazby","tag-usa","editors-roman-blecha"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nO\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb Fedu roste: P\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed chv\u00edle, kdy bitcoin op\u011bt vyst\u0159el\u00ed?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb Fedu roste, bitcoin reaguje zdr\u017eenliv\u011b. 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